Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Unfortunately, there will be little to no change in the dry and very hot weather pattern this week. A broad, stagnant ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, is forecast to remain over Texas and the south-central U.S. throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. The heat dome will act to keep rain away from our area while at the same time keep the temperature very hot.

For most areas, it’s been a month since there has been a significant rain and the ground has essentially dried out. The dry ground in combination with sinking air from the heat dome will combine to produce a persistent pattern of very hot temperatures across the area. For most locations, high temperatures this week are predicted to be about 2-3 degrees hotter than they were last week.

Daily high temperatures Monday through Sunday are forecast to be:

• Near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country
• Near 100-103 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas region
• Near 98-100 degrees across the middle Texas coast

The outlook for next week calls for few changes from the current hot and dry pattern. The center of the intense heat dome is forecast to meander over the area between the Four Corners, the Texas Panhandle, and Far West Texas. The center of the heat dome will be close enough to our area to keep conditions rain-free and temperatures very hot. In fact, high temperatures next week are expected to be very similar to what is forecast for this week.

Looking out a little further into the first week of September, forecasts call for more hot and generally dry weather as the heat dome remains over our area. The heat dome looks to be a little weaker at that time and this could allow for a few spotty showers to make their way north from the coast. High temperatures are predicated to trend about 2-3 degrees lower. Overall, no significant change.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf. National Hurricane Center forecasters were tracking a couple of strong tropical waves late last week, but both fell apart and diminished over the weekend. There are currently no tropical waves showing any promise for development in the near-term.

Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Rainfall Deficit Across the Region

It’s been a month since we’ve seen a widespread, significant rain across the region. Some locations have seen almost no rain over this period. Rainfall analysis for the past 30 days shows a deficit of 2 to 3 inches for most areas east of Interstate 35, and 1-3 inches for the Hill Country. No appreciable rain is forecast through the end of August.

Rainfall Departure from Normal Past 30 Days:

Data courtesy NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center

Have a great week and stay cool!

Bob

Very few changes in the weather can be expected over the next week as our region remains locked in a persistent hot and dry weather pattern. A strong ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere is forecast to remain over Texas and the south-central U.S. through the period, keeping the atmosphere stable and very hot. Long-range forecast solutions indicate this pattern will likely continue through the end of the month, with no appreciable change in the daily high temperatures.

Friday will offer up a low chance for a few spotty rain showers for areas along and east of Interstate 35 as an area of enhanced tropical moisture spreads inland along the middle and upper Texas. This moisture will be running into a large area of sinking air and much of it will diminish. However, conditions may allow for a few spotty rain showers to develop all the way inland to the I-35 corridor. The probability for rain across this area will be less than 20 percent. For areas that happen to see rain, totals should average less than a quarter inch. Otherwise, Friday’s weather is forecast to be sunny and continued hot. High temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the middle 90s across the coastal region.

Friday’s analysis showed the center of the heat dome located over the eastern Gulf. The center is forecast shift northwest late Friday into Saturday, arriving over North Texas and southern Oklahoma Sunday into next week. For the second half of next week, the heat dome center is forecast to set up across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.  With the center moving close to Central Texas next week, the temperature is forecast to remain quite hot with more persistent triple digit temperatures.

• Daily high temperatures Saturday through next Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country, near 99-103 degrees across Austin and Central Texas, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains

Forecasts for the week of August 24^th unfortunately call for little change as our region looks to remain under the influence of the heat dome. Daily high temperatures are predicated to remain near 98-101 degrees. No rain is forecast.

Do not underestimate the effects of heat stress when working or spending time outdoors for extended periods. Make sure to keep protecting yourself, your loved ones, and pets safe from the heat. Reduce or change the time spent outdoors to cooler times of day, increase the time and access to air-conditioned spaces, and always check the car seats before departing your vehicle.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea. From the western coast of Africa to the central tropical Atlantic, satellite images show a wave train of tropical waves. However, the environment across this region doesn’t appear supportive of tropical development. There is too much stable/sinking air across the Eastern Atlantic, and considerable wind shear across the central and western Atlantic. National Hurricane Center forecasters are currently monitoring two tropical waves, but neither one appears to pose a threat to the Gulf region.

The first wave was located over the central tropical Atlantic, about 350 miles east of the Windward Islands. It is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles Friday night and Saturday. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Across the eastern tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave was located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and was producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. However, the system could encounter strong upper-level winds next week, decreasing its chances for development. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Watches and Warnings Issued for the Hawaiian Islands Due to Tropical Storm Lala

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and

Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Oahu

* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

As of 1 pm CDT Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 150.3 West. Lala was located about 580 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii and moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. This general motion is expected to continue, taking the core of Lala near the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday and then south of the smaller islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a hurricane when it approaches the Big Island Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center.

NOAA/Colorado State University/CIRA 08/14/2026 2:10 pm CDT

August El Niño Update

On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly update on ENSO. In the update, CPC forecasters indicated El Nino continues to strengthen as more warm water is flowing east from the western Pacific.  Sea surface temperature anomalies now exceed more than 2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed). There is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.

Stay tuned for additional updates.

Have a great weekend and stay cool!

Bob

No significant change in the weather is expected this week or this weekend as a persistent heat dome remains over the region.

Monday afternoon and evening will see some active weather across the coastal plains region and the southern counties of Central Texas as an enhanced area of tropical moisture associated with a weak tropical wave spreads inland from the Gulf.

NOAA/Colorado State University/CIRA 08/10/2026 1:20 pm CDT

The tropical wave brought numerous showers and thunderstorms to the middle and upper Texas coast Monday morning into Monday afternoon. As of 2 pm, LCRA’s Hydromet showed spotty totals of 0.5 to 1 inch falling across parts of Matagorda and Wharton Counties. However, a gauge located in northwestern Brazoria County had recorded nearly 2 inches of rain. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the coastal plains region, extending inland to Fayette, Gonzales, Austin, and Washington Counties through Monday evening. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.

Further inland, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along and just east of the Interstate 35 corridor late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Spotty totals to around a half inch will be possible. Little to no rain is forecast across the Hill Country.

All the rain and thunderstorm activity is forecast to diminish around sunset as temperatures begin to lower. The weak tropical wave is forecast to fall apart overnight.

• Monday’s high temperatures will include the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with upper 80s across the coastal plains

A sunny, hot, and rain-free weather pattern is forecast Tuesday through the upcoming weekend as the center of the heat dome relocates from the Four Corners region to the northern Gulf. This change of location is expected to have little to no impact on our region’s weather.

Do note: Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up to be the hottest days of the week as some dry and hot air in the middle atmosphere gets pulled into Texas out of Mexico. High temperatures both days are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country, near 100-102 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas area, and into the mid and upper 90s across the coastal region.

• Late week and through the weekend, high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, in the upper 90s to 100 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

The outlook for next week calls for few changes as the heat dome continues to cover Texas and the south-central U.S. No rain is expected, with little change in the daily high temperatures.

One growing concern across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions will be the potential for new fire starts from mid-week onward, owing to a decrease in afternoon relative humidity levels and an uptick in gusty winds. These increased fire weather parameters are mapping on a region with fuels that are steadily curing due to the protracted absence of widespread rainfall. Elevated fire concerns are likely to be a growing problem through the remainder of the month and on into September, given the likelihood of continued rainfall deficits and very hot temperatures.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Conditions across the tropical Atlantic began to wake up over the past couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three different areas of possible tropical development. None of these pose a threat to the Gulf region at this time.

• Across the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic, NHC forecasters are monitoring an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. As this low moves slowly westward over the next couple of days, a tropical wave emerging off the coast of west Africa is expected to interact with the system. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by mid-week, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone development over the next seven days is forecast to be near 60 percent.
• Across the central Tropical Atlantic, NHC forecasters are tracking an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through mid-week while the system moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development later this week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. Tropical cyclone development over the next seven days is forecast to only be near 10 percent.
• Across the western subtropical Atlantic, forecasters are following a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda that is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system will be possible during the next couple of days as the system moves quickly eastward, well to the north of Bermuda, across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters late this week, ending its chances of formation after Wednesday. Tropical cyclone development over the next seven days is forecast to only be near 10 percent.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

Perseid Meteor Shower this Week

A reminder…One of the best meteor showers of the entire year, the Perseids, will be at peak this Wednesday and Thursday morning. The best time to watch the Perseid meteor shower will be from midnight through dawn on August 12th and 13th. The sky will be moon-free on both nights. And since the Perseids are often bright, you might see between 50 and 100 meteors per hour! Remember, even one bright meteor can make your night!

The August Perseid meteor shower is rich and steady, from early August through the peak. The meteors are colorful and many of them are bright. And they frequently leave persistent trains. All of these factors make the Perseid shower perhaps the most beloved meteor shower for the Northern Hemisphere.

Have a great week!

Bob

Our region remains in the grips of a very persistent hot and dry weather pattern thanks to the presence of a broad ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, covering the southwestern and south-central U.S. Friday’s weather maps showed the center of the heat dome located just west of the Four Corners. Sinking air underneath the heat dome is keep the weather dry and quite hot across all of Texas.

With the strongest part of the heat dome currently located over the Desert Southwest, conditions have recently become a little more favorable for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze front in the afternoon and early evening. A low probability for spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the coastal plains extending inland to near Interstate 35 Friday afternoon through Monday afternoon. The probability for rain will only be near 20-30 percent, and most areas will likely see little to no rain. Totals, if any, should average less than a quarter inch. Locations along and to the west of Interstate 35 will likely stay dry through early next week.

Little change in the temperature is forecast through the weekend.

• Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country, the upper 90s to 101 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

Next week, the Desert Southwest heat dome is forecast to weaken significantly. At the same time, though, a new heat dome is forecast to develop across the southeastern U.S. and the western Gulf. This heat dome will quickly cover most of Texas and produce more sunny, dry, and very hot weather. With the heat dome setting up closer to our area, the possibility for sea breeze showers is forecast to diminish beginning Tuesday.

• High temperatures next week are forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and near 100-102 degrees across Central Texas

Longer-range forecasts looking out into the week of August 17^th call for few changes. The center of the heat dome is predicted to set up over Texas, causing continued hot and dry weather.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected through early next week.

It’s interesting to note some of the global dynamical models are suggesting the possibility of a tropical system developing across the far eastern Atlantic sometime next week. However, some of the newer AI models are less confident on anything developing. Environmental conditions across the tropical Atlantic remain generally unfavorable for tropical development at this time. Stay tuned for further updates.

NOAA/Colorado State University 08/07/26 12:00 pm CDT

Perseid Meteor Shower Next Week

Mark your calendar for the mornings of August 12^th and 13^th. One of the best meteor showers of the entire year, the Perseids, will be at peak. The best time to watch the Perseid meteor shower will be midnight through dawn on August 12 and 13. The sky will be moon-free. And since the Perseids are often bright, you might see between 50 and 100 meteors per hour. Remember, even one bright meteor can make your night!

The August Perseid meteor shower is rich and steady, from early August through the peak. The meteors are colorful and many of them are bright. And they frequently leave persistent trains. All of these factors make the Perseid shower perhaps the most beloved meteor shower for the Northern Hemisphere.

Have a great weekend! Remember to stay cool and hydrated!

Bob

Our weather this week will be feeling very much like what is typical for early August. Monday’s weather maps showed a broad heat dome covering the south central and southwestern U.S., with an unusually strong tough of low pressure stretching from eastern Canada to the eastern Gulf coast. It was this trough that helped to drive a rare summer cold front south across the area on Saturday. While the trough didn’t bring any cooler air, it did bring with it some noticeably drier air. The drier air allowed temperatures Monday morning to fall into the low and mid-60s across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. One LCRA gauge located northwest of Junction even recorded a low temperature of 59 degrees!

Sunny, hot, and increasingly humid weather is on tap for this week as our region remains under the influence of the broad heat dome. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to hold near the Four Corners region through late week and the upcoming weekend. This more westward position of the heat dome center should help to keep the hottest temperatures over the Desert Southwest, and not across Texas. Nevertheless, it is still going to be a very hot week, and the normal heat safety protocols will need to be followed.

• High temperatures Monday through Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and near 98 to 100 degrees across Central Texas

Higher humidity levels are expected beginning Monday night, continuing through late week as southerly breezes bring a return of moisture from the Gulf. Peak heat index values this week are forecast to be just slightly higher than the actual air temperature.

A dry weather pattern is forecast throughout the week due to the presence of the heat dome. However, a few spotty rain showers do look possible for the coastal region and areas northwest to just east of Interstate 35 Thursday through Sunday as the sea breeze front become active.  The sea breeze front is forecast to push inland from the coast and may help to spark a few widely scattered rain showers. Rain amounts, if any, should total well under a quarter inch.

Looking ahead to next week, very few changes in the weather are forecast. Early next week, the center of the heat dome is predicted to diminish over the Four Corners region, with a new heat dome center to take shape over the central and western Gulf.  No significant change in the hot and dry pattern can be expected across our region. Expect daily high temperatures to remain near 98-100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and atmospheric conditions look to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development for at least the next seven days.

Have a great week!

Bob

It’s been a hot week across Texas, with the temperature climbing close to or reaching 100 degrees each day. Unfortunately, no significant change in the temperature is be expected over the next couple of weeks as our region will remain under the influence of a stagnant summertime heat dome.

Friday’s weather is offering few changes in the hot and dry pattern. High temperature are forecast to be in the upper 90s at most locations. A few spots along the Interstate 35 corridor, including Austin, could reach 100 degrees. Expect a southerly breeze at 5-10 mph.

Saturday looks to see a few changes in the weather as the center of the heat dome briefly shifts from eastern New Mexico to western Arizona. This will allow a trough of low pressure to dive south the Plains and enable a weak cold front to sink south into Texas. The front is forecast to spread south, reaching the Interstate 20 corridor across North Texas Saturday morning, The front is predicted to move across the Hill Country late Saturday morning into the first half of Saturday afternoon then push south through Central Texas late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The cold front is expected to stall somewhere close to Interstate 10 late Saturday evening.

An area of elevated moisture accompanying the cold front may help to cause the development of a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along and just behind the cold front. The probability for rain across the Hill Country will be near 20 percent, while across Central Texas and the coastal regions, the chance for rain will be near 30 percent. Rain totals, if any, are forecast to average less than a quarter inch. The chance for rain will diminish behind the front as drier and more stable air flows into the area.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Sunday:

Despite the approaching cold front, Saturday’s weather is expected to remain mostly sunny and hot with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s.

Sunday is shaping up to be sunny and continued hot. However, drier air behind the cold front is expected to make for noticeably less humid conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. High temperatures will include the mid-90s across the northern Hill Country, and upper 90s at most other locations.

Monday will see more sunny and hot weather along with increasing relative humidity levels as Saturday’s cold front lifts back to the north. Next week, the center of heat dome is forecast to spread back to the southern Rockies and southern Plains. For our region, this means continued sunny, hot, and dry.. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be near 98-100 degrees.

Looking out further to the week of August 10^th, few changes are expected as the center of the heat dome remains parked across the southern Plains. Daily high temperatures look to stay around 98-100 degrees. No rain in on the horizon.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. Atmospheric conditions look unfavorable for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

I hope everyone has a good weekend. Continue to practice heat safety and be sure to stay cool and hydrated!

Bob

The dog days of summer have arrived across Texas. We’re looking at a stretch of hot, humid, rain-free weather this week and next. Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere, or heat dome, covering the western and central U.S., with the dome centered over northeastern New Mexico. Sinking air under the heat dome is causing a very stable atmosphere along with a sunny sky and very hot temperatures.

Forecasts call for the heat dome to remain essentially stationary through Friday, so little change in the weather is expected this week.

The biggest weather news this week will be the heat:

• Daily high temperatures through Friday are forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 90s across the coastal plains, and near 98 to 102 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas area
• Peak heat index readings Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be near 106 to 108 degrees across Central Texas, and between 105 and 110 degrees across the coastal plains region. The National Weather Service has posted a Heat Advisory for the coastal plains, including Fayette, Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties, through 7 pm Tuesday. This advisory may be extended for additional days this week

Please continue to keep heat safety in mind for any outdoor activities this week. Know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks from the heat. Also, remember to LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, and bear in mind that if the pavement is too hot for your palm, it is too hot for your pet’s paws.

This weekend into early next week, forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to shift west to Arizona and southern Utah. This will allow a trough of low pressure to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, causing a very weak cold front to sink southwest into North and Central Texas Sunday into Monday. The front may be just strong enough to help produce a few widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Sunday into Monday. As of now, only spotty showers are forecast, with very low rain totals.

The outlook for next Tuesday through Friday calls for continued sunny, hot, and dry weather as the center of the heat dome remains near or just west of the Four Corners region . Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally hold in the upper 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Updated Outlook for August

Late last week, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly update for August. For Central Texas, the outlook leans toward above normal temperatures, with no clear trend for precipitation. The forecasters behind the outlook indicated there were mixed signals for precipitation for next month, with some solutions calling for above normal rain, while others called for little rain. The forecasters decided to take a middle of the road stance, showing little trend for above, below, or near normal rainfall.

The July full “Buck” moon will take place Wednesday morning at 9:36 am CDT. Because the full moon occurs during daylight hours across North America, the best time to view the full moon will be during the evenings of July 28 and July 29 as it rises in the southeastern sky after sunset.

Have a good week!

Bob

It’s been a hot week as the summer pattern began to take shape in earnest across the area. In fact, many locations this week recorded their hottest temperatures so far this summer. However, a break in the summer pattern will be developing this weekend and the first half of next week as the heat dome shifts well up to the north, allowing moisture and atmospheric disturbances to spread over the area. Slightly lower temperatures this weekend will include a slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chances for rain are expected to be the highest Monday and Tuesday.

Friday’s analysis showed a weak, non-tropical area of low pressure situated over northern Mexico and Far South Texas. The low is forecast to slowly push to the west through the weekend. A counterclockwise flow around the low is expected to pull an enhanced area of tropical moisture inland Friday afternoon, continuing through the weekend. The enhanced moisture is expected to cause the development of scattered, mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.

• Friday afternoon, the most favorable area for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast to be across the coastal plains, where the probability for rain will be near 40 percent. Further inland and up to the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, there will be a 20-30 percent for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The showers and not expected to make it as far inland as the Hill Country. For areas that happen to see rain, totals should average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.
• For Saturday and Sunday, the best chance for scattered showers will likely remain across the coastal plains region, where the probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent. Daily rain amounts will average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals to near 1 inch. Across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, the chance for rain and isolated storms will be near 20-30 percent. Spotty totals to around a quarter inch are predicted along with some isolated heavier totals.

We should see the temperature trend a little less hot through the weekend due more clouds and increased moisture.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across Central Texas and in the low 90s across the Hill Country and the coastal regions

An unsettled and potentially wet weather pattern appears to be setting up next Monday through Wednesday as the center of the heat dome pulls north to the Dakotas, allowing a trough of low pressure to spread into Texas from the Mississippi Valley. A very moist atmosphere and increasing instability is expected to cause a widespread coverage of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the region Monday and Tuesday, with a somewhat lower chance for rain and storms on Wednesday.  The probability for rain across the region Monday and Tuesday will be near 60-70 percent, decreasing to 30 on Wednesday and just 20 percent on Thursday.

Forecasts are showing the potential for the development of moderate and possibly even heavy rain across the region Monday through Tuesday. Totals of 1-3 inches are predicted. However, these generous totals may not quite pan out. The reason for the concern is a dense area of Saharan dust is forecast to arrive onto the Texas coast Monday. Depending on how far inland this plume gets, it could act to suppress the development of showers and storms. As of now, I’m still leaning toward the wetter solution.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Friday, 7/17:

• High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to generally be near 90-92 degrees.

Dry and hot weather will make a quick return late next week as the area of low pressure exits to the west and the center of the heat dome begins to shift south from the Dakotas to the southern Rockies. High temperatures are forecast to return to the mid and upper 90s.

Next weekend, continuing through the week of July 20^th, dry and very hot weather is forecast as our region comes under the influence of a strong heat dome centered over New Mexico. Daily high temperatures are predicted to hold near 98-100 degrees through the period.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for the development of tropical cyclones through the next week.

Colorado State Forecasters Further Reduce the Number of Storms Expected this Year

Phil Klotzbach and his forecast team at Colorado State University further reduced the number of tropical storms and hurricanes predicted for 2026. In an update released Wednesday, the team is now calling for a well below normal season. With a strong potential for a strong El Nino to be in place during the peak of this year’s hurricane season, high levels of wind shear are forecast to be in place which should limit the development of storms. The team is also predicting a well-below normal probability for major hurricanes to make landfall along the continental U.S. coastline.

The CSU team is now calling for 9 named storms (normal is 14), 4 hurricanes (normal is 7), and 2 major hurricanes (normal is 3).

I am going to be taking some time out of the office over the next couple of weeks. My next report will be around July 25^th.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across this Hill Country Monday afternoon into Monday evening. These storms are the result of a leftover boundary from thunderstorms which developed across Oklahoma late Sunday. This boundary spread south into Northwest Texas Sunday and was situated across the Hill Country and West Texas Monday afternoon. The probability for rain across the Hill Country through Monday evening will be near 40 percent. Some of Monday’s storms may produce strong and gusty winds along with pockets of locally heavy rain. Rain amounts are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible. This same boundary may bring a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to part of Central Texas Monday afternoon, but most locations should stay dry.

Towards the coast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through early evening as the sea breeze pushes to the northwest. Spotty totals to around a quarter inch will be possible.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the western half of the Hill Country, in the mid to upper 90s across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains

Tuesday’s weather will include a 20 percent chance for scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country due to some remnant boundaries from Monday’s activity. The rest of the region is predicted to be mostly sunny and hot.

• High temperatures Tuesday will include the mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and in the upper 90s across Central Texas

Wednesday through Friday, expect a pattern of mostly sunny, dry, and hot weather as our region comes under the influence of a subtropical ridge of high pressure, or heat dome. The center of the heat dome is forecast to be well to our west over southern California.

• Daily high temperatures look to continue in the mid and upper 90s

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast across the region this weekend and next Monday as the center of the heat dome becomes established across the central Rockies, allowing an enhanced area of moisture to spread inland from the Gulf. The probability for rain each day will be near 30-40 percent, with daily rain amounts expected to be around a quarter inch. Some isolated heavier totals will be possible.

• High temperatures Saturday through Monday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with lower 90s expected towards the coast

Next Tuesday through Friday, the heat dome is forecast to cover much of the southwestern and south-central U.S., with the center or most intense portion setting up over southern Plains. The heat dome is expected to produce a pattern of sunny, dry, and hot weather across the entire region. Look for high temperatures to be in the upper 90s at most locations. High temperatures look to climb close to 100/101 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning late next week and the following weekend.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf. Atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Another Plume of Saharan Dust is Headed Toward Texas

Satellite images show another plume of Saharan dust across the Caribbean that is forecast to approach South Texas on Wednesday. The plume of dust is expected to push farther inland Thursday and is expected to be the primary driver in elevated fine particulate matter across the state, although lingering smoke associated with the burnings in Canada, Mexico, and southwestern CONUS could also play a role. Breezier winds across the eastern two thirds of the state could increase dispersion in that area. The plume of Saharan dust is forecast to linger into Friday, then slowly exit to the north.

It is interesting to note there are additional plumes of Saharan dust lined up across the tropical Atlantic that are pushing to the west and could move into Texas next week.

Have a good week!

Bob