Weather Highlights
- Light to moderate rain showers are forecast to develop Saturday night and continue into Sunday in advance of a cold front
- Totals are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for areas east of Interstate 35. Amounts across the Hill Country should only average around a tenth of an inch
- More widespread and heavier rain is forecast next Wednesday and Thursday when a large trough of low pressure slowly moves across Texas
- Totals late next week are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches across the Hill Country, and between 2 and 3 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Some isolated higher totals will be possible
Discussion
Winter definitely made its presence known this week, with the wintery precipitation and very cold temperatures. Although sunshine returned Wednesday and Thursday, the arctic air has been slow to move out. Friday morning saw another hard freeze across much of the area. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, low temperatures Friday morning were generally between 15 and 20 degrees across the Hill Country, in the upper teens to low 20s across Central Texas, and in the mid-20s to low 30s across the coastal plains region. There were a couple of gauges located in Schleicher and Sutton Counties, to the west of Junction, that recorded a low temperature of 9 degrees!
The artic air will finally begin pushing off to the east Friday afternoon and Friday night as southwesterly breezes develop, pulling milder air into Texas. This appears to be the start of a milder weather pattern that will continue over the weekend and next week. While one last light freeze is forecast Friday night, no additional hard freezes or additional arctic air is expected through late next week. With the arctic air moving out, attention will be turning to the potential for rain this weekend and late next week.
Sunny weather will be in place Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure slides over Texas. The sky looks to remain clear Friday night.
- High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 50s
- Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, with mid and upper 30s towards the coast
- High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be upper 50s to low 60s
Widespread low clouds and moisture are forecast to spread north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Saturday morning in response to a vigorous trough of low pressure that will be pushing south along the coast of California. Saturday’s sky is forecast to remain mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain showers are predicted to develop across the area Saturday evening as the lower atmosphere continues to moisten ahead of a weak Canadian cold front pushing south out of North Texas. Widespread light to moderate rain showers and even a couple of isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop after midnight Saturday night, continuing into Sunday morning. The rain is forecast to taper off from north to south Sunday morning across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday morning as the cold front pushes to the south. Rain showers will likely continue across the coastal plains region through Sunday afternoon and evening as the front slowly moves off the coast.
The highest totals of rain Saturday through Sunday are forecast to occur to the east of Interstate 35, where widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast. Some isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible. Across the Hill Country, most totals should average less than a tenth of an inch.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 am Saturday through 6 am Monday:
- Low temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-50s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Sunday are predicted to be in the low 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, mid to upper 60s towards the coast.
For next week, Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be mostly cloudy and generally dry. An isolated light rain shower or two cannot be ruled out for Tuesday, but no significant rain is expected. Our region will be under the influence of a southwesterly wind flow in the middle and upper atmosphere that will be pulling clouds and moisture across Texas out of the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico.
- High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 50s low 60s
- Low temperatures Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s
- Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s
The chance for rain and thunderstorms will increase dramatically across the region Wednesday through Thursday night when a large trough of low pressure slowly pushes east towards Texas out of the Great Basin. Ahead of the trough, considerable moisture will be drawn north, creating a moist and moderately unstable atmosphere. Waves of low pressure moving over the area out ahead of the main trough are expected to cause the development of showers and thunderstorms beginning late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to become heavier and more widespread Thursday into Thursday night as the main upper trough moves across Texas. Depending on how the situation sets up, areas east of Interstate 35 could see the development of heavy rain on Thursday. Pockets of locally heavy rain will be possible across the rest of the region as well. The rainy period is forecast to diminish Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper trough lifts up to the northeast.
Looking at rain totals from this system, significant amounts will be possible. Totals between Wednesday evening through Friday morning are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches across the Hill Country, and between 2 and 3 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Parts of the coastal region could see totals as high as four inches. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast, but conditions are looking quite wet late next week.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Wednesday through 6 pm Friday:
High temperatures late week into next weekend are expected to be mild, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Lows are forecast to be in the 40s.
Have a great weekend!
Bob
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