The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced on Tuesday La Niña has faded. Most ENSO indicators have returned to ENSO-neutral levels and climate model outlooks suggest the Pacific will remain at neutral ENSO levels for the next several months.
According to BOM forecasters, tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures have persisted at ENSO-neutral values for several weeks now. And below the surface, much of the tropical Pacific is now at near average water temperatures. Atmospheric indicators are also generally at neutral ENSO levels. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is close to zero, while trade winds are currently being enhanced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Only enhanced cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like signature.
These changes are consistent with climate model outlooks, which have indicated a return to ENSO neutral during the southern hemisphere autumn (northern hemisphere spring), with little indication of a return to La Niña patterns in the coming months. A return to ENSO neutral conditions in autumn is also typical of the life cycle of ENSO events. All models indicate ENSO will remain in ENSO-neutral territory through at least the end of the southern hemisphere winter (northern hemisphere summer).
We will get an update on ENSO from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on April 8th.
Bob
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