Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Weather Highlights through Late Next Week

• Sunny and dry weather will be in place Friday afternoon through Sunday
• A light freeze will be possible across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Saturday morning
• Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to spread across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. The best chance for rain looks to be along and east of I-35
• Christmas Day weather is expected to be mostly sunny with high temperatures near 68-70 degrees
• A chance for showers will return to the forecast next Thursday

Discussion

Dry, quiet, and cool weather is in place as we head into the weekend before Christmas. Friday’s weather maps showed a stable ridge of high pressure covering the western U.S. that is expected to keep our weather dry and seasonal through Sunday. Forecasters are monitoring a reinforcing blast of cool air that is headed toward our region. As of late Friday morning, the leading edge of this cooler air  was located near the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. The cold front is moving to the south and southwest and is predicted to quietly move across the area late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. As a result, slightly cooler temperatures can be expected Friday night and Saturday.

With a clear sky and light winds in place, a light freeze is forecast across the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas early Saturday morning. Do note temperatures in the Austin metro area are forecast to stay just above freezing. Freezing temperatures appear unlikely Sunday morning due to the return of light southerly breezes beginning Saturday night.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to generally be in the mid-60s
• Low temperatures Saturday morning are predicted to be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and in the upper 30s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Saturday will be in the low 60s
• Lows Sunday morning will generally be near 38-40 degrees
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s
• Lows Monday morning are predicted to be in the mid and upper 50s

Some changes in the weather are forecast to take place Sunday night into Monday as southerly breezes bring increasing moisture to the area. Widespread low clouds will develop Sunday night into Monday morning. The sky should become partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Expect southerly breezes in the range of 10-20 mph.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region during the day Tuesday (Christmas Eve) as trough of low pressure dips south to the southern Plains. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. The trough will help to push a Pacific cold front across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase ahead of and along the cold front. Atmospheric instability doesn’t look particularly impressive with this system; therefore, the threat for strong or severe storms appears quite low. The chance for rain is forecast to diminish from west to east Tuesday night as both systems push east of the area.

Due to the location of the greatest moisture, rainfall is predicted to be heaviest for areas along and to the east of Interstate-35. Totals trough Wednesday morning are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch across the Hill Country and between a quarter and a half inch at most other locations.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 pm Wednesday:

Christmas Day weather looks to be mostly sunny and mild in the wake of the departing storm system.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid-70s
• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the upper 50s to 60 degrees
• Lows Christmas morning will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, to near 50 degrees across Central Texas, to the low and mid-50s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Christmas Day will be near 68-70 degrees
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be  in the upper 40s to low 50s

A chance for rain showers will return to the forecast across the region next Thursday when another trough of low pressure pushes east across the southern Plains. Due to limited moisture return in advance of this system, rain amounts are forecast to only average around a tenth of an inch. The probability for rain Thursday and Thursday night is forecast to be around 30 percent.

Forecasts call for generally dry weather next Friday, followed by a slight chance for rain next weekend as a trough of low pressure sinks south into northern Mexico. As of now, rain amounts from this system are not expected to be very heavy.

Temperatures late week into next weekend are forecast to stay mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for the week of December 30^th.

Winter Solstice Happens Early Saturday Morning

The December solstice occurs when the sun reaches its southernmost point in our sky for this year. That is what’s happening Saturday morning at 3:21 am CST). This solstice marks the unofficial beginning of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the start of the summer season in the Southern Hemisphere.

Did you know that Earth’s seasons are slightly different lengths? And by season, we mean the time between a solstice and an equinox. The season – between the December solstice and March equinox – is a touch shy of 89 days. So it’s Earth’s shortest season. In comparison, the period between the June solstice and autumn equinox is nearly 94 days.

As a matter of fact, every year in early January, the Earth swings closest to the sun for the year. And this nearest point is called Earth’s perihelion. Because Earth reaches perihelion in early January, our planet moves most swiftly in its orbit around that time. Planets move faster when they are closer to the sun than when they are farther from the sun. And it’s why a Northern Hemisphere winter, or Southern Hemisphere summer, is the shortest of the four seasons. It simply takes us fewer days at this time of year to move between a solstice and an equinox, compared to the period in summer.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Weather Highlights for the Week

• There will be a slight chance for a few light rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday afternoon and Monday night
• A Canadian cold front will track through the area Wednesday morning, accompanied by a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain amounts should remain below a quarter inch
• Breezy and cooler weather will follow the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening
• Sunny, dry, and cool weather is forecast late week and this weekend

Discussion

Periods of light to occasionally moderate  rain occurred across the region beginning on Friday and continued through weekend. Rain totals since Friday have generally averaged between a quarter and a half inch for locations along and east of Interstate 35. For much of the Hill Country, totals averaged less than a tenth of an inch. An area of heavier rain developed over the area between La Grange, Columbus, Bellville, and Brenham on Friday. Here, the rain produced widespread totals of 1-1.5 inches. LCRA’s Hydromet gauge located near Industry, in northwestern Bell Country, recorded a weekend total of 3.10 inches.

The week is starting off unseasonably warm and humid thanks to a moderate wind flow off the Gulf of Mexico. There will be a slight chance for a few spotty rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday afternoon through Monday night due to weak atmospheric lift out ahead of cold front located over Northwest Texas. The cold front is predicted to sag south and stall across the northern Hill Country Monday evening, then turn back to the north on Tuesday. Rain amounts through Tuesday morning are forecast to total less than a tenth of an inch. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast across the coastal plains region.

Tuesday’s weather will feature widespread morning clouds, followed by a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. The sky looks to become cloudy again Tuesday night. Warm and humid conditions will continue.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid-70s across the Hill Country, and  in the upper 70s to 80 degrees across Central Texas and the coastal region
• Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s near the coast

The biggest weather highlight of the week is expected to take place Wednesday when a Canadian cold front pushes south across the area. Forecasts call for the cold front to move across the northern Hill Country before sunrise, track across Central Texas Wednesday morning, and the coastal region Wednesday afternoon. An area of light rain showers and possibly a couple of isolated thunderstorms is forecast ahead of and along the cold front as it pushes to the south. The chance for rain will be near 30-40 percent. Low rain amounts are forecast, with totals staying under a quarter inch. The chance for rain will quickly diminish behind the cold front, followed by a mostly sunny sky Wednesday afternoon.

Breezy north winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are forecast Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind speeds are forecast to decrease after midnight Wednesday night. Noticeably cooler air will follow the cold front beginning Wednesday afternoon, with the cooler air continuing through the end of the week. A reinforcing shot of cool air is predicted to spread south through our area late Friday, but no clouds or rain will accompany the front.

Recent forecast data indicates nighttime temperatures may not be quite a cold as were forecast late next week.

• Temperatures on Wednesday are predicted to fall through the 60s behind the cold front
• Lows Thursday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid 40s to upper 40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the mid-60s
• Lows Friday morning will range from the low 40s west, to the upper 40s near the coast
• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s
• Lows Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains

Weekend temperatures are not expected to show much change, with highs in the low and mid-60s, with lows generally in the low 40s.

Looking ahead to next week, sunny and dry weather will continue on Monday. Forecasts are pointing to a mostly cloudy sky with a slight chance to a chance for light rain showers developing Christmas Eve into Christmas Day as a weak trough of low pressure tracks east across North Texas. Rain amounts are forecast to average close to a quarter of an inch. Dry conditions look to follow next Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures next week are expected to be quite mild, with daily highs generally in the 70s, with lows mostly in the 50s.

Winter Solstice Happening Saturday

The winter solstice will occur this Saturday, December 21^st at 3:21 am CST.

The December solstice marks the sun’s southernmost point in the sky, for the entire globe, for this entire year. On this solstice, the sun will be overhead at noon as viewed from the Tropic of Capricorn.  For those of us in the Northern Hemisphere, the December solstice will mark the longest nights and shortest days of the year.

Have a good week!

Bob

We’ll be looking at an active weather pattern over the next week as a series of cold fronts and troughs of low pressure move across Central and South Texas. Each of these features is expected to bring  a chance for rain, with the highest totals of rain with each system expected to occur along and to the east of Interstate 35. Total rain amounts through late next week are forecast to range from a quarter to a half inch across the Hill Country, to around 1 to 1.5 inches for areas located east of Interstate 35. Mild temperatures are predicted through the first half of next week. Colder temperatures  are forecast for the second half of the week and next weekend. Lows are expected in the 30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.

Clouds and moisture made a rapid return into the eastern half of Texas late Thursday into Friday morning in response to a trough of low pressure tracking across the central Rockies. This will yield a cloudy sky for most of the region on Friday. The feed of Gulf moisture is forecast to continue Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, spotty light rain showers and occasional drizzle look likely. Expect a breezy day, with some wind gusts to around 20 mph.

• Friday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the upper 60s, with low 70s towards the coast
• Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s towards the coast

The chance for rain showers looks to increase late Friday night through midday Saturday as the trough over the Rockies pushes east to the Plains states. Moisture and lift appear sufficient for the development of a scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. The chance for rain is forecast to diminish across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a slight chance for showers will continue across Central Texas and the coastal region through late Saturday afternoon. Rain amounts through Saturday are forecast to be quite low—less than a quarter inch. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky Saturday afternoon.

The sky will be cloudy Saturday night. A mostly cloudy sky is forecast across the area Sunday as a second trough of low pressure begins to move into the central Rockies, re-establishing a moderate flow into Texas off the Gulf of Mexico. As moisture levels increase, it will lead to a slight chance for a few spotty rain showers Sunday afternoon. Breezy, warm, and humid weather can be expected.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-70s
• Lows Sunday morning include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s towards the coast
• High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 70s
• Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s

There will be a slight chance for light rain showers across the region Sunday night. The chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase to around 50 percent Monday morning through Monday afternoon as a Pacific cold front associated with the upper trough pushes southeast across the state. A slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast across Central Texas and the coastal region through midnight Monday night as the cold front stalls near the coast. The most favorable area for the development of rain Monday is forecast to be along and to the east of Interstate 35. Here, totals through early Tuesday morning are forecast to average between 0.5 to 1 inch. Across the Hill Country, totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast.

A partly to mostly cloudy sky is predicted for Tuesday into Tuesday night as moisture once again starts to spread north off the Gulf of Mexico.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s
• Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s near the coast
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s
• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low 50s west, to the low 60s near the coast

Forecasts call for yet another trough to dip south out of the northern Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday and will help to push a cold front southeast across Texas Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Conditions appear favorable for the development of light rain showers across the region ahead of and along the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rain should taper off late Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts Wednesday are looking low—generally around a tenth to two tenths of an inch. Mostly sunny and dry weather is expected to follow Thursday through next weekend.

Total rain amounts through next Friday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across the Hill Country, and be between 1 and 1.5 inches across Central Texas and the coastal region.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Next Friday:

Wednesday’s cold front is looking to have Canadian air behind it and will bring cooler readings. This will be followed by an even colder surge of air Thursday into Friday.

High temperatures late week and into next weekend are forecast to be in the mid/upper 50s to the low 60s. Lows Friday through Sunday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, with mid and upper 30s across Central Texas.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

A Canadian cold front pushed south across the state Monday night, bringing much cooler air to the region. Besides the drop in temperature, the front is causing gusty winds. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 are forecast to persist through Tuesday evening, then slowly subside to 5-12 mph after midnight. The sky will clear Tuesday afternoon and should remain clear through Wednesday night.

Some of the coldest temperatures so far this autumn are forecast Tuesday night and again Wednesday night as winds decrease and the sky remains clear. A light freeze appears quite probable for the Hill Country and most of Central Texas outside of the Austin metro area, extending south to near Interstate 10 Tuesday night. The National Weather Service has posted a Freeze Warning from midnight Tuesday night through 8 am Wednesday. This Warning includes the counties of Llano, Burnet, Williamson, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Gillespie, Kendall, Blanco, Hays, Travis, Bastrop, Lee, Comal, Guadalupe, Caldwell, and Fayette Counties. Precautions should be taken to protect pets and tender vegetation.

• High temperatures Tuesday will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s near the coast
• Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be near 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country, near 30-35 across Central Texas, and the mid-30s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be in the low 60s
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, and in the mid-30s at most other locations
• High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid-60s.

Milder temperatures look to develop Thursday as southerly winds return to the area. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph by Thursday afternoon. Gusty conditions will continue into Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday should warm to the mid and upper 60s.

Forecast solutions call for a trough of low pressure to push inland along the southern coast of California Thursday, with the trough then tracking to east to Northwest Texas late Friday. The approaching trough is forecast to cause Gulf moisture to spread north Thursday night. This will likely result in the development of widespread low clouds Thursday night into Friday morning. A partly to mostly cloudy should follow Friday afternoon.

There will be a slight chance for a few light showers across the region Friday night into Saturday morning as the trough of low pressure tracks across northern Texas. Limited instability in the atmosphere looks to keep the rain spotty and light. Rain amounts, if any, through Saturday should total under a tenth of an inch. Partly cloudy, dry and mild weather will follow Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the mid-50s
• Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s near the coast
• Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s
• High temperatures Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are expected to be in the low 70s.

Looking ahead to next week, the latest forecast solutions show a couple of opportunities for rain along with near-normal temperatures. A cold front is predicted to move across the area Monday, bringing with it a slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The most favorable area for rain looks to be along and to the east of Interstate 35. The probability for rain will be near 20 percent across the Hill Country, and near 30 percent for most other locations. Totals through Monday night are forecast to average between a tenth and a quarter inch.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Tuesday through Thursday. Another chance for rain is expected to develop late next week when another trough of low pressure pushes east out of the southern Rockies. Rain amounts late next week are not expected to be very heavy.

High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low 70s. Highs will cool into the low and mid-60s next Tuesday through Friday. Low temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the 40s, with 30s across the Hill Country.

Bob

We’re looking a cool and damp weekend across the region as an overrunning weather pattern begins to set up across the area. However, forecasted rain totals from this period of rain are not expected to be very heavy. A dry weather pattern will follow next week. The biggest weather highlight next week will likely be chilly air the middle of next week that looks to bring the potential for a light freeze to much of Central Texas and the Hill Country Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

The temperature is noticeably cooler on this Friday in the wake of Thursday’s cold front. These cooler readings are expected to hold through the weekend due to widespread clouds and periods of rain. Friday’s weather maps showed a trough of low pressure located over southern Arizona that is slowly tracking to the east. Winds in advance of the trough are producing a large area of overrunning clouds that cover the western half of the state. These clouds look to expand across the rest of the state Friday afternoon and Friday night. As moisture levels increase Friday afternoon, there will be a slight chance for a spotty light rain showers across West Texas and the Hill Country. Most other locations should remain dry. Light rain is forecast to become more widespread across the western half of the state Friday night as the overrunning pattern strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. This area of rain is forecast to spread east to cover most of Central Texas after midnight Friday night.

Saturday through Saturday night, forecasts call for a cloudy sky with periods of widespread, mostly light rain showers. The approaching upper trough is expected to enhance the overrunning cloudy/showery pattern across the entire region. Little or no thunderstorm activity is forecast.

On Sunday, clouds and widespread overrunning light rain is forecast to continue through Sunday morning. The chance for rain is predicted to end from west to east Sunday afternoon as the upper trough lifts up to the northeast, ending the overrunning pattern. In fact, parts of the Hill Country could see a partly cloudy sky develop Sunday afternoon. Partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Sunday night.

Rainfall forecasts for the weekend have trended down a bit after taking into account less Gulf moisture than what was previously thought available. Totals through Sunday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 pm Sunday:

• High temperatures Friday will range from the low 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s near the coast
• Lows Saturday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the lower 40s across Central Texas and the mid-40s across the costal plains
• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-40s across the Hill Country, in the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas, and in the mid-50s across the coastal plains
• Lows Sunday morning will range from the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the low 50s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s

The weather will trend sunny and warmer Monday as southerly breezes return ahead of a trough of low pressure tracking southeast out of the northern Rockies.

• High temperatures Monday forecast to be near 78-80 degrees
• Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low 40s Hill Country, to the mid-50s across the coastal plains

Monday’s trough of low pressure is predicted to push east across the Plains states Tuesday, enabling a Canadian cold front to sink to the south. The front is forecast to race southeast across Texas Monday night, pushing off the middle Texas coast before daybreak Tuesday. Sunny and much cooler weather will follow the cold front next Tuesday through Thursday. Breezy north winds with gusts to 30 mph are forecast behind the cold front Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Some of the coolest air so far this autumn is expected behind the front. Temperatures close to freezing are forecast across Central Texas Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Readings are forecast to fall to or below freezing across the Hill Country both mornings.

• High Tuesday are predicted to be in the low and mid-60s
• Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings will include the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s costal area
• High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be in the upper 50s to low 60s
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be low and mid-60s.

Milder temperatures are expected Friday, continuing through next weekend, with highs in the low 70s, with lows in the 50s.  Forecasts are pointing to a chance for light rain developing next weekend as moisture spreads north from the Gulf.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

The long holiday weekend featured dry weather and pleasant, fall-like temperatures. Many parts of the Hill Country recorded readings at or below freezing Thursday and Friday mornings. The temperature stayed above freezing at most other locations. In Austin, Camp-Mabry’s lowest temperature occurred Friday morning with 39 degrees. Austin-Bergstrom’s lowest temperature also occurred Friday morning, with 37 degrees.

Weather conditions are quiet as we kick off this first week of December. Monday’s weather maps showed a weak cold front situated along the Red River that is dropping to the south. This front is forecast to quietly push south across Texas this Monday afternoon and Monday night, causing the wind to shift back out of the north Monday night into Tuesday.  A sunny sky is forecast Monday afternoon, followed by a partly cloudy sky Monday night.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to generally be around 68-70 degrees
• Lows Tuesday morning will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas, and the upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Clouds are forecast to increase across the area Tuesday in response to weak trough of low pressure tracking to the east out of the Desert Southwest. Clouds and moisture look to begin spreading north from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the approaching trough of low pressure. As moisture levels increase, a slight chance for light rain showers is forecast to develop across the region after midnight Tuesday night. A somewhat better chance for occasional rain showers (40-50 percent) is forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday morning, continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Just a slight chance for rain is forecast Wednesday night. Rain amounts through early Thursday morning are forecast to average less than a tenth of an inch across the Hill Country, and less than a quarter inch across Central Texas.

The approaching upper trough is forecast to bring a better chance for rain showers to the coastal plains region beginning late Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night. Here, the chance for rain will be near 70 percent. Rain amounts through early Thursday morning are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Thursday:

• High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the mid-50s

For Thursday, expect a mostly cloudy sky across the region. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Meanwhile, a slight chance for rain is forecast to continue across the coastal plains. Expect high temperatures in the upper 60s to 70 degrees.

Forecasts call for a cold front to spread south across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, bringing a shot of slightly cooler air for Thursday night and Friday. At the same time, a second trough of low pressure is forecast to set up over the Desert Southwest. This system is predicted to slowly track to the east, moving across Texas this weekend. The advancing trough is expected to cause overrunning clouds and bring a chance for rain showers to the region Friday through Sunday, with the best chance rain expected to occur Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amounts Friday through Monday morning are forecast to average around a half inch across the Hill Country, between 0.5 and 0.75 inches across Central Texas, and 0.5 and 1 inch across the coastal plains region.

Adding in the forecasted rain from the first half of the week with the forecasted rain late week and over the weekend, the National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast valid through 7 pm Monday calls for totals of 0.5 to 0.75 inches across the Hill Country, 0.5 to 1 inch across Central Texas, and 1-2 inches across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 pm Monday, 12/9

High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s. Lows Saturday through Monday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s, with low 50s across the coastal plains.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for partly cloudy and dry weather Monday and Tuesday. A chance for rain showers looks to develop next Wednesday into Thursday as another trough of low pressure moves over the area out the Desert Southwest. As of now, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy with this next system.  High temperatures next week are predicted to be in the 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 40s.

No outbreaks of unusually cold weather are predicted over the next couple of weeks.

Tropical Weather Update

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ended November 30^th. Weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic are quiet as atmospheric conditions are becoming quite unfavorable for tropical development.

November Climate

The month of November featured drier than normal, and much warmer than normal temperatures across the entire region.

Rainfall generally averaged around an inch below normal across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. Rainfall averaged between 1 and 3 inches below normal for areas southeast of Austin.

November’s temperature averaged between 4 and 8 degrees above normal across the entire region. November will likely rank as one of the warmest on record.

For Austin-Camp Mabry, November 2024 ranked as the 4^th warmest and the 70^th driest/55^th wettest November on record.

Bob

The quiet and dry weather pattern we’ve seen as of late is expected to continue for another week as very limited moisture is able to return off the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream pattern across the country is currently in the process of changing, with a ridge of high pressure setting up across the western U.S., and a downstream trough of low pressure developing across the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. Over the next week, the developing trough is going to allow a series of cold fronts to push southeast out of Canada, bringing cool air into the eastern half of the nation. This period of cooler weather is predicted to extend out for at least the next couple of weeks. While we are looking at a change to a cooler pattern, the latest forecast data indicates the coldest air should remain to the north and east of Central Texas. As of now, no widespread freezing temperatures are forecast across our region through at least the first week of December.

As of early Monday afternoon, the first in a series of cold fronts was quickly pushing south across Central Texas. The front is forecast to continue moving to the south Monday afternoon and should move off the middle Texas coast around sunset.  Behind the front, winds will shift to the north and wind speeds should increase to around 10-20 mph as temperatures cool through the 70s and 60s. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-80s. Breezy and cooler weather is forecast Monday night, followed by sunny and cool weather Tuesday. Milder readings will begin returning Tuesday night.

• Lows Tuesday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the upper 40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be around 68-70 degrees
• Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s

A brief, but significant warm-up is expected on Wednesday as breezy south and southwesterly winds develop ahead of the next cold front that will be pushing south out of the Plains state. Expect wind speeds of 10-15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.

• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to climb to the mid-80s across the region

The next cold front is predicted to push south across the region Wednesday night, bringing a much colder airmass behind it. The front will likely result in a mostly sunny, cool, and breezy Thanksgiving Day. Expect northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph Thursday into Thursday evening, with wind speeds decreasing Thursday night. Mostly sunny and cool weather will continue on Friday.

• Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the low 50s across Central Texas, to the upper 50s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Thanksgiving Day will include the upper 50 to low 60s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-60s across Central Texas, and the mind-60s across the coastal plains
• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the low 60s
• Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the upper 30s across the Hill Country, be near 40 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-40s across the coastal plains

Forecasts call for another cold front to push south across the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cool air. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop behind the front on Sunday. Expect a sunny to mostly sunny sky both Saturday and Sunday.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 60s
• Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be near 60-62 degrees
• Lows Monday morning are predicted to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low 40s across the coastal plains

The outlook for next week calls for temperatures to trend a little milder, with highs reaching the low 70s the second half of the week. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 40s, warming to the low 50s late week. Forecasts continue to point to a chance for rain developing next Tuesday through Thursday as a trough of low pressure developing off the coast of northern Mexico creates an overrunning pattern of clouds and rain across Texas.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic as we move through the last days of hurricane season. Tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday. After such an unusually warm September and October, enjoy the cooler weather.

Bob

It’s finally begun to feel like fall thanks to the Canadian cold front which moved through the area late Tuesday.  Minimum temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings were in the 30s and 40s across the region, with a few low-lying Hill Country locations dipping into the 20s. While we didn’t see a widespread freeze, the temperature Thursday morning did reach freezing as far south as La Grange. Austin-Camp Mabry recorded a low temperature of 41 degrees Thursday and 45 degrees Friday. Austin-Bergstrom Airport recorded a low of 33 degrees Thursday and a low of 36 degrees Friday.

A dry and very quiet weather pattern is currently in place across the state thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching north out of Mexico. This quiet pattern is forecast to continue through the weekend and also through much of next week, including Thanksgiving Day, as the high pressure ridge remains over the area. However, some big temperature fluctuations can be expected over the next week, as warm readings making a return, followed by cooler temperatures Thanksgiving through the following weekend.

Here’s a breakdown of expected weather conditions leading up to Thanksgiving:

Friday

Sunny and slightly warmer weather can be expected Friday afternoon.

• High temperatures are predicted to be in the low and mid-70s
• Lows Saturday morning will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains

Saturday through Sunday

Sunny and warmer weather is forecast both days. Southerly breezes with speeds of 5-10 mph are forecast Saturday. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to a range of 10-15 mph Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as the pressure gradient strengthens across the state. Wind speeds look to increase further to a range of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph Sunday through Sunday night.

• High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 70s
• Lows Sunday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s
• High temperature Sunday are forecast to be in the low 80s
• Lows Monday morning will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s across the coastal plains

Monday through Wednesday

A sunny to mostly sunny sky and dry weather will continue. Forecasts call for a Pacific cold front to push south across the area Monday evening and Monday night, bringing cooler temperatures for Tuesday. However, southerly winds are predicted to develop Wednesday and will bring a return of warmer temperatures. These warm readings are expected to be short-lived as a stronger Canadian cold front is predicted to push south across the area Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. .

• High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid-80s
• Lows Tuesday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 50s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 70s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid-50s to low 60s.
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
• Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s across the coastal plains

Thanksgiving Day

Mostly sunny, breezy, and slightly cooler weather is forecast in the wake of Wednesday night’s cold front.

• High temperatures will range from the mid-60s across the Hill Country, to the mid-70s towards the coast
• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains

Friday through Next Weekend

Partly cloudy and cooler weather is forecast. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 40s at most other locations.

Looking out into the week of December 2^nd, long-range forecasts are pointing to a chance for light rain showers across the area the first half of the week as a weak trough of low pressure moves in from the west. Rain amounts are forecast to remain below a half inch. The cool pattern looks to continue with highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions appear unfavorable for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Orion the Hunter’s Season in the Sky

November evenings are a great time to say hello to everyone’s favorite constellation: Orion the Hunter. Find Orion now and enjoy it for months to come! Without a doubt, Orion is the easiest-to-identify of all constellations. Look for it in the eastern sky this month, between the hours of 10 pm  and midnight. You’ll notice Orion’s Belt first. The Belt is made of three stars in a short, straight row. The Belt stars aren’t the brightest in the sky. But they’re the reason Orion will catch your eye. And you’ll also notice Orion’s two brightest stars – Betelgeuse and Rigel – shining on opposite sides of the Belt.

You can find this constellation easily. Then you can point it out to your friends!

Have a great weekend!

Bob

A Pacific cold front moved across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday morning, bringing rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Unfortunately, rain amounts weren’t very heavy. Totals across the western half of the Hill Country were generally below two tenths of an inch. Across the eastern Hill Country and most of Central Texas, totals through noon were generally between a quarter and a half inch. A  few totals of just over an inch were noted across northern Llano and southern San Saba Counties.

As of early Monday afternoon, the cold front stretched from just east of College Station, to near Columbus, to Cuero. Forecasts call for the front to slowly push to the east Monday afternoon and should push off the coast Monday evening. There will be an 80-90 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the coastal plains region Monday afternoon. However, rain amounts should total less than a quarter inch. Here, the chance for rain should diminish early Monday evening.

Dry and slightly cooler air is spreading into the area behind the front. Gusty winds with speeds of 15-25 mph are forecast Monday afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish to 5-10 mph Monday evening and Monday night. Sunny and a little warmer weather will follow on Tuesday.

• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s across the coastal plains
• Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 70s across the Hill Country, towards the coast
• Lows Wednesday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s coastal area

The highlight of this week’s weather will likely be a Canadian cold front that is predicted to plunge south through our region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. With so little moisture in place, no rain is forecast with the front. Sunny, cooler, and drier weather will follow the cold front Wednesday through Friday. Brisk northerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph can be expected Wednesday, followed by light winds Wednesday night through Friday. Some of the coldest temperatures so far this autumn are forecast Wednesday night. However, widespread freezing temperatures are not expected across the Hill Country region. Many low-lying areas here may experience a light freeze, but most Hill Country locations should stay just above freezing.

• High temperatures Wednesday will range from the low and mid-60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s across the coastal plains
• Highs Thursday and Friday are predicted to be in the low and mid-70s
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low 40s coastal region
• Lows Friday and Saturday mornings will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the mid-40s across Central Texas, and the upper 40s coastal plains

Sunny and milder weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend as southerly breezes return off the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures are predicted to be near 80 degrees Saturday, and into the low to mid-80s Sunday. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings look to be in the mid and upper 50s.

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and dry weather Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s. Cooler temperatures are forecast Wednesday through Friday following the passage of a weak cold front. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Long-range forecasts do call for a slight chance for rain Thanksgiving Day and next Friday as a large trough of low pressure develops across the western U.S. The forecast solutions point to a slightly better chance for rain over the weekend following Thanksgiving.

The latest forecast data doesn’t point to any outbreaks of unusually cold air into our region over the next 2-3 week period.

Tropical Weather Update

Over the weekend, tropical Storm Sara moved west across the Yucatan Peninsula and its circulation fell apart. The system was downgraded to a post-tropical storm early Monday. The remnants of Sara could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast during the next couple of days, but tropical storm regeneration appears unlikely due to strong wind shear.

Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is quiet and there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season appears to finally be winding down.

Have a great week!

Bob