Highlights
- An arctic cold front will arrive early Saturday, bringing much colder air that will last through the middle of next week. Low temperatures will likely be in the 20s with afternoon highs only in the 30s to low 40s for most areas Sunday and Monday.
- Forecasters continue to monitor the potential for winter weather next Monday and Tuesday. The latest forecast guidance continues show some potential for light wintry precipitation across the area late Monday into Tuesday, but there is still significant uncertainty in how much moisture will return to produce precipitation
- Preparations should be made now for this upcoming extended period of very cold weather
Discussion
An extended period of very cold weather continues to be forecast for Texas this weekend through the middle of next week. The latest temperature forecast hasn’t changed significantly from the past couple of days. The coldest point of this cold period is expected to be Sunday night and Monday night. The arctic air is predicted to begin moving off to the east Wednesday, followed by milder readings Thursday into the following weekend.
The leading edge of the cold air is predicted to reach the Hill Country before sunrise Saturday, with the cold front moving pushing off the coast before noon. No rain is expected along the front. Temperatures are forecast to hold in the 50s Saturday afternoon. A surge of much colder air is then expected to arrive Saturday evening which will cause the temperature to drop significantly Saturday evening and Saturday night. Readings are forecast to fall below freezing at most locations Sunday morning. Additional surges of arctic air are predicted to arrive Sunday through Tuesday, keeping the temperature very chilly!
Breezy to windy conditions are forecast to develop Saturday as the arctic air pushes south. Expect northerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph Saturday night through Monday night.
The combination of the very cold air and the strong and gusty winds is expected to produce unusually cold wind chill, or feel-like temperatures, Saturday night through Tuesday morning. Spots across the Hill Country could see wind chill readings in the low teens while most other areas will see wind chill readings in the mid and upper teens.
Here’s a review of high and low temperatures expected with the upcoming cold spell:
Lows:
- Lows Sunday morning will include the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s across Central Texas, and be near 30-032 degrees across the coastal plain
- Lows Monday morning are forecast to be near 20 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low 20s across Central Texas, and in the mid to upper 20s across the coastal plains
- Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are forecast to be in the low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid-20s across Central Texas and the upper 20s across the coastal area
- Lows Thursday morning will range from the upper 20s across the Hill Country, to the low 30s across Central Texas and the coastal plains
- Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-30s
Highs:
- High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the mid-40s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal area
- High temperatures Wednesday will range from the low 40s west, the upper 40s near the coast
- High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the upper 40s and low 50s
The forecast for wintery precipitation next week remains fairly uncertain. The forecast solutions call for a trough of low pressure to dive southeast across the western U.S. this weekend and move across Texas early Texas next week. The uncertainty for precipitation arises from how much Gulf moisture is pulled into Texas with the trough. There just isn’t a clear consensus. Some of the solutions call for a weak trough that will barely pull any moisture into the state. This solution would result in little to no precipitation across Central and South Texas. Meanwhile, other solutions call for a modest return of moisture across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions late Monday through Tuesday afternoon. If these solutions are correct, the returning moisture will have the potential to cause some light snow showers and freezing rain.
I am leaning toward the solutions that produces at least some wintery precipitation across the area Monday evening through late Tuesday afternoon. For the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, this means a 30-40 percent chance for freezing rain and snow showers Monday night, followed by a 30-40 percent chance for mainly snow showers Tuesday. Areas south of Interstate 10 will see a 50 percent chance for freezing rain and some snow showers Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
Slightly higher accumulations will be possible here due to a greater amount of atmospheric moisture.
Due to limited moisture returning off the Gulf, general precipitation amounts, if any, should be low.
Again, there is much uncertainty in the forecast for wintery precipitation. The forecast should improve over the next couple of days when we move into the window of the high-resolution forecast models.
Sunny weather looks to return Wednesday, followed by a cloudy sky with a chance for rain Thursday and Friday.
Bob
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