An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take shape beginning Wednesday evening and Wednesday night when a rare July cold front pushes south out of North Texas. The cold front, currently located across North Texas, is forecast to move through the northern half of the Hill Country Wednesday evening, then continue south across Central Texas Wednesday night, reaching the middle Texas coast by midday Thursday. The front is forecast to pull up stationary just off the middle Texas coast Thursday afternoon through Friday.
With the heat dome shifting to the Desert Southwest, atmospheric conditions across Texas are looking somewhat favorable for the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms along, and just behind the cold front as it moves to the south.
- For the Hill Country region, high resolution forecasts call for showers to spread into the Hill Country Wednesday evening, with the best chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms occurring late Wednesday evening through about 3 am Thursday. The chance for rain looks to diminish Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
- For the Austin/Central Texas region, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to spread into the area late Wednesday evening, with the best chances for rain occurring between midnight and 9 am Thursday. There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
- For the middle Texas coast, the best chance for rain is forecast to occur Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, with a slight chance for rain continuing Thursday night. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.
Friday through Saturday, there looks to be a 20-30 percent chance for additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area as a couple of weak disturbances move in from the west. Low rain amounts are forecast. Severe storms are not anticipated. Rain amounts through Saturday evening are forecast to total below a half inch, with a couple of isolated totals to around 1 inch possible.
High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be mostly in the mid-90s.
Forecasts call for an increasing chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region beginning Sunday afternoon when another cold front sinks south out of North Texas. Behind the front, a series of low pressure troughs are forecast to track from west to east across the region next Monday through Thursday. With abundant moisture in place, periods of widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecast.
Wednesday’s forecast solutions call for daily totals of 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. Locally heavy downpours will be possible. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50-60 percent.
The Weather Prediction Center’s 7-day rainfall forecast, valid through next Wednesday evening, calls for widespread cumulative totals of between 2 and 3 inches, with isolated totals of 3-5 inches along and east of Interstate 35. Keep in mind, these totals don’t include the rain that is forecast for next Thursday.
The chance for does look to decrease next Friday, continuing into next weekend.
Stay tuned for additional updates on this upcoming wet pattern.
Bob
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