Arctic Outbreak Monday Update

Feb 17, 2025 | bobs-blog, one-column-page

Weather Highlights

  • The arctic front will move through the area Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, bringing much colder temperatures and windy conditions.
  • Some light rain is forecast along the front, but the precipitation should end well before the temperature falls below freezing
  • Dangerously cold wind chill readings are forecast Tuesday night through midday Wednesday
  • Lows in the teens and 20s are forecast Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
  • Chilly temperatures look to continue Thursday through Saturday morning
  • Light rain showers are forecast to develop across the region Friday night into Saturday morning
  • There is chance for some light freezing rain across the Hill Country and the Austin/I-35 corridor regions Friday night into Saturday morning

Discussion

Monday morning’s forecast solutions are showing few changes from what has been forecast over the past couple of days. We’re still looking at a dangerously cold period of weather between Tuesday night and Friday morning. The threat for wintery precipitation with the arctic front looks quite low as the precipitation will end before the temperature falls below freezing. Preparations to protect people, pets, plants and pipes should be taken today or Tuesday morning before the arctic air arrives Tuesday night.

In the near term, milder temperatures can be expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday thanks to the return of southerly breezes off the Gulf. Low-level moisture is predicted to spread inland Monday evening and Monday night, causing the development of a cloudy sky. Some patchy drizzle or light rain will be possible for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Tuesday morning. The chance for rain showers will increase to around 30-40 percent across this same area Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts should average below a tenth of an inch.

  • Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Tuesday will be in the mid-60s to low 70s

Frecasts call for the strong arctic front to reach the northern Hill Country just after sunset Tuesday. The front is predicted to quickly spread to the south, moving off the middle Texas coast around midnight. There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers along the cold front when it moves across Central Texas. The chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms with the front will increase to around 60 percent over the area from about La Grange to Matagorda Bay. Rain amounts should average around a tenth of an inch or less. The chance for rain is forecast to end shortly behind the cold front—well in advance of the temperature falling below freezing.

Windy and much colder weather will follow the passage of the cold front Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as a large mass of arctic spreads to the south. Expect northerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 35 mph Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Wind speeds should decrease to around 10-15 mph Wednesday night.

The strong winds and cold temperatures are expected to produce wind chill readings between 6 and 15 degrees across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, and between 15 and 20 degrees for areas east of I-35, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Due to the very low wind chill readings, the National Weather Service has posted a Cold Weather Advisory for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions from midnight Tuesday night through Noon on Wednesday.

A freeze is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday morning. A hard freeze is predicted for the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Another hard freeze is forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Thursday night into Friday morning.

The sky will be sunny to mostly sunny Wednesday through Thursday.

Here’s a recap of expected temperatures:

  • Low temperatures Wednesday morning are predicted to be in the low 20s across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas, and in the mid-30s across the coastal plains
  • High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains
  • Low temperatures Thursday morning are forecast to be between 10 and 15 degrees across the northern Hill Country, between 15 and 20 degrees across the central and southern Hill Country, between 20 and 22 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid to upper 20s coastal region
  • High temperatures Thursday will range from the upper 30s Hill Country, to the mid-40s near the coast
  • Low temperatures Friday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-20s Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s Central Texas, and the low to mid-30s coastal region
  • High temperatures Friday will be in the low 40s
  • Lows Saturday morning will range from around 30 degrees across the Hill Country, to the low 30s across the Austin/I-35 corridor, to the mid-30s across Central Texas, to the upper 30s across the coastal plains

Monday’s forecast solutions continue to indicate a small trough of low pressure will track east across the southern Plains states late Friday into Saturday, pulling clouds and moisture north from the Gulf. Light precipitation is forecast to develop across much of the region Friday evening and Friday night, continuing through about midday Saturday. With the temperature expected to fall below freezing across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor Friday night into Saturday morning, confidence has increased somewhat for the development of some freezing rain across these two area late Friday night into Saturday morning. As of now, only light ice accumulations are predicted. For areas from Bastrop and La Grange, southeast to the coast, the temperature is forecast to remain above freezing Friday night, keeping all of the precipitation liquid.

The chance for rain should diminish Saturday afternoon, with the sky becoming partly cloudy. Dry and milder weather will develop Saturday afternoon, continuing through all of next week.  High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the 50s, warming to around 70 degrees on Sunday. High temperatures next Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows will generally be in the 50s.

Bob