Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Friday started off rather chilly. LCRA’s Hydromet showed temperatures reached the mid-30s to low 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and the mid to upper 40s across the middle Texas coast. It’s interesting to note that many traditional low spots, including Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, recorded low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. ABIA recorded a low of 32 degrees, while Austin-Camp Mabry recorded a low of 44 degrees.

The area of high pressure which brought the cool air into our region has moved off to the east, causing the return of southerly breezes. Wind speeds are predicted to increase to a range of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the pressure gradient strengthens. The air mass is currently quite dry across as low-level moisture will take some time to return off the Gulf. Minimum relative humidity levels are forecast to reach the teens to low 20 percent range Friday afternoon. The combination of the strong winds, low humidity levels, and dry vegetation is expected to cause elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the entire region Friday afternoon. Any fires that happen to develop will spread quickly. All types of outdoor burning are not recommended!

Sunny and warmer weather is forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday. Wind speeds are predicted to decrease to 5-10 mph Friday night, but increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Saturday. Meanwhile, relative humidity levels are forecast to be higher Friday night through Saturday as low-level moisture slowly returns off the Gulf. The higher relative humidity levels should cause fire weather conditions to improve some on Saturday.

Fire Danger Forecast for Friday and Saturday (Texas A&M Forest Service):

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s
• Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the low 50s
• High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the low and mid-80s
• Lows Sunday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-80s

A trough of low pressure moving east across the Plains on Sunday will help to a Pacific cold front across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The front is forecast move across the coastal plains region after midnight Sunday night. Ahead of the cold front, low-level moisture is expected to spread north from the Gulf, causing a partly cloudy sky.  Forecasts indicate a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany the cold front when it moves across the area Sunday evening and Sunday night. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent. Low rain amounts are forecast, with most totals averaging around a tenth of an inch or less.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Friday through 7 am Monday:

Quiet and warm weather is forecast for the first half of next week as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas. High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the mid-80s. Highs Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.

Forecasts call for a temporary change in the persistent dry weather pattern late next week when a trough of low pressure is predicted to slowly track from northern Mexico eastward across Central and South Texas. This system is expected to pull considerable moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico and cause the development of widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across a large part of Texas beginning Wednesday night, continuing Thursday through Friday. This will be very beneficial rain! National Weather Service rainfall forecasts are showing the potential for totals between 1 and 2 inches across Central and South Texas next Thursday through Friday. Cumulative totals of more than 2 inches will be possible over parts of the Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:

Dry and warm weather is forecast next weekend, continuing into the start of April.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its outlook for spring Thursday, and for most of Texas, the outlook is not optimistic for significant rain and quite bullish for warmer than-normal temperatures.

CPC’s precipitation outlook for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions leans toward below normal rainfall (35 to 40 percent) and persisting drought conditions.

CPC’s temperature outlook calls for temperatures to average above normal across Texas (50 to 60 percent).

Forecasters behind the outlook indicated La Niña is weakening quickly and should fade away in April. However, La Nina’s typical winter pattern of below-normal rainfall across the southwestern U.S. is expected to hang on through much of spring. While several storm systems will likely move across the area into June, the most favorable area for rain is predicted to occur mainly from East Texas through the Deep South.

Thursday’s spring outlook coincides with one of the driest months of March on record. Monthly totals have generally only averaged about a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coast regions.

Bob

No change to the current dry and warm weather pattern is expected this week across Texas. Forecasts call for the storm track to remain to the north of the state continuing into next week. At the same, only limited amounts of moisture will be able to spread north from the Gulf. This will result in continued sunny, dry, and breezy weather conditions stretching into next week. Unfortunately, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue—especially for areas located along and to the west of Interstate 35.

Monday through Wednesday

Developing low pressure across the southern Rockies Monday is creating a strengthening pressure gradient across the state. This will result in the development of breezy southerly winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts to near 30 mph Monday afternoon and Monday night. Despite winds being off the Gulf, very dry air is predicted to continue into Monday evening. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to fall below 20 percent across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor Monday afternoon into Monday evening.  This combination of gusty winds, very dry air, and critically to extremely dry fuels will create Critical Fire Weather conditions for areas along and west of Interstate 35. The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for this general area through 10 pm Monday evening.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s
• Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low and mid-50s
• High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be in the mid-80s
• Lows Wednesday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s, with upper 60s expected towards the coast
• Highs Wednesday will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the low 80s near the coast

Even stronger winds are forecast across the area Tuesday as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of a storm system pushing east out of the southern Rockies. Gusts to near 40 mph are predicted for most of the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Relative humidity readings are forecast to be slightly higher—in the range of 15-25 percent. The strong wind and dry air will likely create more critical fire weather conditions for areas along and to the west of Interstate 35. The NWS indicates they may post another Red Flag Warning for this area on Tuesday.

Forecasts call for a cold to sweep southeast across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. No rain is expected with the front as most of the atmospheric dynamics will remain well north of our region. The front will bring drier and slightly cooler air. In addition, strong northerly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 30 mph can be expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. The combination of the strong winds and dry air will likely cause elevated to critical fire weather conditions in place across the entire region on Wednesday.

Wednesday through Saturday

Cooler air will spread across the area Wednesday night through Thursday. Milder air will begin returning Friday into Saturday. Lighter winds are forecast Thursday, which should help ease the fire threat temporarily. However, wind speeds are forecast to increase Friday and through the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast.

• Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low 70s
• Lows Friday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s
• Highs Friday are forecast to be near 78-80 degrees
• Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid 50s
• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be mid-80s

Sunday and Next Week

Forecasts call for a cold front to push southeast across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Unlike the past few fronts, a bit more moisture is forecast to return ahead of the front. This will result in a slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front when it moves across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions. Rain amounts, are predicted to only be around a tenth of an inch.

Dry weather is forecast next Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs in the 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Another chance for rain is showing up for the middle of next week when a trough of low pressure moves over the area. Rain amounts are forecast to again only be around a tenth of an inch. Highs mid and late week are forecast to be in the 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s.

First Day of Astronomical Spring

Astronomical spring, or the Vernal Equinox, begins on Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 4:01am CST. Near equal amounts of daylight and darkness will result.

Bob

…A Red Flag Warning has been posted Friday for West Texas, the Hill Country, and Central Texas…

…A  Fire Weather Watch has been posted for the entire region Saturday ahead of additional critical fire weather conditions…

Weather Highlights

• Critical fire weather conditions will materialize across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon due to very dry air and strong winds
• A Red Flag Warning has been posted through 9 pm Friday evening
• Critical fire weather conditions are predicted for the entire region Saturday due to continued dry air and strong winds
• A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for Saturday
• Fire weather conditions are forecast to improve Sunday into Monday
• Critical fire weather conditions will return next Wednesday when a Pacific front brings more dry and windy weather
• Sunny and dry weather is forecast Sunday, continuing through late next week

Discussion

Our weather over the next week is forecast to remain rain-free. Passing disturbances, unusually dry air, and strong winds will combine to produce several periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region. Unfortunately, no significant rain is on the weather horizon.

A trough of low pressure lifting northeast of new Mexico Friday afternoon is expected to help pull the dry line from West Texas eastward across the Hill Country and into Central Texas. Forecasts call for the dry line to move into the Interstate 35 corridor early to mid-afternoon Friday, then slowly continue moving to the east late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Behind the dry line, relative humidity values are forecast to fall below 20 percent. Meanwhile, a strong pressure gradient associated with the trough of low pressure is expected to cause surface winds to become quite strong Friday afternoon.

• Wind speeds across the Hill Country are forecast to be in the range of 20-30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph
• Wind speeds across Central Texas are forecast to be in the range of 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph
• Wind speeds across the middle Texas coast are forecast to be in the range of 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph

The strong winds and very dry air will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon. The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through 9 pm Friday evening. Fire weather conditions are not expected to be quite as extreme for areas south of Interstate 10 due to slightly higher relative humidity readings.

Areas of blowing dust will be possible across the Hill County and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has posted a Blowing Dust Advisory for the western and northern Hill country through 8 pm Friday evening. Under a mostly sunny sky, Friday’s temperature is forecast to reach the low and mid-80s across the Hill Country, and the upper 80s to low 90s across the rest of the region.

Friday night, the dry line is forecast to merge with a Pacific cold front and slowly push east across the coastal plains. Wind speeds across the region are forecast to decrease around 10-15 mph late Friday evening through Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the low to mid-60s coastal region.

Interestingly, there will be a slight chance (20 percent chance) for the development of a few isolated thunderstorms after midnight Friday for areas along and east of Interstate 35 when a second trough of low pressure tracks east across northern Texas. This system is forecast to be quite dynamic, but it will be starved for moisture. Nevertheless, it could initiate a couple of isolated thunderstorms over the area. Should any storms happened to develop, they may contain rain and small hail.

Saturday’s weather will be mostly sunny and slightly cooler as the second trough exits to the east.  Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s. However, very dry air with relative humidity values below 20 percent are forecast to be in the place across the entire region by Saturday afternoon.  A moderate to strong pressure gradient behind the departing trough is expected to keep wind speeds strong Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Expect westerly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and occasional gusts to 40 mph. The combination of the very dry air and strong winds is expected to cause critical fire weather conditions. As a result, the NWS has posted a Fire Weather Watch for the entire region for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch is issued when the combination of dry fuels and weather conditions support extreme fire danger. The Fire Weather Watch may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning on Saturday. Fire weather conditions should improve by midnight Saturday night as wind speeds decrease to 5-10 mph.

Fire Danger Outlook from the Texas A&M Forest Service:

Sunny, dry, and less windy weather is forecast Sunday into Monday. High temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 70s Sunday, and in the low and mid-80s Monday. Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s. Lows Tuesday morning look to be in the mid and upper 50s.

Another high fire danger period is forecast to develop Wednesday when a Pacific trough of low pressure moves from the Great Basin to the southern Plains states. This system is expected to push another dry Pacific cold front across the state next Wednesday. Wind speeds are predicted to increase to 15-25 mph Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the region Wednesday as drier air spreads in behind the cold front.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s next Wednesday, cooling into the low 70s Thursday.  Highs are predicted to warm back to the low and mid-80s by next weekend.

Forecasts remain quite pessimistic for any significant rain developing through the end of the month.

Bob

…Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are forecast to develop across West Texas, the Hill Country, and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon and evening…

 …Any fires developing today could be very difficult to control and will likely spread rapidly…

A dry line currently situated across West Texas is forecast to shift east this morning through the afternoon hours, bringing extremely dry air. Relative humidity values are forecast to fall below 15 percent behind the dry line. Meanwhile, strong winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to near 45 mph are predicted to develop across West Texas and expand east across the Hill Country through the afternoon. The combination of the very dry air, strong winds, and dormant vegetation will set the stage for critical to extreme fire weather conditions.

The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for all of West Texas, the Hill Country, and the Interstate 35 corridor between Temple, Austin, San Antonio, and Pearsall, from noon until 9 pm Wednesday evening.

Forecasts call for the windy conditions and the very dry air to spread east across the Hill Country this afternoon. The dry and windy conditions are forecast to reach the Interstate 35 corridor sometime late this afternoon, continuing through the early evening hours.

The extreme fire weather conditions should begin to abate around mid-evening as wind speeds decrease to 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

For areas located to the east of Interstate 35, the threat for critical to extreme weather will not be as high today due higher relative humidity values and somewhat lighter winds. But with dry conditions in place, fire weather conditions here will still be elevated.

Everyone is urged to limit outdoor activities today that might ignite a fire. These include avoiding any sort of outdoor burning, keeping vehicles off of dry grass, and properly discarding all cigarettes.

Another period of critical fire weather conditions appears to be coming together across the area for Friday into Saturday as strong winds and dry air develop once again.

Bob

Weather Highlights

• Sunny and dry weather will be in place throughout the week
• An approaching storm system will cause gusty winds to increase across the region Tuesday through Wednesday
• A second system is expected to cause another period of strong and gusty winds Friday into Saturday
• Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will develop due to the strong winds, dry air, and dead vegetation.
• Long-range forecasts call for little to no rain across the area next week

Discussion

Saturday’s cold front brought a blast of colder air that lingered into Monday morning. In fact, a light freeze occurred across a large part of the Hill Country early Monday. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, low temperatures Monday morning included the upper 20s to mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s to mid-40s across the coastal plains region.

We’re looking at another week of spring-like weather across the region, featuring more periods of strong wind and elevated fire risks. Unfortunately, no rain is forecast through the upcoming weekend as the atmosphere over Texas looks to remain too dry and stable.

The weather will be sunny and quiet Monday through Tuesday. At the surface, a large dome of Canadian high pressure will be shifting off to the east Monday afternoon and Monday night, causing the return of west and southwesterly winds. Speeds of 5-10 mph are forecast Monday afternoon and Monday night. Wind speeds are predicted to increase to a range of 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph Tuesday through Tuesday night. With the return of southwesterly breezes, warmer temperatures are forecast.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the upper 70s
• Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the mid-40s
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 80-82 degrees
• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s across the coastal plains

Mostly sunny and breezy weather is forecast Wednesday. Our weather will be influenced by a fast-moving trough of low pressure that will be lifting northeast our or northern Mexico. A lack of moisture ahead of this system will likely preclude the development of any rain or storms as the trough moves across Northwest Texas. However, a strong pressure gradient around the trough is expected to cause gusty southwesterly winds at speeds of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Wind speeds will stay strong into Wednesday night, then decrease to around 5-10 mph on Thursday. Sunny and less breezy weather is forecast Thursday in the wake of the departing upper tough.

• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• Lows Thursday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s
• High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
• Lows Friday morning will be in the low 60s

Warm and windy weather is forecast to develop across the region Friday as yet another Pacific trough of low pressure tacks from southern California to the southern Plains states. With this system, the surface and upper level low pressure systems are forecast to be nearly on top of each other, and the stacked low pressure system is expected to  generate a large-scale swath of intense surface winds stretching from southern Texas northeastward through the Plains and into the Midwest. Friday winds are forecast to be in the range of 15-25 mph, with gusts to near 40-45 mph. Wind speeds are predicted to decrease Friday night into Saturday as a Pacific cold moves east across the state.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be around 90 degrees
• Lows Saturday morning are will range from the low 50s across the Hill Country, to near 60 degrees towards the coast

Sunny, dry, and mild weather will continue for the upcoming weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the state. High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid-70s, warming to the low 80s on Sunday. Lows look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Looking ahead to next week, more sunny and mild weather is forecast. A trough lifting northeast to the Plains states Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely cause another period of strong winds the middle of the week. A few spotty light rain showers may accompany a Pacific cold front on Wednesday. However, rain amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch are forecast.

No big changes in the temperature are forecast. Highs next Monday through Wednesday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the mid-60s. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for next Thursday and Friday.

Fire Weather Concerns

Increasing winds and low relative humidity  readings will combine to produce elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

The fire threat should lower somewhat on Thursday.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be in place across the Hill Country and Central Texas region Friday into Saturday due to very strong winds and low relative humidity levels develop ahead of and behind a Pacific cold front.

Residents are urged to exercise care with respect to all outdoor activities that could inadvertently cause wildfires.

Total Eclipse of the Moon Thursday Night

There will be a total lunar eclipse of the full “earthworm” full moon visible across all of North America Thursday night into Friday morning. In a lunar eclipse, the Earth’s shadow will move across the moon, causing the moon to go nearly dark. However, light flowing through edge of Earth’s atmosphere is expected to cause a reddish color to the moon.

Total eclipse begins at 1:26 am CDT, mid-eclipse will be at 1:59 am CDT, with the total eclipse ending at 2:32 am CDT.

No special glasses or equipment will be needed to see this spectacular event!

Bob

Weather Highlights

• No substantial rain is forecast over the next week
• A cold front will push across the area Saturday morning bringing drier air, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon through Monday morning
• Frost and possible light freezes will be possible across the Hill Country Sunday and Monday mornings
• Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast Saturday and Sunday
• Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are also forecast Wednesday and again next Friday

Discussion

The weather pattern is expected to stay active over the next couple of weeks, with a series of storm systems expected to push east across the southern Plains. Unfortunately, atmospheric conditions  aren’t looking favorable for the development of any substantial rain with any of these systems. Each system is expected to bring windy conditions to much of the area. This will likely keep elevated fire weather conditions in place through most of next week.

Friday’s weather is expected to be mostly sunny and very spring-like as warmer and more humid air spreads north from the Gulf. High temperatures are predicted to generally be in the low and mid-80s. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s across the coastal plains. Winds speeds are expected to be in the range of 5-10 mph.

Changes in the weather will take place Saturday as a trough of low pressure pushes east from the Desert Southwest. The trough is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains Saturday morning and the Red River Vally late Saturday into Sunday. The trough will help push a cold front across Texas Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. The front is forecast to sweep across the Hill Country in the hours just before and after sunrise, reaching the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor mid-morning. The front should push off the middle Texas coast around mid-afternoon. A few light rain showers or isolated thunderstorms may occur across the northern half of the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas (including Austin) when the front moves across the area. Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a tenth of an inch. For most of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, no rain is forecast with the cold front.

Breezy northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and and much drier air will follow the cold front Saturday. The combination of breezy conditions and very dry air on Saturday will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the region. The National Weather Service is pinpointing the western two-thirds of Central Texas and the southern Hill Country where somewhat stronger winds may cause critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for this area through 8 pm Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch is issued for areas where developing fires could be difficult to control and could spread rapidly.

Northwesterly winds with gusts to near 30 mph are forecast Sunday. With dry air in place, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue—especially for areas across the Hill Country.

Everyone is urged to avoid any outdoor activities Saturday and Sunday that could inadvertently cause wildfires.

Cooler air will spread into the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday night. In fact, frost and some light freezes will be possible across parts of the Hill Country Sunday and Monday mornings. Expect a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

• Saturday’s afternoon’s temperature is forecast to fall into the 60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the 70s across the coastal plains
• Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Timmerman, and mid-40s towards the coast
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to generally be in the low 60s
• Lows Monday morning are predicted to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas, and the low 40s coastal plains

Sunny and warmer weather will return Monday into Tuesday as southerly breezes establish. Fire weather concerns should abate some Monday and Tuesday as humidity levels slowly increase. However, wind speeds are forecast to increase back to 10-20 mph on Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 70s Monday, warming to the upper 70s Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s. Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the 50s.

Forecasts call for another trough of low pressure to eject from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains states late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system is expected to push another dry cold front across the area Wednesday morning, bringing more dry and strong westerly winds for Wednesday afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are predicted to develop across the entire region Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s.

Sunny and very warm weather is forecast next Thursday and Friday in the wake of the departing storm system. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 90 degrees.

Forecasters are closely monitoring weather developments for next Friday and Saturday when a large and even stronger trough of low pressure is forecast to  push east out of northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Unfortunately, little to no rain is expected with the system. However, very windy conditions are forecast to develop across the region—possibly similar to what our region experienced last Tuesday. The strong winds and dry air will likely cause critical fire weather conditions to develop next Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned for more details as the forecast solutions get a better handle on this storm system.

The outlook for the week of March 17^th calls for continued mild temperatures with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Time Change Weekend

Daylight Saving Time begins Sunday, March 9^th, at 2 am. Remember to “spring forward”, setting all clocks ahead one hour before going to bed Saturday night. Evenings will contain more daylight and early mornings will be a bit darker after the time change.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

It’s become an extremely windy day across Texas, thanks to a strong storm system over southern Kansas creating very strong pressure gradient winds. In addition, today’s weather setup is also allowing strong winds from the middle and lower atmosphere to make it to the surface, where they are enhancing the strong gusts. Since late morning, wind gusts of 40-55 mph have been common across most of the Hill Country and Central Texas. Just before 2 pm, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport’s recorded a peak gust of 48 mph. The strong west winds have also brought in some extremely dry air from northern Mexico. Relative humidity levels as of 2 pm were generally between 10 and 20 percent across the region.

Forecasts call for very strong winds with gusts up to 50 mph to continue through late afternoon. The wind is expected to decrease slightly, with gusts to near 35 mph are predicted up to midnight. Gusts to near 20 mph are forecast after midnight. For Wednesday, forecasts call for northerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph. Light winds are predicted for Wednesday night, but gusty winds to near 30 mph are forecast to return Thursday into Thursday night.

The combination of the very strong winds and low relative humidity levels will cause an extreme fire danger through late afternoon. Any fires that happen to develop today will rapidly increase in size and intensity, move quickly, and become very difficult to suppress and control. A Red Flag Warning  remains posted through late afternoon. After sunset Tuesday evening, the threat for wildfires will slowly decrease as relative humidity levels rise and winds decrease.

A visible satellite image from just before 2 pm showed a large area of West Texas dust covering much of the northern and central Hill Country as well as a large part of West Texas. (the enhanced are of brown over these areas). The visibility was down to about a mile in Junction and Brady, and near 3 miles in Llano. The area of dust is spreading to the east-northeast may spread to the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor by late afternoon.

NOAA/University of Colorado/RAMMB 03/04/25 2:10 pm CST

For those traveling across the Hill Country this afternoon, take note if the visibility becomes too

low to drive, pull off the road as far as possible. The National Weather Service advises to stop and turn off all lights. Take your foot off the brakes so taillights are not illuminated and wait for conditions to improve.

Today’s very windy and dusty weather is a somewhat rare event for the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions. From a climatological perspective, it is an event seen on average only about once over a ten year period.

Bob

Spring-like temperatures will continue this week  as a series of Pacific cold fronts move across Texas. Unfortunately, none of the fronts are expected bring significant rain. The first of the cold fronts is expected to move across our region late Monday night into Tuesday morning. In advance of the cold front, moisture levels are increasing thanks to a moderate flow off the Gulf. This will result in the mostly cloudy sky. A spotty light shower or two will be possible for areas east of Interstate 35 through Monday evening. Monday’s high temperature is predicted to reach near 78-80 degrees.

The Pacific cold front is forecast to reach West Texas late Monday evening and move across the Hill Country roughly between 4 and 6 am Tuesday. The front is expected to spread across the Austin/I-35 corridor between 6 and 8 am, the Intestate 10 corridor between 9 am and noon, moving off the middle Texas coast by early afternoon. Atmospheric conditions appear to be most favorable for shower and thunderstorm development with the cold front over North and Northeast Texas. However, forecasts call for a thin line of showers and isolated thunderstorms  to develop along the cold front when it tracks east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. A stable layer in the middle atmosphere is expected to limit the development of severe storms across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions. However, one or two of the thunderstorms may be strong with gusty winds.

Since the front and the area of rain will be moving so quickly, rain amounts are predicted to remain below a quarter inch.

Behind the cold front, the sky will clear as mild and much drier air arrives. The wind will shift to the west and northwest with sustained speeds of 25-35 mph. Due to a strengthening pressure gradient, gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through Tuesday afternoon.  Gusts to near 40 mph are predicted for the coastal plains. In addition to the windy conditions, the air on Tuesday will be unusually dry. Forecasts call for relative humidity levels to fall to a range of 5-15 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 15 and 20 percent across the coastal region.

The strong winds and very low humidity levels will combine to create a very high to extreme fire danger across the entire region. Because of this, the National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for the Hill Country, all of Central Texas, and much of West Texas Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. The combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. Residents are urged to exercise care with respect to all outdoor activities that could inadvertently cause wildfires.

Wind speeds are forecast to decrease and humidity level increase after sunset on Tuesday. This should gradually reduce the extreme fire weather threat.

Areas of blowing dust are forecast across much of West Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and the western Hill Country Tuesday. Under a sunny sky, high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s.

A cooler, drier airmass will settle across the region late Tuesday into Thursday as northwesterly winds prevail behind Tuesday’s cold front. Expect a sunny to mostly sunny sky both days.

• High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 60s
• Low temperatures Wednesday morning are predicted to be in the mid-40s across the Hill Country, with upper 40s at most other locations
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the low 40s at most locations

Mostly sunny and much warmer weather is forecast Friday as southerly breezes return to the area.  Expect high temperatures in the low 80s.

Forecasts call for a weak Canadian cold front to move across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. As of now, atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for the development of rain along the front. Sunny and slightly cooler weather is forecast Saturday and Sunday.

• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be near 68-72 degrees
• Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s near the coast
• Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and dry weather throughout the week as the storm track remains well to the north of Texas. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s, with lows generally in the 50s.

There are still no signs of any arctic air spreading into our region over the next 2-3 weeks.

Time Change Weekend

Daylight Saving Time begins this Sunday, March 9th, at 2 am. Remember to “spring forward” and set all clock ahead one hour before going to bed Saturday night. After the time change, there will be more light in the evening and less light in the morning.

Have a good week.

Bob