The first week of August saw the return of triple digit temperatures to much of the region as the summer heat dome reappeared, bringing with it some of the hottest temperatures so far this summer. Some people refer this current stretch of hot weather as the “dog days of summer”. Whatever you call it, the very hot temperatures unfortunately won’t be going away anytime soon as the heat dome continues to dominate the weather pattern.
Despite the heat dome hanging tough, some slight changes in the weather will be possible across the region Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon as a very weak cold front sags to the south out of North Texas. This front, combined with an area of moisture spreading in from the northeast, will cause a slight chance for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon through Friday evening. The probability for rain at any given location will be 20 percent. Should thunderstorms develop, the main weather threat will be the possibility for strong downburst winds, with gusts to around 50 mph. Some of the storms may also produce a few pockets of moderate to heavy rain. For locations that do happen to see rain, totals are predicted to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. The chance for rain is forecast to diminish shortly after sunset.
Aside from this slight chance for rain, Friday’s weather is looking to be mostly sunny and hot, with high temperatures around 98-101 degrees.
Little change in pattern is forecast for Saturday as the cold front stalls along a line roughly stretching from San Angelo, to Austin, to Houston. There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. And once again, strong downburst winds, with gusts to around 50 mph with be possible from some of the thunderstorms. Rain amounts, if any, should total around a quarter inch, or less. High temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees. The chance for rain will diminish Saturday evening as temperatures cool.
It’ll be back to sunny, very hot, and dry weather Sunday as the weak cold front dissipates and the heat dome grows a bit stronger. In fact, computer forecast solutions call for the heat dome to remain over the south central U.S. all of next week and next weekend. With the heat dome firmly in place, sunny and dry weather looks to continue all of next week. Along with the sunshine, dangerous heat will also persist, with more triple digit temperatures.
- Sunday through Friday, daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 98-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.
Factoring in the relative humidity, daily peak heat index readings are predicted to be in the range of 105 and 110 degrees. These readings will likely reach or exceed the criteria for heat advisories.
Looking out into next weekend and the week of August 19th, the computer forecast solution show few changes in the current hot and dry pattern as the heat dome continues across the area. No significant rain is forecast and high temperatures look to stay close to 100 degrees.
Tropical Weather Outlook
The strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea which had been was forecast to spread into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend dissipated a couple of days ago and no further development is expected.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central tropical Atlantic, well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This activity is associated with a strong tropical wave. According to the Hurricane Center, any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. However, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.
Most of the ensemble forecast solutions call for the system to bend to the north early next week, keeping the system away from the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is way too early to have strong confidence in this prediction.
Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet.
The Perseid Meteor Shower will Peak this Weekend
One of the best meteor showers of the year, the Perseid meteor shower, should reach its peak during the overnight hours of late Sunday night into early Monday morning (Aug. 11-12). So the mornings of August 11 and 12 are probably your best bet to see the show. August 13 might be good as well, but be aware that the Perseids tend to fall off rapidly after their peak. This year, there will be almost no moon, making the late-night sky nice and dark for shooting star spectators and counters. Some Perseids do appear during the evening, but the shower is always better from about midnight until the dawn’s early light.
The shower rises to a peak gradually, then falls off rapidly. And Perseid meteors tend to strengthen in number as late night deepens into the wee hours before dawn. The shower is often best just before dawn.
During those after-midnight hours the shower’s radiant point (the point from which it appears to originate), located between the Perseus constellation and the ‘W’ of Cassiopeia, will be getting progressively higher in the northeast — so meteors should flash across all parts of the sky at a rate of about one every minute or two (as seen by a single observer).
Have a great weekend and stay cool!
Bob
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