We’re wrapping up quite a week of incredible heat! Daily high temperatures all week have been at or above 105 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the low 100s across the coastal plains. The average temperature for the first 10 days of August is running a very close second to the first 10 days of August 2011. This speaks volumes on how unbearably hot it has been lately. In addition, the strength of the heat dome this month has precluded the development of any stray rain showers—even near the coast.
Unfortunately, the current pattern of extreme heat and no rain isn’t showing any signs of breaking down anytime soon. Forecasts call for the powerful heat dome to remain over Texas through the weekend and all of next week. The center of the heat dome is predicted to shift from Central Texas to the Four Corners region late next week, but this is expected to have only minor impacts on the temperature.
- Daily high temperatures Friday through next Thursday are forecast to continue between 104 and 107 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 99 and 102 degrees across the coastal plains.
Forecasters will be monitoring a weak cold front that is forecast to slide south of the Red River late Monday. The front is predicted to stall across North Texas, somewhere near or just south of Interstate 20 Monday night into Tuesday. The front is expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures to North Texas, but it will likely remain too far north to have any impact on Central or South Texas. Unfortunately, our heatwave looks to continue without missing a beat next week.
A few widely scattered rain showers may develop across the coastal plains region next week as the center of ridge pulls to the northwest. However, any rain that does happen to develop will be very spotty in nature.
Late next week into next weekend, forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to shift northeast to the southern Plains states. This should result in about a 2 degree drop in our high temperatures beginning late next week.
- High temperatures next Friday and next weekend are forecast to be between 102 and 105 degrees across Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 98 and 101 degrees across the coastal plains.
Looking out into the week of August 21st, the forecast solutions still don’t show any significant change in the weather pattern across our region as the heat dome remains parked across Texas. However, the center of the heat dome is forecast to be over the southern Plains state or the Four Corners region, and not over Central Texas. This should result in slightly lower high temperatures. In addition, we may also see the development of more sea breeze showers spreading inland from the coast.
- High temperatures the week of August 21s are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and near 98-100 degrees across the coastal plains.
No significant break in the hot and dry pattern is seen over the next 2-3 week period.
Fire Weather Concerns Will Continue through the Weekend and Next Week
The combination of very low relative humidity levels, dry to extremely dry fuels, and breezy south winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph will lead to critical or very critical fire weather conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions today, this weekend and through most of next week.
The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for most of the Hill Country and Central Texas through 11 pm Friday evening, and again for Saturday from noon until 11 pm.
Weather conditions will remain conducive to the rapid spread of fires! Please use extreme caution with any outdoor activities with flames or that could cause a spark and inadvertently start a wildfire! We have seen an increase in fires that are difficult to control this past week.
Tropical Weather Update
Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.
Have a great weekend!
Bob
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