Friday marks the last day of February and the last day of meteorological winter. Looking back, this winter included one of the warmest Decembers on record, followed by one of the coldest Januarys in more than 40 years. Parts of the area saw snow the third week of January, followed by more cold temperatures in February. The one thing our region missed out on over the winter was significant precipitation. Rainfall since December 1st has generally averaged between 2 and 3 inches below normal across the entire region. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, various levels of drought are indicated for the Hill Country along with Central, and South Texas.
Friday started off somewhat chilly, with lows in the 30s across the Hill Country and 40s across Central Texas. However, the temperature will warm nicely Friday afternoon thanks to abundant sunshine and light southerly breezes. High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with upper 70s near the coast. It will be clear and not quite as chilly Friday night. Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A sunny to mostly sunny sky can be expected this weekend as our region remains under a weak ridge of high pressure. A weak Pacific cold front is predicted to slide southwest across the area Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, but the front is not expected to have any significant impact on the weather. Light breezes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night. This will change Sunday when southerly winds will increase to a range of 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph by the afternoon.
- High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 80 degrees
- Low temperatures Sunday morning will generally be in the low 50s
- High temperatures Sunday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 70s
- Lows Monday morning are predicted to upper 50s to low 60s
There will be a slight chance for rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Sunday evening and Sunday night as a small wave of low pressure tracks east across the Red River Valley. With limited moisture in place, only spotty light rain can be expected, with most amounts totaling less than a tenth of an inch.
A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast Monday in the wake of the departing low pressure system. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s.
Another slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted late Monday night through Tuesday morning when a more potent trough of low pressure tracks from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains. Most of the strong atmospheric lift and thunderstorm activity associated with this system is expected to occur across North and Northeast Texas. However, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur across our region late Monday night through Tuesday morning when a cold front associated with the trough pushes through our area. The chance for rain should end from west to east Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as drier and more stable air spreads in behind the cold front. Rain amounts are expected to be low—generally staying under a quarter inch.
Windy conditions are forecast across the region Tuesday in advance of and behind the cold front. Expect wind speeds of 15-25 mph, with gusts to near 40 mph through late afternoon. Wind speeds should decrease to 10-15 mph Tuesday evening. The strong winds may cause blowing dust across the Edwards Plateau and the western Hill Country.
The strong winds and very dry air behind Tuesday’s cold front are expected to cause Critical Fire Weather conditions across the region and especially across the Hill Country Tuesday afternoon. According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, fuels across the Hill Country remain cured and dormant fire season herbaceous fuel loading is above normal. Due to this potential high fire danger, the National Weather Service is anticipating issuing a Red Flag Warning for the Hill Country region Tuesday afternoon.
High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be near 80 degrees.
A dry, Canadian cold front is forecast to push south across the area Wednesday, bringing slightly cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday. Under a sunny sky, expect highs both days in the low 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Dry and warmer weather is predicted for next Friday and next weekend, with highs in the mid and upper 70s, and lows in the 50s.
The outlook through the middle of March shows continued mild temperatures, with no cold air on the horizon.
Have a great weekend!
Bob
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