Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

We’re closing out the workweek with dry and quiet weather conditions thanks to an August-like heat dome/ridge of high pressure spreading to the east out of northern Mexico. Forecasts call for the heat dome to become centered across Texas early next week and remain over the area through late in the week. With the heat dome in place, hot temperatures and little to no rain will be the primary weather stories for this weekend and all of next week.

While the temperature for the first twelve days of September has been somewhat tolerable, August-like heat and humidity looks to be making a return visit Friday afternoon, continuing through the weekend, and early next week. The temperature could possibly reach triple digits at a few Hill Country and Central Texas locations. A sunny to mostly sunny sky will be in place through the period. Light southerly winds are forecast—mainly in the range of 5 to 10 mph.

• High temperatures Friday through Monday are forecast to be near 97-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

While our region will be under the influence of the heat dome this weekend, some of the high resolution forecasts call for a small wave of low pressure to spread east out of northern Mexico on Saturday. Increasing moisture ahead of this wave may help to generate an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm across parts of the Interstate 35 corridor Saturday afternoon. Due to the stable presence of the heat dome, the chance for rain will be below 20 percent. Again, a very low probability for any rain.

Sunny and hot weather will continue Tuesday through Friday as the heat dome remains over Texas. Forecasts show daily high temperature coming down a couple of degrees as the heat dome weakens slightly.

• High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low 90s across the coastal plains

Looking out a little further into next weekend and the week of September 23rd, little change is forecast. The heat dome over Texas is predicted to shift back more to the west. With less influence from the heat dome, it should open the door for moisture and a few widely scattered rain showers to spread north from the Gulf. However, no widespread or heavy rain is likely. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low to mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The remnants of Francine are currently spreading north across the middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 09/13/24 1:50 pm CDT

Out in the central tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gordon has developed, with top winds of 40 mph.. Gordon is forecast to continue moving to the west through the weekend and weaken slightly. Gordon is predicted to eventually turn to the north over the open Atlantic.

NHC forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave located over the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions don’t appear favorable for development through the weekend. Forecasters are also watching the area off the coast of the southeastern U.S., where a non-tropical low pressure area could form along a frontal boundary over the weekend. The low may develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.

Neither of these two systems pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere, weather conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5-7 days.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Key Messages

• The 10 am NHC forecast track for Francine has shifted a bit more to the east
• Very little to no rain is forecast for the Austin area and the Hill Country. A few showers will be possible Wednesday for the area between Austin and Columbus
• Gusty winds and scattered showers are forecast for areas south of Interstate 10 Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts are predicted to stay below a quarter inch.
• Francine is forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf coast of Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening

Discussion

Although Francine appears to be getting better organized on satellite and Doppler radar, it has not yet translated into an increase in the wind speeds at the surface. The National Hurricane Center’s 10 am update indicated Francine was still a tropical storm, with maximum winds of 65 mph. The tropical storm was centered about 130 miles east-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Strengthening is forecast  through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight, and be a high-end category one hurricane at landfall.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 09-10-24 2:30 pm CDT

Francine is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph.  A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday afternoon, then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. Francine is forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf coast of Louisiana sometime late Wednesday afternoon.

Based on the latest forecast track for Francine, the storm is expected to bring very few, if any weather impacts to the Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas area. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few light showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area between Bastrop and Columbus late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a tenth of an inch. Expect northerly winds at 10-15 mph.

For Wharton and Matagorda Counties, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts through Wednesday are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across Wharton County and less than a half inch across Matagorda County. Expect northerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to 30/35 mph.

A water rise of 1 to 3 feet above normally dry ground (4.0-5.0 ft above MLLW) is forecast for the middle and upper Texas coast. This will be somewhat similar in magnitude to the water level experienced with Tropical Storm Alberto in June, and 2 to 3 feet lower than what occurred with Hurricane Beryl. Minor coastal flooding can be expected on Wednesday at the times of high tide.

The strongest winds are predicted to remain offshore of the middle and upper Texas coast.

WPC Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Friday:

Dry and warmer weather is forecast across the entire region late week and through the weekend as the summer heat dome makes a return appearance. There will be a slight chance for rain Sunday into Monday.

Bob

Morning satellite imagery shows the structure of the tropical disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has improved significantly and now shows a large mass of clouds and thunderstorms surrounding the low pressure area. Data from an Air-Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is providing enough evidence to suggest a well-defined circulation now exists.

NOAA/Colorado State University 09-09-24 10:30 am CDT

As of 10 am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, roughly 245 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual intensification is expected through Tuesday, with more significant intensification expected Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is forecast to strengthen into a category 1hurricane before it reaches the Louisiana coast Wednesday.

Francine is currently moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of today, followed by a faster motion and a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track calls for Francine to continue moving to the northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, with the storm making landfall somewhere along the southwestern or central Gulf coast of Louisiana Wednesday evening. The center of Francine is predicted to pass roughly 175 to 200 miles east of the middle Texas coast Tuesday night.

National Hurricane Center 10 am CDT Advisory 4 for Tropical Storm Francine:

Impacts

Based on the latest forecast track for Francine, few  impacts can be expected across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor over the next couple of days. For areas east of Interstate 35, including Bastrop and Fayette Counties, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning after midnight Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less. Northeast winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 can be expected Wednesday.

The greatest impacts from Francine are expected for areas located to the south of Interstate 10. Clouds and scattered rain showers are forecast to spread over the area Tuesday, continuing Tuesday night through Wednesday. The most favorable period for rain is forecast to be on Wednesday, with a probability of rain near 80 percent. Northeasterly winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph, with gust to 30/35 mph Tuesday, continuing in that range Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are forecast across Wharton and Matagorda Counties through Wednesday.

With increasing northeasterly winds expected along the upper Texas coast over the next couple of days, considerable sea water will be pushed toward the coast. This is expected to result in water level rises of 1-3 feet above normal dry ground near the middle and upper Texas coasts.

Rainfall Forecast

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast calls for the heaviest rains with Francine to remain over the Gulf waters and into much of Louisiana.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Thursday:

Bob

A quick update on recent developments in the Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a large area of clouds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico associated with a tropical wave and an elongated area of surface low pressure. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph on its western side. According to the Hurricane Center, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form over this general area during the next day or so. NHC is giving this system a 90 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 09/08/2024 12:30 pm CDT

Forecasts call for an area of high pressure to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico the next couple of days, helping to create a south-southeast to north-northwesterly steering flow over the southwest and western Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to help pull the tropical disturbance toward the western Gulf of Mexico. Over the next few days, the system is forecast to track to the northwest, then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico, and upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.

Much of the latest forecast guidance brings this system into the range of a moderate to possibly strong tropical storm by mid week. Conditions over the southern and western Gulf are generally favorable for development, but the dry air currently in place across Texas may limit the intensity of the system.

While there is much uncertainty in the eventual track of this system, this morning’s suite of computer-forecast solutions showed fairly good agreement for the center of the tropical system to track just offshore of the middle Texas coast some time around Wednesday, then skirting or remaining just off the upper Texas coast late week. But I will caution it is still early and these are just model forecast solutions. The track could end up being closer to the middle Texas coast, or further inland. Track uncertainty will remain fairly high until forecasters and the models are able to establish a more organized and coherent system.

With the current track uncertainty, it is also leading to uncertainty in the forecast for rainfall. A path inland would likely bring a better chance for rain to much of Central Texas, while a path off the coast would lead to little or no rain for Central Texas. It will also affect the totals of rain across the coastal plains. The Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast from midday Sunday calls for the highest amounts of rain to be across the coastal plains, to the south of Interstate 10, where totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible. Across Central Texas and parts of the Hill Country, totals are predicted to stay quite low.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Sunday:

I will again caution there is still much uncertainty in the forecast until we can get a better handle on this developing system. I urge everyone to keep up with later updates and forecasts.

Bob

A small taste of some fall-like weather is forecast across the region this weekend and early next week as a cold front pushes all the way south into the Gulf of Mexico. Lows Sunday through Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. But before we see this change in the weather, there will be more clouds along with a slight chance for showers Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

Friday’s weather maps showed a broad area of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere centered just off the middle and upper Texas coast. This is the same low that has been over the area for the past week. Forecasts call for the low to finally begin moving off to the south Friday night into Saturday while it merges with the approaching cold front . Similar to what we saw on Thursday, the counterclockwise circulation around the low is expected to push clouds and abundant moisture from northeast to southwest across the eastern half of the state throughout the afternoon. As temperatures warm Friday afternoon, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Heavy rain is not expected. For locations that do see rain, totals are forecast to stay below a quarter inch. Expect a northerly wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

For the middle Texas coast, there will be a somewhat better chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday evening due to the area’s closer proximity to the low. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent. The threat for excessive rain and localized flooding appears to have ended. Totals through Friday evening are forecast to average around a quarter inch. Expect a northerly wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

All of the shower activity is forecast to diminish Friday evening.

A cold front is predicted to push south across the region Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, ushering in slightly cooler and noticeably drier air. After a long summer, this air should feel quite refreshing! The front is expected to reinforce the gusty northerly winds already in place. Forecasts call for northerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, and gusts to 25/30 mph Saturday through Sunday. No rain is expected with the front. The sky will be sunny Saturday through Monday.

• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to generally be in the middle 80s, warming to the upper 80s Monday
• Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, to the mid to upper 60s across the coastal plains
• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be mostly in the low and mid-60s, with upper 60s to low 70s near the coast

Next Week

The sunny and fall-like weather pattern is forecast to come to a fairly abrupt end Tuesday as of southerly breezes bring a return of warm and humid air. A somewhat complex weather pattern looks to take shape over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, with this weekend’s cold front stalling over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a tropical wave currently located over the western Caribbean Sea is predicted to track to the northwestern Gulf  and merge with the stalled cold front. Circulation around the tropical wave is expected bring a surge of clouds and tropical moisture from the coast, north into Central Texas and the Hill Country beginning Tuesday, continuing through late week. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to just how the pattern will evolve. The National Hurricane Center indicates the tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize could develop into a tropical depression and be situated somewhere over the southwestern or western Gulf of Mexico during the early or middle part of next week. Depending on the track and speed of the system, it could bring heavy rain to parts of the middle Texas coast.

The chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to increase across the coastal area Tuesday and across the rest of the region Wednesday trough Friday. The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through 7 pm next Friday calls for totals of at least 1-2 inches for locations east of Interstate 35. Considerably higher totals are forecast for areas close to coast.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be near 88-90 degrees.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Friday through 7 am Next Friday:

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring tropical waves over the northwestern Atlantic, the central tropical Atlantic, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico, The northwest and eastern Atlantic systems have both been given just a slight chance for tropical development over the next 5 to 7 days.

Of special interest is the tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This system is producing a disorganized area showers and thunderstorms.  Forecasters call for the wave to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

It was a wet weekend for much of West Texas, the Hill Country, and coastal locations. A nearly stationary area of low pressure over West Texas brought repeated rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms to the area. Doppler radar estimates since Saturday morning show widespread totals of 4 to 6 inches falling over the area from south of San Angelo to northeast of Abilene. There have also been a few pockets of 8 to 10 inch totals. Across the Colorado River basin, gauge totals since Saturday have generally been between 1 and 2 inches across the western Hill Country. Meanwhile, the northern Hill Country, from Brady to north of Brownwood, has received between 2 and 7 inches. Along the middle Texas coast, totals of 1-2 inches were recorded across Matagorda County. Central Texas totals since Saturday have generally been less than a tenth of an inch.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling  Between 7 am  Saturday and 7 am Tuesday:

Data courtesy NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center

Tuesday’s weather maps continued to show an unsettled pattern across the state. An area of low pressure persists across Northwest Texas, while a weak cold front stretched from Ozona, to Temple, to near Lufkin. Forecasts call for the low pressure system over West Texas to move off to the northeast on Wednesday. The cold front is predicted to slowly push south towards the middle Texas coast late Wednesday.

For Tuesday afternoon Wednesday afternoon, the most favorable area for rain is again forecast to be across West Texas, including the western and northern Hill Country where waves of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50 percent. Additional totals of 1-3 inches will be possible. Isolated totals to near 5 inches can be expected. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for much of West Texas, including the western and northern Hill Country.

For the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions, including Colorado County, periods of light to moderate rain are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Totals through Wednesday afternoon are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

For Wharton and Matagorda Counties, periods of rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 60 percent. Totals through Wednesday afternoon are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

The chance for rain is forecast to decrease significantly across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning Wednesday night as the low pressure system moves off to the northeast and drier air spreads in behind the weak cold front. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few lingering isolated rain showers across the area Thursday afternoon.  Expect a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky. Meanwhile across the coastal plains, a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms looks to continue Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, with additional totals to near 1 inch possible.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast across the entire region Friday as the cold front pushes further to the south, bringing drier and more stable air to the entire region. Expect high temperatures near 88-90 degrees.

Forecasts call for a second, dry cold front to push south across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning that will bring with it considerably drier air. This drier air is expected to be in place through the weekend and early next week. Weather conditions are forecast to be sunny and dry. Weekend high temperatures are predicted to be near 88-90 degrees. Pleasant evenings and nights are forecast thanks to the drier air. Lows Sunday through Tuesday mornings will include the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal plains.

The outlook for next week calls for dry conditions throughout the week as Texas comes under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure situated across northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low 90s, with lows in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The area of low pressure which had been parked off the upper Texas coast since Friday has weakened and the system no longer poses a threat for tropical development. The system is forecast to move off to the northeast over the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves that show a low potential for development over the next few days.

The first wave was located over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  As this system moves westward, some development is possible when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days. The cold front pushing south across Texas this week should keep this system on a westward/northwestward path toward southern Mexico.

The second wave was located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward. By the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional development. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a 10 percent chance for development over the next seven days.

The third tropical wave was located over the far eastern Atlantic. Some slow development of this system will be possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive by the end of the week. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Summer 2024 Climate  

Meteorological summer came to an end Saturday, and while August featured a spell of some very hot weather, the summer overall was less hot and a bit wetter, compared to summer 2023.

In Austin, Camp Mabry’s average temperature was 86.7 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees above normal. Summer 2024 tied with summer 2008 for the 7^th warmest summer on record.

For comparison, summer 2023’s average temperature was 89.4 degrees, which was 4.3 degrees above normal. Summer 2023 was the second hottest summer on record.

Between June 1 and August 31 of 2024, Camp Mabry recorded 30 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees. For comparison, summer 2024 featured 69 days of triple digit temperatures.

Austin recorded 6.33 inches of rain over the summer, which was 2.05 inches below normal.

Bob

The National Hurricane Center’s Friday midday update is now highlighting an area of unsettled weather located off the upper Texas coast that has a low potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

NHC forecasters note a surface trough of low pressure, a reflection of the broad area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, has taken shape over the past few hours. Both features are producing  a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 08-30-24 1:10 pm CDT

According to the National Hurricane Center, this system is expected to meander near the upper Texas coast over the weekend and through much of next week. Some slow tropical development will be possible if the system can stay offshore.  Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.

The NHC is currently giving this system a low chance, a 10 percent chance, for tropical development over the next two days, and a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

While I’m not expecting any significant development of this system this weekend, I urge everyone to keep up with additional updates from the National Hurricane Center.

Weather Discussion

A moist and somewhat unsettled weather pattern is in place as we head into the holiday weekend. While conditions appear favorable for periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms over the weekend, a total washout is certainly not anticipated. Not everyone will see rain on each day. For those planning outdoor activities, be prepared for some scattered shower and thunderstorm interruptions, followed by periods of dry weather. Rain totals through Monday are forecast to be highest across the coastal plains and Edwards Plateau regions, and lowest across Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country.

Friday’s weather maps showed an interesting weather set up for late August. A broad, non-tropical area of low pressure was located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while another area of low pressure was located across southeastern New Mexico. Between the two systems, a moist and slightly unstable atmosphere is in place. Fortunately, the heat dome is nowhere to be found at the current time. Forecasts call for the low over the northwestern Gulf to remain nearly stationary through Labor Day. The circulation around the low will maintain a moist flow of tropical moisture from the coast, northwest to Central Texas and the Hill Country. The abundant tropical moisture and warming afternoon temperatures will be a source for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the low over southeastern New Mexico is forecast to track to the east this weekend, helping to push a rare, weak cold front southeast through the Hill Country and eventually into Central Texas. The upper trough and cold front will both help spark the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region—mainly Sunday through Tuesday.

Breaking the outlook down day-by day:

Friday afternoon and Friday night

 Expect a partly cloudy sky across the region. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and a 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains. Across the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country, the probability for late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be near 50 percent as the cold front slowly sinks to the southeast. Most of the rain activity should diminish by late evening.

For areas that do happen to see rain, totals should average less than a quarter inch, with isolated totals to around 1 inch possible.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s.

Saturday through Saturday Night

Expect a partly cloudy sky across the region. The most favorable area for rain looks to be across the western half of the Hill Country and locations to the south of Interstate 10. Here, the probability for rain is forecast to be near 50-60 percent Saturday through Saturday evening. For the Austin and Central Texas regions, the probability for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening is forecast to be near 40 percent.

For areas that see rain, totals are forecast to average close to a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1.5 inches possible.

High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees.

Sunday through Labor Day

The probability for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to increase to near 70 percent across the region as the cold front stalls over Central Texas and coastal low drifts a bit further to the west. The most favorable period for rain looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours. A higher coverage of rain is anticipated, compared to Friday and Saturday.

Rain amounts each day are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky both days, with high temperatures around 88-90 degrees.

Total Rainfall

Rain amounts between Friday afternoon and next Wednesday morning are forecast to average between 1 and 2 inches across the western Hill Country, and between 2 and 5 inches across Wharton and Matagorda Counties. For most of the Hill Country and Central Texas, totals are forecast to average close to 1 inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Outlook for Next Tuesday through Friday

Forecasts indicate the wet and unsettled pattern will continue as a broad trough of low pressure begins to setup across the central U.S. The most favorable days for rain are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday, where the chance for rain will remain around 50-60 percent. The chance for rain will lower to 30-40 percent next Thursday and Friday. Rain amounts Tuesday through Friday are forecast to average around a half inch to 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.

High temperatures next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on two potential systems located in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, but neither system poses a threat to the Gulf of Mexico through the holiday weekend.

Across the central tropical Atlantic, forecasters are monitoring a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of this system will be possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form sometime next week as the system moves to the west. It is predicted to reach the Lesser Antilles Monday and continue moving west across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a medium, or 40 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

Another tropical wave was located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is currently producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.  However, some slow development of this system will be possible through late next week as the wave continues to move slowly to the west-northwest.

NHC forecasters are currently giving this system a low, 20 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend as we close out the summer season.

Bob

As we close out the month of August, the weather pattern looks to feature periods of rain with temperatures less hot from what we’ve seen lately.  This pattern change is occurring as the center of the heat dome has shifted northeast up to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. With the heat well up to our north, it has allowed a non-tropical area of low pressure to back west into Central Texas out of the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday’s analysis showed the low centered over the Texas Hill Country. A counterclockwise flow around the low is helping to pull considerable tropical moisture inland all the way west to the Edwards Plateau region. Forecasts call for the low pressure system to slowly shift further to the west Wednesday, then become diffuse Thursday into Friday.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, expect a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as moisture continues to spread northwest from the coast. The most favorable period for rain will be in the afternoon and early evening periods. The severe storm threat will be quite low, but some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and dangerous lightning.

For areas that do see rain, amounts both days are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 90-92 degrees.

The outlook for Thursday and Friday calls for a 20-30 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions as tropical moisture remains in place across the area. Spotty rain amounts of a quarter inch and less are forecast. There will be a 60-70 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal region due to a zone of increased tropical moisture. Rain amounts are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. High temperatures both days are predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

For Saturday through Labor Day, expect an increased coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region as a weak cold front sags southeast out of Northwest Texas. At the same time, a new low pressure system is predicted to push west out of the Gulf of Mexico, pulling tropical moisture north from the coast. The two features are expected to cause a 50-60 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and a 70-80 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms across the coastal region. Daily rain amounts are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible. Do note some pockets of locally heavy rain may develop from some of the slower-moving storm cells.

Expect a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky each day, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.

Looking out into next week, forecasts call for a daily chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to continue as the moist flow off the Gulf persists and the heat dome remains off to our west and east. There are some indications for heavier rains developing next Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures next week are predicted to generally be around 88-90 degrees.

Total rain amounts through early next week are forecast to highest across the coastal area and the Edwards Plateau/western Hill Country regions, and lowest across the Interstate 35 corridor. According to the Weather Prediction Center, totals of 2-5 inches will be possible across Wharton and Matagorda Counties.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through7 pm Next Tuesday:

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are indicating an area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the tropical Atlantic over the few days. If a low does develop, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system this weekend into early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5-7 days.

Bob

The first week of August saw the return of triple digit temperatures to much of the region as the summer heat dome reappeared, bringing with it some of the hottest temperatures so far this summer. Some people refer this current stretch of hot weather as the “dog days of summer”. Whatever you call it, the very hot temperatures unfortunately won’t be going away anytime soon as the heat dome continues to dominate the weather pattern.

Despite the heat dome hanging tough, some slight changes in the weather will be possible across the region Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon as a very weak cold front sags to the south out of North Texas. This front, combined with an area of moisture spreading in from the northeast, will cause a slight chance for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon through Friday evening. The probability for rain at any given location will be 20 percent. Should thunderstorms develop, the main weather threat will be the possibility for strong downburst winds, with gusts to around 50 mph. Some of the storms may also produce a few pockets of moderate to heavy rain. For locations that do happen to see rain, totals are predicted to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. The chance for rain is forecast to diminish shortly after sunset.

Aside from this slight chance for rain, Friday’s weather is looking to be mostly sunny and hot, with high temperatures around 98-101 degrees.

Little change in pattern is forecast for Saturday as the cold front stalls along a line roughly stretching from San Angelo, to Austin, to Houston. There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. And once again, strong downburst winds, with gusts to around 50 mph with be possible from some of the thunderstorms. Rain amounts, if any, should total around a quarter inch, or less. High temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees. The chance for rain will diminish Saturday evening as temperatures cool.

It’ll be back to sunny, very hot, and dry weather Sunday as the weak cold front dissipates and the heat dome grows a bit stronger. In fact, computer forecast solutions call for the heat dome to remain over the south central U.S. all of next week and next weekend. With the heat dome firmly in place, sunny and dry weather looks to continue all of next week. Along with the sunshine, dangerous heat will also persist, with more triple digit temperatures.

• Sunday through Friday, daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 98-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.

Factoring in the relative humidity, daily peak heat index readings are predicted to be in the range of 105 and 110 degrees. These readings will likely reach or exceed the criteria for heat advisories.

Looking out into next weekend and the week of August 19^th, the computer forecast solution show few changes in the current hot and dry pattern as the heat dome continues across the area. No significant rain is forecast and high temperatures look to stay close to 100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea which had been was forecast to spread into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend dissipated a couple of days ago and no further development is expected.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central tropical Atlantic, well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This activity is associated with a strong tropical wave. According to the Hurricane Center, any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. However, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Most of the ensemble forecast solutions call for the system to bend to the north early next week, keeping the system  away from the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is way too early to have strong confidence in this prediction.

Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet.

The Perseid Meteor Shower will Peak this Weekend

One of the best meteor showers of the year, the Perseid meteor shower, should reach its peak during the overnight hours of late Sunday night into early Monday morning (Aug. 11-12). So the mornings of August 11 and 12 are probably your best bet to see the show. August 13 might be good as well, but be aware that the Perseids tend to fall off rapidly after their peak. This year, there will be almost no moon, making the late-night sky nice and dark for shooting star spectators and counters. Some Perseids do appear during the evening, but the shower is always better from about midnight until the dawn’s early light.

The shower rises to a peak gradually, then falls off rapidly. And Perseid meteors tend to strengthen in number as late night deepens into the wee hours before dawn. The shower is often best just before dawn.

During those after-midnight hours the shower’s radiant point (the point from which it appears to originate), located between the Perseus constellation and the ‘W’ of Cassiopeia, will be getting progressively higher in the northeast — so meteors should flash across all parts of the sky at a rate of about one every minute or two (as seen by a single observer).

Have a great weekend and stay cool!

Bob