Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A resilient, late-summer-like weather pattern will continue over the weekend and the first half of next week thanks to a persistent ridge of high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. With the ridge in place, no significant change in the weather is forecast through next Tuesday. A pattern of late night clouds and afternoon sunshine looks to continue.

In the near-term, forecasters are keeping watch on a weak cold front that slipped south into Northwest Texas Thursday night. The front is expected to spread south into the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Friday afternoon into Friday evening, stalling just to the north of Austin and Fredericksburg Friday night. No rain is forecast with the cold front. Areas north of the front are predicted to see slightly cooler temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. The front is forecast to return back to the north on Saturday.

Southerly winds with speeds of 5-10 mph and occasional gusts to 15 mph are predicted Friday afternoon through Monday.

Breezy to somewhat windy conditions are forecast to develop next Tuesday and Wednesday as the pressure gradient strengthens across the state ahead of a storm system across the West. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and occasionally gusts of 30-35 mph. Note: the combination of very warm temperatures, gusty winds, and critically dry vegetation may  be sufficient for fire initiation and fire spread. Continue to avoid activities that could produce fire starts and remember to obey local burn bans and regulations.

• High temperatures Friday through Tuesday are forecast to generally be between  88 and 90 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Hill Country high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-60s across Central Texas, to the upper 60s near the coast
• Lows Sunday morning through Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country, and in the mid and upper 60s at most other locations

Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure to push inland along the coast of California and the Pacific Northwest early next week. The trough is forecast to push east across the Rockies then turn northeast into central and northern Plains the second half of next week. In addition, the trough is forecast to finally push the persistent ridge of high pressure off to the east, finally opening the door for some weather changes across our region.

Moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico beginning next Wednesday.  With a less stable atmosphere in place, there will be a 20 percent chance for some scattered, spotty, afternoon and rain showers across the region. Rain amounts, if any, will only average around a tenth of an inch.

A somewhat better chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms is forecast late Wednesday night through Thursday when a Pacific cold front sags southeast into the area. As of now, it’s not clear how far south the front will track, but conditions ahead of and along the front appear favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The probability for rain will near 30-40 percent. Rain amounts Thursday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Longer-range forecasts call for just a slight chance for rain across the region next Friday. This will be followed by a slightly better chance for rain next weekend and the early part of the following week as an area of low pressure stalls over the southwestern U.S.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:

Temperatures are predicted to trend slightly cooler late next week into next weekend, with highs falling to the mid 80s. A change to more fall-like temperatures are forecast beginning sometime around Sunday the 3^rd, when a Canadian cold front pushes south across the area. High temperatures the week of November 4^th are forecast to be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s. Could fall finally be making an appearance???

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Atlantic basin. Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Update

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (pronounced “tzeh-chin-SHAHN”) continues to shrink and fade as it recedes into the distance in the western sky right after nightfall. It is now too faint to be seen with the unaided eye, but it’s still a fine target for binoculars and telescopes. Look for it in beginning in late twilight well above Venus. The comet will remain visible through late October and into early November.

Courtesy Sky and Telescope

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Dry and quiet weather continues across the region as we start off this last full week of October. While the recent spell of weather has been pleasant, the month has been unusually dry. All locations have reported zero, or next to zero rainfall. This development is highly unusual as October is typically the second or third wettest month of the entire year. If no rain falls between now and the end of the month, records show this will go down in record territory as the driest or one of the very driest Octobers on record.

Monday’s weather maps showed Texas and the south central U.S. remaining under the influence of a stable ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. To the north of the ridge, the storm track is currently positioned between the Pacific Northwest and southeastern Canada. Forecast solutions call for the storm track to remain well to the north of Texas throughout the week, continuing into early next week. As a result, the weather is expected to stay dry across our region for at least another week.

The most noticeable change in the weather this week will likely be slightly warmer temperatures—both in the afternoon and also at night. South and southeasterly breezes developing this afternoon and tonight are forecast to bring slightly more humid air north from the Gulf of Mexico. This layer of moisture will be quite shallow, but it may be just enough to cause the development of some late night and early morning clouds across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. These clouds should burn off by about mid-morning.

Winds throughout the week are expected to remain fairly light, with speeds of just 5-10 mph.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon are forecast to generally be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas and coastal regions, and in the upper 80s across the Hill Country
• Low temperatures throughout the week are forecast to be in the low 60s.

Very little change in the weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. Forecasts do call for a weak cold front to sink south across Texas Saturday into Saturday night. The atmosphere will be too dry for any rain to develop along the front. Temperatures look to cool only a couple of degrees, with highs both days generally in the mid and upper 80s. Lows are forecast to be near 60-62 degrees. The cold front will cause the wind to shift out of the north behind the front, with speeds increasing to a range of 10-15 mph.

Looking out into next week, some notable changes in weather will be possible in the second half of the week. For Monday through Wednesday, more sunny and dry weather is forecast. High temperatures will continue in the mid and upper 80s, with lows in the low and mid-60s.

The stagnant ridge of high pressure which has been parked over our region for most of October is forecast to finally get suppressed to the south as a large trough of low pressure pushes inland across the western U.S. The trough is forecast to track east across the Plains states and help drag a Pacific cold front across Texas sometime just after Halloween. Conditions are finally shaping up to be somewhat favorable for the development of rain just ahead of and along the cold front late next week. Cooler temperatures are predicted behind the cold front, with highs in early November falling close to 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Stay tuned for more details as the modeling gets a better handle on the changing pattern late next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical storm Oscar is the only system of note in Atlantic basin. Oscar formed rather suddenly over the weekend across the southwestern Atlantic/northeastern Caribbean.

As of early Monday afternoon, the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located about 50 miles northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight re-strengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Oscar is forecast to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba Monday afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central

Bahamas on Tuesday. Oscar poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5-7 days.

Have a great week!

Bob

Quiet, pleasant, and fall-like weather is in place as we close out the workweek. A stable ridge of high pressure covering the eastern half of the country is keeping the storm track well up to our north and west, resulting in continued dry weather. Friday’s weather maps did show a trough of low pressure over the western and southwestern U.S. The trough is pulling clouds and a limited amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, northwest across Texas and into the Desert Southwest. These clouds will likely persist across the area through Saturday then diminish Sunday as the trough lifts off to the northeast. Expect a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky Friday afternoon through Saturday. A weak disturbance embedded within this flow off the Gulf may produce a few spotty, light showers across parts of Central Texas Friday afternoon. However, no significant rain is forecast.

Unfortunately, the atmosphere will likely be too dry to support the development of any additional rain.

Southeasterly breezes with gusts to near 25 mph are forecast  Friday afternoon through Saturday. Wind speeds Sunday are forecast to decrease to a range of 10-15 mph. Due to the southeasterly breezes, temperatures are forecast to trend slightly warmer through the weekend.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to generally be in the low 80s
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• Lows Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, and the upper 50s to low 60s across the remainder of the region

Sunny, dry, and warmer weather is forecast next week as the ridge of high pressure to our east shrinks and sets up over the south central U.S. Once again, this will keep the storm track well up to the north of Texas. With a stronger ridge in place, temperatures are forecast to trend warmer, with a return of the 90s.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas area and coastal region, and near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country
• Low temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-60s

Looking out further into next weekend and the last few days of October, the long-range forecast solutions show some minor changes in the weather pattern. The ridge of high pressure across Texas is forecast to weaken, but there are no signs of a strong cold front or significant trigger for rain taking place across Texas. High temperatures are forecast to trend a little lower, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the mid-60s. Some forecast solutions do show a slight chance for rain developing the last couple of days of the month.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather, but neither system poses a threat to the western Gulf of Mexico or the Texas coast.

Across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low have become a little better defined over the past day to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of days.

Across the southwestern Atlantic, to the north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, a trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend for a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph. The system is forecast to track north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected beyond this weekend due to strong upper-level winds developing early next week. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a ten percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Elsewhere, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.

Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS Update

Naked-eye observations of Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS aren’t as easy as they were a few nights ago. The comet is starting to dim as it moves further away from Earth. Nevertheless, observers say the comet is still an easy target for binoculars and smartphones. Look to the western sky starting about 45 minutes after sunset. Find the bright planet Venus and look up a bit higher up in the sky. (see sky map below)

A tip if you use your phone camera, point your phone toward the west and take a 10 second exposure in Night Mode to see the comet.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

We have to get through two more days of unseasonable heat before cooler, fall-like weather will finally make an appearance. Going back to Sunday, afternoon temperatures were nothing short of amazing! Temperatures at many locations along and near the Interstate 35 corridor reached the triple digits. These temperatures weren’t only records for the date, they were also the latest triple digit readings ever recorded so late in the year and some of the warmest readings ever recorded in the month of October!

Monday’s temperatures across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas are not forecast to be quite as hot as what we saw on Sunday. This is due to a weak cold front that is pushing south out of North Texas. As of early Monday afternoon, the front stretched from Lufkin, to Austin, to near Fort Stockton. The cold front is predicted to sink south close to the Interstate 10 corridor this evening, then stall overnight. The front is forecast to quickly lift back to the north as a warm front Tuesday. With so little moisture in place, no clouds or rain are forecast with the front. Monday’s temperature is forecast to be a little cooler for areas behind the front.

• Highs will range from the upper 80s across the northern Hill Country, the mid-90s around the Austin area, to the upper 90s across the coastal plains
• Lows Tuesday morning will included the upper 50s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal plains

Tuesday is shaping up to be a sunny and hot day across the region as the front moves back to the north and southwesterly breezes develop.

• Tuesday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Austin/Central Texas area, and in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal area

The much anticipated cold front, with cool fall-like air, is forecast to push south across the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This front, like the last one, is expected to be dry. This front will be the strongest cold front our region has seen so far this autumn. In the wake of the front, northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph with gust to 25 mph are forecast to develop Tuesday night, continue through Wednesday.

Cool, Canadian air is forecast to spread across the region Wednesday, with the cool air mass expected to remain in place through the upcoming weekend.  A sunny sky is forecast through the period. The change in the temperatures will certainly be noticeable this time around with highs roughly about 15 to 20 degrees less on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday nights are shaping up to be the coolest nights of the week.

• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s near the coast
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s across the Hill Country, near 50-52 degrees across Central Texas, and in low to mid-50s across the coastal plains
• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s
• Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings are forecast to be in the 60s

• High temperatures Wednesday will range from the low 70s across the northern Hill Country, to the upper 70s towards the coast
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 80-82 degrees
• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the low 80s

Changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place late Friday, continuing through the weekend as southerly winds bring a return of milder and more humid air. Meanwhile, a large trough of low pressure is forecast to push into the Desert Southwest Saturday, then lift north across the Rockies Saturday into Sunday. The trough is expected to pull moisture inland off the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Friday. Weak disturbances flowing through the trough and into Texas are expected to cause the development of some scattered light rain showers across the region Saturday through Sunday. The chance for rain both days will only be near 20 percent.

Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch, or less.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for generally dry and warm weather as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s, with lows in the mid and upper 60s.

Tropical Weather Update

There are no active storms across the tropical Atlantic at the current time.

NHC forecasters indicate a broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter part of this week. Some development will be is possible thereafter if the system can stay over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America. Due to the strong cold front pressing south into the Gulf later this week, this potential tropical system poses little to no threat to the Texas coast.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. This system is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. Once again, due to the cold front pressing south into the Gulf this week, this system poses no threat to the western Gulf of Mexico.

Comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas Has Become a Naked-Eye Object

Observers are reporting the comet has brightened up enough such that it is now visible to the naked eye and it is quite a site! The comet will be visible after sunset all of this week and through the upcoming weekend.

The comet pops out of evening twilight about 40 minutes after sunset. To see it, you’ll need a clear view of the western horizon. Find the bright planet Venus and look to the right; Venus and the comet are at about the same altitude. Binoculars are highly recommended to fully enjoy the pinprick brightness of the comet’s head and the flowing structure of its magnificent tail.

The comet will appear a bit higher above the western horizon each evening this week. And note; the comet is moving away from us, and thereby getting a bit fainter each day. So don’t procrastinate.

Bob

The first ten days of October have been anything but fall-like. While nighttime temperatures have been fairly comfortable, afternoon readings have been more like that of late June and early July. The average temperature across the region through October 10^th has been close to 5 degrees above normal and this period ranks among the hottest starts to October on record.

Unfortunately , the unseasonably hot weather is going to continue for a few more days yet. In fact, some of the hottest temperatures of the current hot spell are forecast to occur on Sunday and Monday.  Increasing subsidence from the stubborn heat dome to our west, an area of warm air spreading east out of Mexico, and nearly unlimited sunshine will combine to produce a summer-like pattern. Even though it’s October, be sure to remember heat safety precautions! On the positive side, dry air will remain in place into early next week, keeping relative humidity levels low. This will also allow nighttime temperatures to cool into the 60s.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and in the low 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions
• High temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the upper 90s across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal plains
• Lows Saturday morning through Tuesday morning will generally be in the low and mid-60s

Finally, a break from the ongoing summer-like weather is on the horizon! A strong trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to develop south from eastern Canada into the Tennessee Valley early next week. The trough is forecast to nudge the Southwestern heat dome to the west. At the same time, it will allow cooler air to flow south into the southern U.S. Forecasts show the bulk of the cool air will take aim on the Deep South and the Southeastern U.S., meaning a less dramatic cooldown for Texas. However, a noticeable change can be expected.

The cold front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country and the eastern counties of Central Texas around sunrise Tuesday, then spread to the west and south Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. With so little moisture in place, no rain is forecast with the front. Sunny, cooler, less hot weather looks to follow the cold front beginning Tuesday afternoon, continuing through late next week. Breezy northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph are forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening.

• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the low 90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows next Wednesday through Friday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, and in the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas and the coastal Plains

Next Saturday, milder and more humid air is forecast to return off the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a Pacific cold front pushing southeast out of the Rockies. The front is predicted to push southeast across Texas on Sunday, possibly accompanied by a few rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. As of now, the rain is not shaping up to be all that heavy. This will be followed by a return to a dry weather pattern on Monday the 21^st. Mild temperatures are forecast next weekend into the following week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

• The remnants of Milton have become non-tropical and are currently spreading south of Bermuda
• Tropical Storm Leslie continues across the central tropical Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to track east-northeast across the open Atlantic over the next few days. At the same time, the system is forecast to lose its tropical characteristics and become post-tropical

NHC forecasters are keeping a close watch across the far eastern Atlantic where very recent satellite-derived wind data indicates winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. These strong winds are associated with an area of low pressure centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago. Satellite data shows the circulation is elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Some tropical development will be possible, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today.  On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time.

Elsewhere, conditions are quiet. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 to 7 days.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Update (pronounced “Choo-chin-SHAHN”)

The comet is beginning to enter its week of glory for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere. It has swung around the Sun and will emerge into evening view beginning Friday evening. Unfortunately, the comet will be very low—just above the horizon due west in twilight through the weekend. It will be extremely hard to view with the unaided eye. Binoculars night help you pick it up through the fading afterglow of day. It will likely appear tiny, with its bright inner tail curving to the right. The comet will set while twilight is still fairly bright.

Next week, the comet will be easier to view as it climbs higher in the western sky and sets later. I’ll provide another viewing update Monday.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Dry and summer-like weather continues across the area even though we are now moving into the second week of October. This situation is quite unusual as the month of October is typically one of the wettest and one of the most comfortable months of the year. Although the calendar shows we’re clearly in the season of fall, a summer-like dome of high pressure remains parked over the Southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. The ridge is causing a summer-like weather pattern across Texas. This pattern looks to continue into next week, the finally begin to weaken.

This week’s weather is forecast to be sunny and continued dry as our region remains on the eastern periphery of that ridge of high pressure. A weak cold front currently located across North Texas, is forecast to sink slowly to the south and southwest across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday into Wednesday. The front is expected to  bring a push of drier air to the region mid and late week. This will result in little change in daily high temperatures and slightly cooler nighttime readings.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon through Friday afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the Hill Country, and in the low to mid-90s across Central Texas and the coastal region
• Low temperatures Tuesday through Saturday mornings will include the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas and coastal plains

The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for very similar weather conditions.

Looking ahead to next week, the sunny and dry weather pattern looks to continue. However, the forecast solutions call for the persistent ridge of high pressure to our west to slowly weaken. Forecasts call for a cold front to move across the area next Tuesday, bringing a push of drier and slightly cooler. No rain is expected along the front. High temperatures are forecast to fall to around 88-90 degrees, with lows mostly in the low 60s. There’s a possibility for another cold front sometime late next week which could take temperatures down another 2-3 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico where this morning, Hurricane Milton explosively intensified into a category five hurricane with top winds of 175 mph! Winds in Milton increased  80 knots over the past 24 hours, making for the third fastest intensification on record, behind Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 10-07-24 1:00 pm CDT

As of 1 pm CDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft over the southern Gulf of Mexico, about 700 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida. Milton was moving toward the east near 9 mph. This general motion is expected today followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and  Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk, located over the North Atlantic Ocean.

In the far eastern Atlantic,  a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple days.  Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday. This system is forecast to eventually turn northwest into the open Atlantic.

Bob

It’s early October and so far, autumn-like weather has been a no show.  While nighttime temperatures have been fairly pleasant lately, daytime temperatures have been similar to what we typically see in late August. Unfortunately, this prolonged summer-like pattern doesn’t show signs of going away anytime soon. While readings are expected to trend a little cooler/less hot next week, it looks like it’s going to be a while yet before we see that first strong cold front of fall and some rain.

Dry and quiet weather continues across the region as we close out the workweek. However, one subtle change in the pattern is noted across the western Gulf of Mexico where a weak trough of low pressure is helping to pull an area of enhanced moisture toward the Texas coast. Doppler radar at midday showed an area of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms located just off the Texas coast, with the activity slowly moving to the west. This area of moisture is forecast to slowly spread inland this afternoon and Saturday and is expected to bring a slight chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the coastal plains region—mainly over the area located to the south of Interstate 10. The chance for rain will only be 20 percent, and rain amounts are forecast to total less than a quarter inch. The chance for spotty rain will diminish Sunday as the area of moisture shifts to the south.

For the Central Texas and Hill Country regions, no rain is forecast this afternoon or Saturday as the atmosphere remains too stable. Expect a sunny to mostly sunny sky. Conditions will likely feel a bit more humid Friday afternoon through Sunday as the area of moisture spreads further inland. Little change in the temperature is forecast through Sunday.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the low to mid 90 across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and in the mid-90s across Central Texas
• Low temperatures Saturday through Monday mornings will range from the low and mid-60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s across the coastal plains

For next week, no significant changes are forecast as Texas will continue to remain under the influence of a broad, stable area of high pressure covering the Southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  Forecasts do call for a weak cold front to push southwest across the region Monday. With little moisture in place, no rain is expected with the front. Dry and just slightly cooler conditions look to follow the cold front beginning late Monday, continuing through next Friday. Nighttime temperatures do look to be a touch cooler.

• High temperatures next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to be around 90 degrees across the Hill Country and in the low 90s across Central Texas and the coastal plains
• Low temperatures next Tuesday through Saturday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 50s across the Hill Country, in the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, and in the low 60s across the coastal plains

Looking out a little further, Friday’s long-range forecast solutions show no significant changes in the weather for our region through the week of October 14^th. The large ridge of high pressure over the Southwestern U.S is forecast to finally weaken, but the solutions still show no systems that would bring decent rain or noticeably cooler temperatures to our region. High temperatures are predicted to be  near 88-90 degrees, with lows in the low 60s.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters are continuing to keep a close watch on the western Gulf of Mexico where a trough of low pressure is producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico from this system during the next day or two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. NHC indicates a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to sink into the Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move to the east-northeast ahead of the cold front and will pose little threat to the Texas coast. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the system is forecast to bring locally heavy rain to portions of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring Major Hurricane Kirk located over the central tropical Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Kirk is packing winds of 140 mph and is moving to the northwest. Kirk is forecast to slowly weaken over the weekend as it turns to the north over the open Atlantic. Leslie has maximum winds of 65 mph and is moving to the west-northwest. Leslie is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane over the weekend as it moves to the northwest into the open Atlantic. Leslie is posing no threat of moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday.  Some development of this system will be possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual tropical development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.

While there is support for tropical development among the major computer forecast solutions, this support has been slowly weakening in the number of individual forecast members showing development. Atmospheric conditions in the upper atmosphere are not shaping up to be as favorable as they were last week with Helene. This week, there is quite a bit of dry air across the western Gulf of Mexico, and if this dry air gets pulled into the developing system, it would seriously limit development. The National Hurricane Center has lowered the probability for development from 50 percent, down to 40 percent over the next seven days.

Should a tropical system develop later this week, the majority of the forecast solutions call for the system to track northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico, then turn northeast and move toward Florida. As of now, this potential tropical system poses little threat to Texas.

A dry and quiet weather pattern remains in place across Texas. Our region remains under the influence of a broad, stable ridge of high pressure located across the western and southwestern U.S. The storm track is currently located across southern Canada. Forecasts call for the current dry and stable weather pattern to remain in place through late week and the upcoming weekend. Dry air looks to continue across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas through late week. However, higher moisture levels are predicted to return to the coastal plains region late week and through the upcoming weekend. A weak trough of low pressure tracking east across South Texas late week is predicted to bring a 30-40 percent chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the middle Texas coast Friday into Saturday. Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Elsewhere, no rain is forecast.

No significant change in the temperature is forecast this week.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon through Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the Hill Country, and in the low and mid-90s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast
• Low temperatures Tuesday through Sunday mornings are forecast to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country, in the mid-60s across Central Texas, and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the coastal plains

Looking ahead to next week, slightly cooler temperatures can be expected. Forecasts call for a dry cold front to spread south across the area next Monday. The front is forecast to bring with it dry and slightly cooler air that will be in place throughout the week. High temperatures next week are predicted to be in the upper 80s across the Hill Country and be around 90-92 degrees across the rest of the region. Unfortunately, no rain is expected next week and through the middle of the month as our region remains under the influence of stable high pressure.

Tropical Weather Outlook

In addition to the possible tropical disturbance over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring the progress of Post-Tropical Storm Isaac located northwest of the Azores, Tropical Depression Joyce located over the central tropical Atlantic, and Tropical storm Kirk located over central tropical Atlantic. Both Joyce and Kirk are predicted to track to the northeast and pose no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

NHC forecasters are monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Conditions are quite favorable for this system to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly westward.

Comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas

Astronomers are closely following the progress of a recently discovered comet which just moved around the sun. Now visible in the early morning sky, Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is about to pass between Earth and the sun, shifting from the September morning sky to the October evening sky. The closest approach to Earth will be on October 12th. By then it could be a beautiful naked-eye comet that is as  bright as a first-magnitude star at dusk. in 2007. Stay tuned over the coming days for further updates and where it will be visible in the evening sky.

Bob

There’s a touch of fall in the air thanks to the cold front which moved in late Wednesday. The front brought in much drier and slightly cooler air. The dry air is allowing nighttime temperatures to cool below the summer-like 70s we’ve seen for the past few weeks. Friday’s morning’s temperature cooled into the 50s and 60s across the region. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, mid and upper 50s were observed as far south as La Grange and Bellville. The good news is the cooler nighttime temperatures look to continue for the next several days.

Sunny, dry and quiet weather can be expected over the weekend, continuing through late next week as our region remains under the influence of stable high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. This area of high pressure is predicted to keep storm systems well up to our north over the next week, and this will in a dry forecast. At the surface, the dry and slightly cooler air is forecast to remain in place through the middle of next week, before southerly breezes bring a return of higher humidity levels late week. A few spotty showers will be possible along the middle Texas coast next Friday.

Do note that while nighttime temperatures are expected to be fairly pleasant over the next several days, daytime temperatures are still expected to be quite warm.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are predicted to be near 90 degrees across the Hill Country, and in the low to mid-90s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast
• High temperatures Monday through Friday are forecast to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country, and in the mid-90s across Central Texas and the coastal plains
• Low temperatures Saturday through Monday morning are forecast to be in the upper 50s to 60 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s towards the coast
• Low temperatures Tuesday through Saturday mornings are forecast to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country, and in the mid and upper 60s at most other locations

Looking out to next weekend, dry and warm conditions look to continue. Long-range forecasts do indicate a weak cold front will push south through our area sometime around Monday, October 7^th. The front might bring a few scattered showers to the area, but widespread or significant rain is not expected. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow the cold front, with highs next week generally in the upper 80s to 90 degrees and lows in 50s and 60s.

This forecast could change depending on the development and path of a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. See below for more details.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters will be closely monitoring weather developments across the western Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Most of the computer-forecast solutions call for an area of low pressure to develop over this general area by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the slow development of a potential tropical system sometime late next week. Should a system try to develop, it is forecast to generally move northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico late next week.

No tropical development is forecast through the weekend. However, NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

It’s way too early to get a handle on the eventual path of this potential tropical system. Forecast solutions currently show tracks anywhere from Mexico, all the way east to Florida. Forecasters should begin to get a better handle on this next potential tropical system by early next week.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring Hurricane Isaac, located over the north central Atlantic, and tropical storm Joyce, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Joyce is forecast to turn to the north over the weekend, posing no threat to the Gulf of Mexico. Isaac is forecast to track northeast, to the north of the Azores.

Finally, the National Hurricane Center is also indicating an area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. NHC is currently giving this system odds of 20 percent for development over the next seven days.

Have a great weekend!

Bob