Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Weather Outlook for this Week

Very little change in the sunny and hot weather pattern can be expected through Friday. The heat dome will continue to be the biggest influence on region’s weather, despite it’s center shifting away from Texas mid and late week. The sea breeze may generate a few spotty, brief showers across the coastal plains this week, but no significant rain is forecast. Triple-digit high temperatures are forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through Friday. Elevated relative humidity levels look to continue throughout the week, allowing peak heat index values to climb to 107 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and to between 105 and 110 degrees across the coastal plains.

• High temperatures Monday through Friday are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and 95-98 degrees across the coastal region

Beginning this weekend, the heat dome is predicted to shift to the West Coast while a broad trough of low pressure develops across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The trough will help push a weak cold front south into Texas late Friday into Saturday. Forecasts call for the cold front to stall somewhere across West and North Texas late Friday into Saturday, and will provide the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the chance for rain doesn’t look like it will extend into Central Texas, or locations further south. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Rain amounts should average around a quarter inch or less. Elsewhere, no rain is predicted.

With the center of the heat dome out west this weekend and for much of next week, high temperatures are predicted to lower a couple of degrees. Highs across the Hill Country and Central Texas are forecast to generally be in the upper 90s. Coastal areas should see highs in the low and mid-90s. There are some indications much of the region could see a chance for rain develop the second half of next week when another cold front sags south into the region.

Longer-range forecasts call for the heat dome to shift east to the central and southern Rockies beginning late next week, meaning local temperatures should trend hotter once again.

Tropics Update

Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris Sunday evening. The tropical storm moved inland over eastern Mexico, just south of Tuxpan, Monday morning. Clouds and heavy rain associated with Chris are currently spreading east across the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico and are forecast to stay well to the south of Texas over the next couple of days.

Hurricane Beryl

Satellite and radar data suggest Beryl completed an eyewall replacement cycle earlier this morning. Radar images from Barbados now show a solid ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened further.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/01/24 2:10 pm CDT

As of 1 pm CDT, the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located about 65 miles northwest of Grenada. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph, with higher gusts. Beryl is a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Beryl remains an impressive hurricane for this part of the Atlantic basin for this time of year.

Beryl continues to move to the west-northwest at around 20 mph. A slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24-36 hours as the hurricane remains on the south side of strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. The center of Beryl will move away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and pass quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Wednesday.

The latest guidance and ensembles have shown a fairly significant adjustment of the track forecast to the left,( or south) as the hurricane approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late this week as a result of stronger mid level ridging over the southern US and Gulf of Mexico and the potential for Beryl to weaken as it moves toward the western Caribbean Sea. An increase in westerly shear is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week.

There remains a great amount of uncertainty on the ultimate track of Beryl once it crosses the Yucatan as several factors remain in play. The intensity and location of where Beryl enters the southern Gulf, the intensity of the high pressure ridge over the southern US, and the position and intensity of a trough over the central and northern plains. The majority of the forecast model solutions continue to show a path into northern Mexico, although a turn a little further to the north cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned for further updates over the next few days.

Disturbed Weather in the Central Tropical Atlantic

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next two days, and a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Bob

The summer doldrums have arrived. We’ve reached the point of summer where there will be little day to day change in the weather. The heat is on and long-range forecast solutions are showing no real break from the very hot temperatures through at least the first couple of weeks of July. Meanwhile, the tropics have become active, with three areas of disturbed weather posing a threat for tropical development.

Friday’s analysis showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere, or heat dome, stretching from northwestern Mexico to the mid-Atlantic states. Forecasts call for the heat dome to remain across Texas this weekend and all of next week, causing continued dry and very hot weather across Central and South Texas. The center, or most intense part of the heat dome, is forecast to be over the southern Plains this weekend, then slowly shift east to the southeastern U.S. for the middle and latter parts of next week. Even with the center of the heat dome shifting more to the east, little change in the temperature is predicted locally over the next few days.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be near 98-101 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 90s across the coastal plains.

Relative humidity levels are forecast to remain elevated this weekend and next week. The combination of the very hot temperatures and fairly high relative humidity levels is expected to produce peak heat index readings between 105 and 110 degrees for areas along and east of Interstate 35 today through late next week.

The National Weather Service has posted a Heat Advisory for the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor and areas southeast  to the coast through 7 pm Friday. Additional heat Advisories will likely be issued for this same general area over the next few days. Under a heat advisory, officials urge everyone to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room as much as possible, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

While no rain is forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through late next week, a few isolated, spotty rain showers will be possible for areas located to the south of Interstate 10 as the sea breeze front pushes north from the coast. Isolated totals to near a quarter inch will be possible from the spotty rain over the next few days.

Expect a southerly breeze with speeds of 10-15 mph Friday afternoon and Saturday. Wind speeds are forecast to decrease to 5-10 mph Sunday and early next week.

Looking out a little further, little change in the weather is predicted for the week of July 8th. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to return west to southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, causing continued very hot and dry weather across our region. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be close to 100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring three areas of disturbed weather that have potential for tropical development over the next few days.

• In the western Caribbean Sea, forecasters are monitoring a broad area of low pressure that is associated with a strong tropical wave. This system continues to produce widespread clouds along with showers thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected today while it moves west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, at which point, some development will be possible. NHC forecasters are giving this feature a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the seven days. The large heat dome located over the southern U.S. is forecast to keep this system on a path that will take it well to the south of Texas.
• In the central tropical Atlantic, a low pressure system is located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms with the system are increasing in organization and the system overall is gradually becoming better defined. According to the Hurricane Center, if these trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form sometime Friday evening. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 100 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of days.

Friday’s various computer forecast solutions show good agreement on a path to the northwest over the next 4 days, with some spread in the solutions developing around day 5.

• Out across the eastern tropical Atlantic, a fairly strong tropical wave is centered several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is producing a fairly large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  NHC forecasters indicate some slow development of this system will be possible next week as the system moves to the west across the central and western tropical Atlantic. As of now, NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

I hope everyone has a good weekend and stays cool. If you’re planning to take part in outdoor activities, remember to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Also, for pets…if the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for their paws!

Bob

The summer doldrums have begun to settle in. Any remaining hints of our spring weather pattern are unfortunately now gone. Monday’s weather maps showed a broad subtropical ridge, or heat dome, covering the entire southwestern and south central U.S. The heat dome was centered across West Texas. Fortunately, the heat dome so far is not quite as strong as the heat dome we saw last summer.

Forecasts call for the heat dome to remain over our area throughout the week and the upcoming weekend. The center is predicted to be over New Mexico Wednesday through Friday. Sinking air underneath  the feature is expected to cause a pattern of sunny, dry, and hot weather at most locations.

One exception to the dry forecast will be across the middle Texas coast this afternoon through mid-week as an area of tropical moisture causes the Sea Breeze to develop and push inland. The Sea Breeze will bring a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms each day to areas along and south of Interstate 10. The probability for rain at any given location will only be 20 percent. Spotty totals to around a quarter inch will be possible.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday through Sunday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

Peak heat index readings are forecast to be near 105-108 degrees Monday through Wednesday, and between 105 and 110 degrees Thursday through Sunday.

Expect a light southerly breeze at 5-10 mph throughout the week.

Looking out into next week, the forecast solutions are calling for little change in the weather pattern for our region. The center of the heat dome is forecast to shift from the Desert Southwest to the southeastern US early in the week and remain there through late week. While this isn’t expected to bring any significant change to our weather, it should keep high temperatures similar to this week’s levels—mainly in the upper 90s. No widespread triple digit temperatures are predicted at this time. The chance for any rain will be low. However, spotty coastal showers do look to continue.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic. The tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that showed some promise of development late last week never quite came together.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a westward-moving tropical wave located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This system is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development once the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week.

NHC is currently giving this system a low chance, a 20 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

Latest Sunsets of the Year

Although the summer solstice occurred last Thursday, the latest sunsets of the year will be occurring this week. For the Austin area, the latest sunset will occur on June 29th and 30th.

The latest sunsets come after the summer solstice because the day is more than 24 hours long at this time of the year. For several weeks around the June solstice, the day (as measured by successive returns of the midday sun) is nearly 1/4 minute longer than 24 hours. Hence, the midday sun (solar noon) comes later by the clock in late June than it does on the June solstice. Therefore, the sunrise and sunset times also come later by the clock.

(Courtesy earthsky.org)

Have a good week and stay cool!

Bob

For the past couple of days, the clouds and rain associated with tropical storm Alberto created a nice break in the summer pattern across Central and South Texas. Unfortunately, this break is about to come to an end. As of Friday morning, the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto continued to push west across central Mexico. Well to the north and east of the remnant circulation center, deep tropical moisture and scattered clouds continue to spread inland across Central and South Texas. As temperatures warm Friday afternoon, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop. The most favorable area for showers is expected to  be over the area generally located to the south of Interstate 10. Here, the chance for rain for rain will be around 40 percent. Totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inch will be possible. Across Central Texas and the southern half of the Hill Country, the chance for scattered rains will be around 20 percent, with totals averaging less than a quarter inch. The shower activity is forecast to diminish Friday evening with the loss of heating. Friday’s high temperature is predicted to be in the low 90s.

After spending the past few days over the northeastern U.S., the subtropical ridge, or heat dome, is forecast to shift back southwest, spreading over the southern Plains states this weekend, reaching Mexico and the Desert Southwest early next week. The heat dome is predicted to remain over this same general area through late next week. Stable, sinking air along the periphery of the heat dome looks to spread across Texas this weekend causing the chance for rain to diminish and temperatures to warm.  Tropical moisture associated with the next Gulf tropical disturbance (see tropical section below) could bring a few scattered rain showers to the coastal plains region Sunday and Monday, but the rest of the region should stay rain-free.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s Saturday
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-90s

A sunny, hot and humid weather pattern is predicted for next week as the center of the heat dome settles in just west of our region.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are predicted to generally be in the upper 90s, with middle 90s towards the coast

Although the weather looks to stay dry, a steady influx of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico will maintain rather high relative humidity levels throughout the week. This will lead to peak heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees for much of the area throughout the week and into next weekend.

Looking out further into next weekend and the week of July 1st, the forecast solutions call for little change in the weather pattern. Sunny and hot weather looks to continue, with daily high temperatures around 98/99 degrees. We will be moving shortly into what is typically the driest month of summer.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters forecast a broad area of low pressure to develop over the Bay of Campeche Friday evening. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. A tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Clouds and moisture associated with this disturbance are forecast to spread into Mexico and Seep South Texas. The heat dome spread across Texas this weekend is predicted to keep most of the clouds and rain to the south of our area.

Full Strawberry Moon

June’s full moon will occur Friday evening at 8:08 pm CDT. Don’t miss it, it will be quite big and bright!

The strawberry’s moon’s name can be traced back to some Native Americans who used to call it by that name. It’s still common across North America today. Many species of berries ripen in early summer, including some strawberries.

Bob

As of early Tuesday afternoon, Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, about 405 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. While the disturbance’s overall envelope has become slightly better defined, there’s still no evidence that a well-defined center of circulation has developed. The system’s broad nature will likely continue to inhibit significant strengthening despite otherwise conducive environmental conditions. The global forecast model fields suggest the circulation will tighten up and develop a well-defined center on Wednesday while the system approaches the northeastern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are currently near 40 mph, with some higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours. The disturbance is forecast to move inland over Mexico on Wednesday, having no direct impact on Central Texas weather.

Meanwhile, a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico is causing the development of scattered light rain this afternoon from the middle Texas coast into Central Texas. The showers should continue into Tuesday evening. Today’s analysis shows a large area of deep tropical moisture lurking just offshore over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This slug of moisture is forecast to spread inland along the middle Texas coast after midnight Tuesday night, and continue spreading west into parts of Central and South Texas and parts of the Hill Country Wednesday into Thursday. The tropical moisture is forecast to spread west into Rio Grande Plains and Mexico late Thursday into Friday.

Tuesday’s forecast data indicates the bulk of the deep tropical moisture will most likely stay to the south of Interstate 10 Wednesday into Thursday due a stronger ridge of high pressure located across the southern U.S. As a result, lower amounts of tropical moisture and rainfall are now predicted across Central Texas and the Hill Country, compared to Monday’s prediction.

High resolution forecasts call for a large area of moderate to heavy rain to spread inland along the middle Texas coast around midnight Tuesday. Periods of locally heavy rain will be possible here Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The area of rain is forecast to spread into the southern counties of Central Texas around daybreak Wednesday, reaching the Interstate 35 corridor around midday, and the Hill Country region Wednesday afternoon. As pointed out above, the heaviest rains are expected to occur near and south of Interstate 10. Widespread moderate rain is forecast to occur across Central Texas and the Hill Country Wednesday into Wednesday night. The large area of moderate to heavy rain is forecast to shift west into Edwards Plateau region late Wednesday night. Note some periods of locally heavy rain will also be possible across Central Texas and the Hill Country.  In addition, wind gusts to 30 mph can be expected with some of the passing showers.

The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the middle Texas coast through late Wednesday night. A Flood Watch has also been posted for the southern counties of Central Texas through Thursday afternoon.

The National Weather Service’s Tuesday afternoon rainfall forecast through Thursday now calls for general totals of 3 to 6 inches across the middle Texas coast. Across Central Texas totals are forecast to range from 1-2 inches around Austin, to near 3 inches around La Grange. Across the Hill Country, totals are forecast to range from a half inch near Brownwood, to around 3 inches in Kerrville.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Friday:

There will be a 50-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region Thursday, followed by a 40-50 percent chance for more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A slight chance for rain showers will continue through the weekend.

Looking out longer term, the National Hurricane Center is indicating another broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward. It’s too early to get a handle on whether this potential system might bring another round of rain to our area, or not.

Bob

From the National Hurricane Center’s Monday midday update:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure has now developed over the Bay of Campeche. Winds of 35-40 mph are occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  The system overall is still somewhat ragged and doesn’t yet meet the criteria to be termed a tropical cyclone. However, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves slowly west-north-westward toward the western Gulf coast/Mexican coastline. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is  currently en route to investigate this developing system.

Colorado State University/NOAA/RAMMB 06/17/24 2:50 pm CDT

Regardless of whether this system develops into a tropical depression or not, the circulation around the area of low pressure is expected to pull a large area of deep, tropical moisture inland to South, Central Texas, and the Hill Country beginning Tuesday, continuing through late Thursday. As moisture levels increase, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity. Forecasts are calling for significant totals of rain to fall over the area from the middle Texas coast and inland into the Hill Country.

For Monday afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the coastal plains region as the leading edge of the tropical moisture begins to spread inland. The chance for rain will be near 70 percent. Rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast. Across Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Most of the rain and thunderstorm activity is predicted to diminish Monday night.

For Tuesday through Tuesday evening, increasing tropical moisture is expected to cause the development of periods of moderate to heavy rain across the middle Texas coast, extending inland to the southern counties of Central Texas. The probability for rain will be near 70-80 percent Across Central Texas and the Hill Country, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage across the region in the afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 30 percent.

Wednesday through Thursday, periods of moderate to occasionally rain are forecast across the entire region as the plume of tropical moisture spreads inland from the coast. The probability for rain both days will be near 70-80 percent. The chance for rain is forecast to decrease beginning Thursday night as the plume of tropical moisture begins to exit to the west.

Rainfall forecasts valid through Thursday evening call for totals as high as 5 to 7 inches for the area stretching from the middle Texas coast, inland to the Austin area, and west to Fredericksburg and Mason. Totals of 7-10 inches are forecast for the area stretching from Corpus Christi, to San Antonio.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Thursday:

The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda counties for the period between Tuesday evening and late Wednesday night. Excessive runoff may result in the flooding of rivers, reeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations across the area. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

Heavy rainfall will not be the only concern over the next couple of days. Strong coastal winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds at the coast could gust over 40 mph. These winds will result in hazardous seas, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents. The National Weather Service has posted a Coastal Flood Watch for tonight through Wednesday night due to the prospect of water levels 4-5 feet (potentially up to 6 feet) above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) during high tide.

Generally speaking, the severe weather threat with the tropical rains over the next couple of days will be low. However, isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out, especially near the coast.

Looking out to the end of the week and the upcoming weekend, there will be a slight chance for some lingering showers on Friday, followed by generally dry weather Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Bob

Here’s an un update on the latest developments in the tropics and a weather outlook through late next week.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to keep a close watch on possible developments in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. While conditions there are currently quiet, the global forecast model solutions and their ensembles continue to call for development of a broad area of low pressure in this general area late Sunday or Monday. Environmental conditions continue to appear conducive for the gradual development of this low pressure system, and a tropical depression could form here during the early or middle part of next week. A strengthening ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. early next week is expected to steer the developing low pressure system or depression west-northwestward toward the eastern or northeastern coast of Mexico.

NHC forecasters are now giving this system a medium chance (a 50 percent chance) for tropical development over the next seven days.

Should a low pressure system or tropical depression develop early next week, it is expected to remain well to the south of the middle and upper Texas coast. However, a broad counterclockwise flow around the area of low pressure is expected pull a plume of tropical moisture already in place across the Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast beginning late Sunday. This plume of moisture is forecast to spread inland to the Interstate 35 corridor by Tuesday, and to central and southern Hill Country on Wednesday. The tropical moisture is expected to cause the development of scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms.

Although direct wind impacts will remain well to the south of our area, wind speeds are forecast to increase a bit early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening area of low pressure to the south and building high pressure over the southeastern U.S. Wind speeds of 20-25 mph can be expected across the coastal plains region, and around 15-20 mph across Central Texas.

Weather Discussion for the Weekend and Next Week

Sunny, dry, and hot weather can be expected this afternoon through Sunday afternoon as a strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere slides east from New Mexico to lower Mississippi Valley. Thanks to some drier air mixing down to the surface, peak heat index readings through Sunday are forecast to remain below 102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and below 106 degrees across the coastal plains region.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and into the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

There will be a 40 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Wharton and Matagorda Counties Sunday afternoon as some of the tropical moisture begins to push inland. The rest of the region should stay dry through Sunday night.

For Monday and Tuesday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the coastal plains region as the deep tropical moisture continues to spread inland. The chance for rain will be around 60-70 percent. Across Central Texas, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms both days as some of the tropical moisture spreads further inland. Little to no rain is forecast across the Hill Country. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and near 90 degrees across the coastal plains.

Wednesday through Thursday, the chance showers and thunderstorms is expected to around 40-50 percent across Central Texas and the Hill Country as the area of deep tropical moisture spreads further inland. A 60-70 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for the coastal plains. High temperatures both days are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees.

Friday into next weekend, the chance for rain is forecast to decrease to around 20 percent across the region as the majority of the deep tropical moisture shifts west toward the Rio Grande  and northern Mexico. Expect a partly cloudy sky with high temperatures in the low and mid-90s.

Rainfall Forecast

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty on rainfall amounts—especially since a tropical system has not even developed. But given the incoming tropical air mass, significant totals of rain are predicted for the coastal plains region. In addition, next week’s tropical-like atmosphere will be capable of producing high amounts of rain in a short period of time.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast through 7 pm next Friday calls for totals of 4-6 inches across Matagorda County, and 2-4 inches across Colorado and Wharton Counties. Across Central Texas, totals of 1-2 inches are forecast. Across the Hill Country, totals of 0.5 to 1 inch are forecast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday, June 21^st

I urge everyone to stay up to date on weather developments over the weekend and early next week.

Bob

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential for a broad area of surface low pressure to possibly develop into a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche late in the weekend or early next week. Should such a system develop, it is forecast to move slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the northern Mexican or southern Texas coast.

Computer forecast solutions indicate a trough axis will move into the central and western Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week. There is some consensus among the solutions for some sort of surface low pressure area to form in the Bay of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat favorable for tropical cyclone formation over this area next week, with low wind shear and a moist atmosphere. A building ridge of high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. would help to steer any potential system to the west or west-northwest.

NHC forecasters are currently giving this system a low chance (20 percent chance) for tropical cyclone development over the next 7 days.

As of right now, it’s way too early to know what impacts this system could have on our region. We’ll begin to get a better handle this over the next few days once the system starts to develop. For now, the main impacts from this system are expected to be felt along and just inland of the Texas coast as increasing tropical moisture will cause elevated rain chances during the early and middle parts of next week. Also, expect elevated tides.

The National Weather Service rainfall forecast for next Monday and Tuesday calls for general totals of 1-3 inches for the middle and upper Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 am Monday through 6 am Wednesday:

Stay tuned for additional updates.

Bob

Just when it appeared the summer heat dome was beginning to set up for the summer, the heat dome weakened on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms developed across parts of the Hill Country Sunday afternoon and evening. This was followed by additional thunderstorms across parts of the Hill Country early Monday morning. The storms generally affected the area between Sonora, Junction, and Mason, along with the western half of Blanco County. Rainfall across the area generally averaged between 1 and 1.5 inches. However, two LCRA Hydromet gauges located in Kimble County did pick up higher totals. A gauge located in western Kimble County, along the North Llano River, measured a 24-hour total of 4.34 inches! A second gauge located in southern Kimble County along the South Llano River, recorded 3.71 inches.

A chance for rain has entered the forecast this afternoon and will continue through Wednesday. Monday’s analysis shows the heat dome has weakened and temporarily shifted south into central Mexico. Meanwhile, A weak cold front has moved south out of the Plains states and sagged into North Texas. As of early Monday afternoon, the front stretched from Fort Stockton, to Brownwood, to just south of Dallas. Forecasts call for the cold front to slowly push to the south this afternoon and tonight, stalling somewhere near the Interstate 10 corridor on Tuesday. With the help of a an area of low pressure located over the Panhandle, the cold front is predicted to be the focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday.

For Monday afternoon and Monday night, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. High resolution forecasts call for an area of thunderstorms to develop across West Texas Monday evening, with some of the storms tracking southeast into parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas late Monday night. Monday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

For Tuesday and Tuesday evening, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some of the thunderstorms, mainly across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country regions, may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms will extend as far east as Columbus. The primary severe weather risks will be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, a couple of the thunderstorms may be slow-moving, with the potential for locally heavy rain. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the low 90s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, there will be a continued 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas as the West Texas area of low pressure finally exits to the northeast.

Wednesday afternoon, the chance for rain looks to decrease to 20 percent as the heat dome begins to spread north in the wake of the departing upper trough. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 90s.

Rain amounts between Monday evening and Wednesday evening are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Mostly sunny, dry, and warmer weather is forecast late week and through the weekend as the heat dome expands north from Mexico, across Texas, and into the Plains states. Warm to hot temperatures are forecast, with daily high temperatures predicted to be in the mid to upper 90s.

Regarding next week’s weather, a plume of deep tropical moisture is currently spreading north out of the western Caribbean Sea into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This moisture is forecast to be drawn northeastward to Florida over the next 2-3 days. Strengthening high pressure over the southeastern U.S. this weekend is expected to shift the plume of tropical moisture westward toward the central Gulf of Mexico and possibly to the western Gulf by early next week. The forecast solutions are hinting a weak surface low may developing over the central or southern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. However, this situation if far from certain. This will be a complex weather pattern, so the forecast solutions are struggling for consistency. If nothing else, some of the tropical moisture shifting westward could spread into parts of Texas next week, possibly bringing our region an increasing chance for rain.

High temperatures next week are forecast to hold mostly in the low and mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Record High Dewpoints in May

If you thought the month of May was unusually humid, you are correct. An analysis by Brian Brettschneider with the National Weather Service (using the ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis data) shows most of South, Central, North, and East Texas recorded the highest dewpoint temperatures on record for the month of May, dating back to 1940. Combining these record high readings with the very warm temperatures, many locations across Texas also set record heat index values in May.

The dewpoint is a measure of how much moisture is in the air. The dew point is defined as the temperature at which water vapor in the air turns into liquid, which would appear as dew on grass or puddles.

Bob