Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Friday morning’s temperatures were the coolest observed so far this autumn. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, lows across the Hill Country and Central Texas generally ranged between the mid 30s and the mid-40s. Across the coastal plains, lows were generally in the mid and upper 40s. The lowest observed temperature was 33 degrees at gauges located just northwest of Austin, to the west of Junction, and in western Bastrop and Fayette Counties. In Austin, Camp Mabry reported a low of 42 degrees, while Austin-Bergstrom Airport recorded a low of 37.

Weather conditions are quiet and fall-like as we close out the workweek. However, milder temperatures will be returning tonight and Saturday as southeasterly breezes return to the area. Wind speeds will be light Friday afternoon and Friday night, but look to increase to 10-15 mph Saturday afternoon. Expect a mostly sunny sky through Saturday.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s
• Lows Saturday morning will be in the low and mid-50s
• High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be near 78-80 degrees
• Lows Sunday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast

Numerous changes in the weather are forecast to take place Sunday into Monday as a West Coast trough of low pressure tracks from northern Mexico to the southern Plains states. To the east of the trough, clouds and moisture will begin to stream north into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Sunday morning. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, isolated to scattered rain showers are forecast to develop across the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent, with rain amounts staying below a tenth of an inch.

Heading into Sunday night, attention will turn to West Texas where a Pacific cold front associated with the upper trough will be pushing to the east. With a moist and a unstable atmosphere in place, forecasts call for a large area of rain and thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the cold front. The area of rain and storms is predicted to spread east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday night, reaching the coastal region Monday morning.

There will be a threat for some of the storms to be strong to severe Sunday night. While the greatest severe weather threat is expected to be across West and North Texas, there will also be a threat for severe storms across the Hill Country and the northern Counties of Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western and central Hill Country under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe storms through 6 am Monday.  A 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms extends east to the I-35 corridor. A risk for severe storms is predicted to extend south close to the Austin area from late Sunday night into Monday morning.

The primary severe weather threat is expected to be damaging downburst winds. However, a threat for large hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be entirely ruled out.

The area of rain and storms is forecast to spread east across the Hill Country after midnight Sunday night, reaching the Austin/Central Texas region near or just after sunrise Monday morning. The area of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to spread across the coastal plains region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. The rain should taper off across the Hill Country after sunrise Monday, the Austin/Central Texas area around midday Monday, and the coastal area in the mid to late afternoon.

Rainfall from Sunday and Monday’s rain and storms is predicted to heaviest across West and North Texas, with lower totals across the Hill Country and Central Texas. The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through Monday calls for totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas, with totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches at most other locations. Isolated heavier totals will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 pm next Wednesday:

Drier and slightly cooler air is forecast behind the cold front Monday afternoon as the sky clears from west to east. Breezy north winds with gusts to 25 mph are forecast Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Wind speeds should decrease late Monday night into Tuesday. The sky will be sunny Tuesday.

• High temperatures Monday will range from the low 70s west, to the low 80s near the coast
• Lows Tuesday morning will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s near the coast
• Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s.
• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the low 50s near the coast

A stronger, Canadian cold front is forecast to spread south across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing a surge of cooler air. No rain is expected with the front. Northwesterly winds will increase to 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

Cold air behind this front may bring the first freeze of the season to parts of the Hill Country next Thursday morning. Sunny and slowly warming temperatures are predicted for late week, continuing into the following weekend.

Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Tropical Weather Update

 Tropical Storm Sara developed over the western Caribbean Sea Thursday. As of midday Friday, the system was still over the western Caribbean and centered about 170 miles east of Belize City, Belize. Maximum sustained winds were  near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.

Sara is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph. A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday.

After moving across the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico does not appear very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico and spread northeast toward Florida.

Sara poses no threat to the Texas coast.

Don’t Miss Friday Night’s Super-Full Moon

Friday night’s full moon is often call the Beaver, or Frosty moon. As a bonus, Friday night’s moon is near the point in its orbit where it is closest to Earth. This makes it a supermoon. In fact, it’s the last of four supermoons in a row. Friday night, the bright, round full moon will be climbing in the east, as night falls. We’ll all find the moon glowing high in the south near midnight and dropping low in the west near sunrise.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

A dry and quiet weather pattern is in place across the region as we kick off the new week. This quiet pattern is forecast to remain in place through late week as a weak ridge of high pressure holds in place over the region. Changes in the weather pattern are predicted for next week as rain returns to the forecast along with some indications for cooler temperatures.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday night

Expect a sunny sky with warm afternoons and cool night. High temperatures both days  are forecast to be in the low and mid 80s. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will range from the low 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 50s at all other locations. Northeasterly winds Monday afternoon look to become southeasterly on Tuesday. Wind speeds should be in the range of 5-10 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night

A trough of low pressure pushing east out of the Rockies will help to push a Pacific cold front across the state on Wednesday. Unfortunately, there won’t be enough moisture in place to cause any rain along the front. The cold front is predicted to reach the Hill Country around midday, then move across Central Texas and the coastal plains regions Wednesday afternoon. Dry and slightly cooler air will follow the cold front. Expect a mostly sunny sky. Northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph will follow the front Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 70s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday morning will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s across the coastal plains.

Thursday through Saturday

Northerly breezes are forecast Thursday, but southeasterly breezes look to return Friday, bringing a slow return of moisture. Expect a sunny to mostly sunny sky through the period.

• Highs are forecast to be in the mid-70s Thursday, the upper 70s Friday, and the low 80s Saturday.
• Lows Friday morning will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s across the coastal plains
• Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the low and mid-50s
• Low Sunday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s, and be near 70 degrees across the coastal plains

Next Sunday into Monday

Forecast solutions call for a trough of low pressure to track from northwestern Mexico, northeast to the Four Corners region. The tough is expected to pull considerable moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in the development of a mostly cloudy sky. There will be a slight chance for some spotty light rain across the region beginning Sunday evening, continuing through Monday afternoon. Rain amounts, if any, should total under a tenth of an inch.

The chance for rain will diminish late Monday as the trough exits to the northeast. Partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast next Tuesday.

Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure track northeast out of Mexico and move across the Panhandle region next Wednesday into Thursday. This system is predicted to bring a better chance and a more widespread coverage of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region next Wednesday into Thursday.

A fairly potent cold front is forecast to push south across the area next Wednesday and is expected to bring some of the coolest air so far this autumn. High temperatures next Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the 60s. Lows next Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to fall to the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the mid-40s across Central Texas, and the upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Tropical Weather Update

Hurricane Raphael fell apart rapidly across the west-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. The system was declared a post-tropical system Sunday afternoon.

NHC forecasters are monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western Caribbean Sea. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

This system doesn’t look to pose a threat to Texas as steering currents should eventually take it off to the northeast.

Evening Passes of the International Space Station

The ISS will be making visible passes across the area each evening this week (except for Friday). The most favorable pass is expected to occur Tuesday evening, lasting for 6 minutes.

Check out all of the viewing information for you location at spotthestation.nasa.gov

Have a good week!

Bob

A swath of heavy rain, averaging between 4 and 7 inches, fell across parts of Northwest Texas and the Concho Valley late Thursday night. Some of this rain also spread over the area between Coleman and Abilene, producing totals of 3-5 inches over the upper watershed of Pecan Bayou. The large area of rain is being generated by a vigorous low pressure system located over eastern New Mexico and an associated Pacific cold front.

The Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor regions will see an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the Pacific cold front slowly pushes to the east. Friday’s morning analysis showed a moist and moderately unstable atmosphere covering the region ahead of the cold front. The front is  expected to become the focus for the development of a somewhat disorganized line of storms that will push east out of the Edwards Plateau. Forecasts call for the cold front to slowly push east across the Hill Country Friday afternoon, reaching the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor around 6-8 pm. Some pockets of locally heavy rain may develop due to the cold front moving so slowly. The probability for rain will be near 70-80 percent through Friday evening.

Do note there will be a low end threat for a few isolated strong to severe storms with the area of rain. The Storm Prediction Center has placed both regions under a Marginal Threat, or a 1 out of 5 threat, for severe thunderstorms through Friday night. The primary severe threats look to be large hail and damaging straight-line winds, although an isolated weak tornado cannot be totally ruled out.

The chance for rain is forecast to slowly taper off from west to east across the Hill Country late this afternoon, and across the Austin/I-35 corridor this evening. Rain amounts from the showers and thunderstorms are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with a couple of isolated 2-3 inch totals possible.

For the eastern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, there will be a 50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the moist and unstable atmosphere out ahead of the cold front.  Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch. The chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue overnight and into Saturday as the cold front slowly pushes east out of Central Texas. The threat for strong or severe storms appears low. Rain amounts Friday evening through Saturday afternoon are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. However, a coupe of locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. The rain is forecast to taper off across Central Texas Saturday morning, and across the coastal region around mid-afternoon Saturday.

A mostly sunny sky is forecast Saturday in the wake of the cold front. There isn’t much cool air behind the front, but the air will be noticeably drier. Dry weather with a sunny to mostly sunny sky is forecast Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas. Interestingly, the same cold front pushing south across Texas is also expected to help steer Hurricane Raphael to the west and southwest away from Texas over the coming days.

High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s. Highs Sunday through next Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 80s. Lows will range from the upper 40s and low 50s west, to the low 60s near the coast.

Forecasts call for another cold front to sweep across the area sometime late Wednesday or Thursday. As of now, no rain is expected with the front due to a lack of moisture. Sunny and slightly cooler weather should follow late next week. Expect highs to fall to the low 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Tropical Weather Update

Hurricane Rafael has recently lost a little strength, but it remains a powerful hurricane. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 mph on the south side of a ridge of high pressure that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest.

As of 9 am CST, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located about 535 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Rafael was moving toward the west near 9 mph. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Raphael is forecast to become just a remnant low pressure area early next week.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

An active period of weather is expected to take place across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions beginning late Monday afternoon, continuing through the overnight hours. There will be a risk for some of the storms to become severe around the Austin area and the eastern counties of Central Texas Monday evening  and Monday night.

A vigorous trough of low pressure located over eastern New Mexico is forecast to lift to the northeast late Monday, and will help to push a Pacific cold front eastward across Texas Monday evening and Monday night. In advance of the cold front, expect a cloudy and humid afternoon, with 40-50 percent chance for isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain amounts should total less than a quarter inch. High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, and gusts to near 30 mph.

Forecasts call for the cold front to reach the Hill Country late Monday afternoon/Monday evening, the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between roughly 11 pm and 2 am, and the coastal area between 6 and 8 am Tuesday. High resolution forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to rapidly develop along the cold front when it reaches the eastern Hill Country late Monday afternoon. The area of rain and thunderstorms is then forecast to slowly spread southeast across Central Texas Monday evening. Atmospheric conditions across North Texas, extending south into Central Texas, appear somewhat favorable for the development of strong to severe storms as the line of storms moves across Central Texas.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Austin area and the eastern half of Central Texas under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through 6 am Tuesday. A Marginal Risk, or a 1 out of 5 risk, is forecast for the remainder of the region. The primary severe weather risk is expected to be strong and damaging straight-line winds. However there will be low probabilities for large hail and isolated tornadoes.

Forecasts call for rain and thunderstorms to persist behind the cold front across the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region through the overnight hours. Some pockets of locally heavy rain will be possible. The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and the Austin area by about daybreak Tuesday. The area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread across the coastal region after midnight Monday night and continue through late morning Tuesday.

A large gradient in rainfall is predicted with Monday’s night’s rain and storms. Forecasts call for totals to average less than a quarter inch across the western and central Hill Country, but total around a half inch across the eastern Hill Country. For Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, expect totals to average close to an inch, with isolated higher totals to near 2 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Tuesday:

Tuesday morning, the rain should taper off from west to east across the eastern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Clouds will clear from west to east Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A mostly clear sky is forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Noticeably cooler temperatures will develop behind the cold front.

• High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper 60s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-70s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning  will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s
• Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid-50s west, to the mid and upper 60s near the coast

Clouds and moisture are forecast to rapidly return off the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night ahead of a new trough of low pressure that will be sinking south out of the southern Rockies. This trough is forecast to reach the Four Corners region late Thursday, then lift northeast to the southern Plains on Friday. As moisture levels increase, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region late beginning late Wednesday night. Periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms look to continue Thursday through Friday as atmospheric lift increases ahead of the trough. The most favorable period for rain is forecast to occur Thursday afternoon into Friday. The chance for rain is forecast to decrease late Friday night into Saturday morning as a Pacific cold front moves across the area, bringing drier and cooler air.

Rain amounts between Wednesday night and Saturday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas.

A mostly sunny to partly cloudy  sky is forecast this weekend, continuing through the first half of next week. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s, rising into the low 80s next Tuesday. Lows are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s.

Longer-range forecasts call for a cold front to push south across our area sometime late next Wednesday or Thursday. There will be a chance for a little rain along the front, but rain amounts should stay below a quarter inch. This front looks to bring in cooler air for late next week, with highs falling to the upper 60s to low 70s, and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The area of disturbed weather that has persisted across the southwestern Caribbean Sea since late last week organized into a Tropical Storm Rafael Monday afternoon.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 11-04-24 2:10 pm CST

As of 4 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. Rafael was  moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later Monday night and is forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late Monday night, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Although the system will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, it poses no threat to the Texas coast. The cold front pushing south into the Gulf late this week should turn the storm toward the central Gulf coast instead of moving further to the west. The National Hurricane Center is predicting this system to make landfall as a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane somewhere across Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama coasts on Friday.

Have a good week!

Bob

As we start off the month November, I’m happy to say we’re entering a weather pattern that looks to bring our region cooler/less hot temperatures along with some chances for rain. The broad ridge of high pressure which has dominated our region’s weather all of October has finally shifted to the east. This change will enable a series of low pressure troughs and cold fronts to spread across Texas over the next week, bringing chances for rain and cooler temperatures.

Friday’s weather will feature a mostly cloudy sky across the region. The cold front which pushed south through the area Thursday is quickly returning north as a warm front, bringing a surge of low-level moisture. Although plenty of moisture will be in place, Friday’s atmosphere is lacking a significant trigger for rain. As a result, there will be just a 20 percent chance for a few passing showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through Friday night. Significant rain is not expected. For locations south of Interstate 10, the chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be near 40 percent Friday afternoon, decreasing to 20 percent Friday night. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch. Friday’s high temperature will range from the upper 70s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-80s across the coastal plains.

This weekend and into Monday, there will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region as a large trough of low pressure sinks south from the northern Rockies into the Desert Southwest. East of the trough, a series of compact disturbances are predicted to track from west to east across the northern half of Texas. These disturbances look to help spark the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 30 percent Saturday through Monday afternoon. Rain amounts through late Monday are predicted to average close to a quarter inch. A few isolated heavier totals will be possible.

Expect a mostly cloudy to partly cloudy sky through the period. Breezy southerly winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts to near 25/30 mph will be also be in place. Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally be in the mid to upper 80s.

The biggest change in the weather and the best chance for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur Monday night into Tuesday morning when the trough out west lifts to the north, allowing a Canadian cold front to sweep south through Texas. Forecasts call for the cold front to reach the northern Hill Country late Monday evening, the Austin area in the hours after midnight, and the coastal region around sunrise on Tuesday.  Forecasts call for a large area rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front when it moves across our region. There will be  a small potential for some of the thunderstorms to be strong to possibly severe mainly—mainly for areas along and to the east of Interstate 35.

The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions before sunrise Tuesday, and across the coastal plains, by mid-morning. Rain amounts from the line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.75 inches across the Hill Country, and between 0.75 and 1.25 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 6 pm Wednesday:

Noticeably cooler air will follow Monday night’s cold front, and this cool air is forecast to remain in place through late next week and next weekend. Expect a mostly sunny sky Tuesday and Wednesday.

• Daily high temperatures Tuesday through Friday will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s across the coastal plains
• Lows will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s and low 60s across the coastal plains

Longer-range forecasts call for a chance for rain to return to the forecast late next week as another trough of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Desert Southwest. Rain amounts from this system are not expected to be very heavy.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. NHC forecasters indicate an area of low pressure is likely to form over this area in a couple of days. Gradual development will be possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to drift generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Ensemble forecast solutions are split on where this system will track. Some solutions show the system heading west to Mexico in another week, while others show the system coming north toward Florida. It’s too early to have much confidence in either solution. With next week’s cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico, there is very little chance this system could move toward Texas and the western Gulf.

NHC forecasters note a separate trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system will be possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.

NHC forecasters are giving this system only a ten percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Time Change Weekend

This is time change weekend. Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this Sunday morning, November 3rd,  at 2 am. At that time, we will move to standard time. Remember to “fall back” and set clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

The dry and summer-like weather pattern we’ve seen through all of October will finally begin to change this week as the heat dome shifts to the east, allowing moisture to spread inland off the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of increasing moisture, a weak cold front, and passing storm system is expected to cause the development of scattered, mainly light rain showers across the area Tuesday through Friday, with the best chance for rain occurring Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Additional chances for rain are forecast this weekend and the first half of next week as a trough of low pressure stalls across northern Mexico. While rain is forecast throughout much of the week, I do want to caution this period of wet weather is not expected to put a significant dent in the drought. Total rain amounts through Monday are forecast to generally average around 1 inch. Temperatures do look to trend down a bit later this week, but highs are forecast to still be in the 80s.

A large trough of low pressure pushing inland across the Pacific Northwest is causing low pressure to develop across  the southern Rockies, which in turn is increasing the pressure gradient across Texas. The stronger gradient is causing brisk southerly breezes and sustained speeds of 10-20 are forecast Monday afternoon through Wednesday night. Gusts to 25 mph are forecast Monday afternoon and Monday night. Occasional gusts to 35 and 40 mph are predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday’s weather is shaping up to be partly cloudy, breezy, and quite warm. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-80s across the Hill Country and between 88 and 90 degrees at most other locations. Due to the increased moisture in place, lows Tuesday morning will be significantly milder, ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s towards the coast.

Tuesday’s weather will start off with widespread low clouds. These clouds will slowly give way to a partly to mostly cloudy sky in the afternoon. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few spotty light rain showers across parts of the Austin/Central Texas area Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts, if any, should average below a tenth of an inch. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows Wednesday morning once again look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday’s weather will feature an increasing chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area in the afternoon and evening as moisture levels increase and pool ahead of a weak cold front sagging south into Texas. The chance for rain will be near 40 percent. Rain amounts Wednesday through Wednesday evening are forecast to average under a quarter inch. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.

The chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms will increase to around 60-70 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning after midnight Wednesday night and continue through Thursday afternoon as a weak Pacific cold front sags to the south, stalling just to the north of Austin. The chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to increase across the coastal plains region Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. The threat for strong to severe storms will be  low as the main forcing for storms is expected to remain well to our north, up around the Red River. The chance for rain should diminish late Thursday afternoon as the parent trough exits to the northeast. Rain amounts through Thursday afternoon are forecast to generally average around a half inch. High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid-80s.

The outlook for Thursday evening’s trick or treat activities calls for just a 20 percent chance for spotty light rain showers around the area. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy sky with temperatures in the 70s.  

Friday, continuing through the weekend, forecasts call for the weather pattern to remain unsettled as a large trough of low pressure begins to settle south along the West Coast. Disturbances flowing around the trough and across Texas are expected to cause a 20-30 percent chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the period. Daily rain amounts are forecast to generally average between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the 60s.

The National Weather Service’s Cumulative Rainfall Valid through 6 pm next Monday:

For next week, forecast solutions indicate the unsettled weather pattern will continue through late week as the trough of low pressure remains parked across the western and southwestern U.S. There will be a chance for light rain each day. Cooler temperatures are forecast beginning sometime around the middle of the week when a Canadian cold front moves through the area. High temperatures late week are forecast to fall to the 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development will be possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Note: this system poses no threat to the western Gulf of Mexico.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Time Change Weekend

This weekend will be time change weekend. Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this Sunday, November 3rd,  at 2 am. At that time, we will move to standard time. Remember to “fall back” and set clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.

Bob

A resilient, late-summer-like weather pattern will continue over the weekend and the first half of next week thanks to a persistent ridge of high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. With the ridge in place, no significant change in the weather is forecast through next Tuesday. A pattern of late night clouds and afternoon sunshine looks to continue.

In the near-term, forecasters are keeping watch on a weak cold front that slipped south into Northwest Texas Thursday night. The front is expected to spread south into the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Friday afternoon into Friday evening, stalling just to the north of Austin and Fredericksburg Friday night. No rain is forecast with the cold front. Areas north of the front are predicted to see slightly cooler temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. The front is forecast to return back to the north on Saturday.

Southerly winds with speeds of 5-10 mph and occasional gusts to 15 mph are predicted Friday afternoon through Monday.

Breezy to somewhat windy conditions are forecast to develop next Tuesday and Wednesday as the pressure gradient strengthens across the state ahead of a storm system across the West. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and occasionally gusts of 30-35 mph. Note: the combination of very warm temperatures, gusty winds, and critically dry vegetation may  be sufficient for fire initiation and fire spread. Continue to avoid activities that could produce fire starts and remember to obey local burn bans and regulations.

• High temperatures Friday through Tuesday are forecast to generally be between  88 and 90 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Hill Country high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-60s across Central Texas, to the upper 60s near the coast
• Lows Sunday morning through Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country, and in the mid and upper 60s at most other locations

Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure to push inland along the coast of California and the Pacific Northwest early next week. The trough is forecast to push east across the Rockies then turn northeast into central and northern Plains the second half of next week. In addition, the trough is forecast to finally push the persistent ridge of high pressure off to the east, finally opening the door for some weather changes across our region.

Moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico beginning next Wednesday.  With a less stable atmosphere in place, there will be a 20 percent chance for some scattered, spotty, afternoon and rain showers across the region. Rain amounts, if any, will only average around a tenth of an inch.

A somewhat better chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms is forecast late Wednesday night through Thursday when a Pacific cold front sags southeast into the area. As of now, it’s not clear how far south the front will track, but conditions ahead of and along the front appear favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The probability for rain will near 30-40 percent. Rain amounts Thursday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Longer-range forecasts call for just a slight chance for rain across the region next Friday. This will be followed by a slightly better chance for rain next weekend and the early part of the following week as an area of low pressure stalls over the southwestern U.S.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:

Temperatures are predicted to trend slightly cooler late next week into next weekend, with highs falling to the mid 80s. A change to more fall-like temperatures are forecast beginning sometime around Sunday the 3^rd, when a Canadian cold front pushes south across the area. High temperatures the week of November 4^th are forecast to be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s. Could fall finally be making an appearance???

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Atlantic basin. Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Update

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (pronounced “tzeh-chin-SHAHN”) continues to shrink and fade as it recedes into the distance in the western sky right after nightfall. It is now too faint to be seen with the unaided eye, but it’s still a fine target for binoculars and telescopes. Look for it in beginning in late twilight well above Venus. The comet will remain visible through late October and into early November.

Courtesy Sky and Telescope

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Dry and quiet weather continues across the region as we start off this last full week of October. While the recent spell of weather has been pleasant, the month has been unusually dry. All locations have reported zero, or next to zero rainfall. This development is highly unusual as October is typically the second or third wettest month of the entire year. If no rain falls between now and the end of the month, records show this will go down in record territory as the driest or one of the very driest Octobers on record.

Monday’s weather maps showed Texas and the south central U.S. remaining under the influence of a stable ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. To the north of the ridge, the storm track is currently positioned between the Pacific Northwest and southeastern Canada. Forecast solutions call for the storm track to remain well to the north of Texas throughout the week, continuing into early next week. As a result, the weather is expected to stay dry across our region for at least another week.

The most noticeable change in the weather this week will likely be slightly warmer temperatures—both in the afternoon and also at night. South and southeasterly breezes developing this afternoon and tonight are forecast to bring slightly more humid air north from the Gulf of Mexico. This layer of moisture will be quite shallow, but it may be just enough to cause the development of some late night and early morning clouds across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. These clouds should burn off by about mid-morning.

Winds throughout the week are expected to remain fairly light, with speeds of just 5-10 mph.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon are forecast to generally be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas and coastal regions, and in the upper 80s across the Hill Country
• Low temperatures throughout the week are forecast to be in the low 60s.

Very little change in the weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. Forecasts do call for a weak cold front to sink south across Texas Saturday into Saturday night. The atmosphere will be too dry for any rain to develop along the front. Temperatures look to cool only a couple of degrees, with highs both days generally in the mid and upper 80s. Lows are forecast to be near 60-62 degrees. The cold front will cause the wind to shift out of the north behind the front, with speeds increasing to a range of 10-15 mph.

Looking out into next week, some notable changes in weather will be possible in the second half of the week. For Monday through Wednesday, more sunny and dry weather is forecast. High temperatures will continue in the mid and upper 80s, with lows in the low and mid-60s.

The stagnant ridge of high pressure which has been parked over our region for most of October is forecast to finally get suppressed to the south as a large trough of low pressure pushes inland across the western U.S. The trough is forecast to track east across the Plains states and help drag a Pacific cold front across Texas sometime just after Halloween. Conditions are finally shaping up to be somewhat favorable for the development of rain just ahead of and along the cold front late next week. Cooler temperatures are predicted behind the cold front, with highs in early November falling close to 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Stay tuned for more details as the modeling gets a better handle on the changing pattern late next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical storm Oscar is the only system of note in Atlantic basin. Oscar formed rather suddenly over the weekend across the southwestern Atlantic/northeastern Caribbean.

As of early Monday afternoon, the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located about 50 miles northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight re-strengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Oscar is forecast to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba Monday afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central

Bahamas on Tuesday. Oscar poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5-7 days.

Have a great week!

Bob

Quiet, pleasant, and fall-like weather is in place as we close out the workweek. A stable ridge of high pressure covering the eastern half of the country is keeping the storm track well up to our north and west, resulting in continued dry weather. Friday’s weather maps did show a trough of low pressure over the western and southwestern U.S. The trough is pulling clouds and a limited amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, northwest across Texas and into the Desert Southwest. These clouds will likely persist across the area through Saturday then diminish Sunday as the trough lifts off to the northeast. Expect a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky Friday afternoon through Saturday. A weak disturbance embedded within this flow off the Gulf may produce a few spotty, light showers across parts of Central Texas Friday afternoon. However, no significant rain is forecast.

Unfortunately, the atmosphere will likely be too dry to support the development of any additional rain.

Southeasterly breezes with gusts to near 25 mph are forecast  Friday afternoon through Saturday. Wind speeds Sunday are forecast to decrease to a range of 10-15 mph. Due to the southeasterly breezes, temperatures are forecast to trend slightly warmer through the weekend.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to generally be in the low 80s
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• Lows Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, and the upper 50s to low 60s across the remainder of the region

Sunny, dry, and warmer weather is forecast next week as the ridge of high pressure to our east shrinks and sets up over the south central U.S. Once again, this will keep the storm track well up to the north of Texas. With a stronger ridge in place, temperatures are forecast to trend warmer, with a return of the 90s.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas area and coastal region, and near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country
• Low temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-60s

Looking out further into next weekend and the last few days of October, the long-range forecast solutions show some minor changes in the weather pattern. The ridge of high pressure across Texas is forecast to weaken, but there are no signs of a strong cold front or significant trigger for rain taking place across Texas. High temperatures are forecast to trend a little lower, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the mid-60s. Some forecast solutions do show a slight chance for rain developing the last couple of days of the month.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather, but neither system poses a threat to the western Gulf of Mexico or the Texas coast.

Across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low have become a little better defined over the past day to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of days.

Across the southwestern Atlantic, to the north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, a trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend for a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph. The system is forecast to track north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected beyond this weekend due to strong upper-level winds developing early next week. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a ten percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Elsewhere, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.

Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS Update

Naked-eye observations of Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS aren’t as easy as they were a few nights ago. The comet is starting to dim as it moves further away from Earth. Nevertheless, observers say the comet is still an easy target for binoculars and smartphones. Look to the western sky starting about 45 minutes after sunset. Find the bright planet Venus and look up a bit higher up in the sky. (see sky map below)

A tip if you use your phone camera, point your phone toward the west and take a 10 second exposure in Night Mode to see the comet.

Have a great weekend!

Bob