Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take shape beginning Wednesday evening and Wednesday night when a rare July cold front pushes south out of North Texas. The cold front, currently located across North Texas, is forecast to move through the northern half of the Hill Country Wednesday evening, then continue south across Central Texas Wednesday night, reaching the middle Texas coast by midday Thursday. The front is forecast to pull up stationary just off the middle Texas coast Thursday afternoon through Friday.

With the heat dome shifting to the Desert Southwest, atmospheric conditions across Texas are looking somewhat favorable for the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms along, and just behind the cold front as it moves to the south.

• For the Hill Country region, high resolution forecasts  call for showers to spread into the Hill Country Wednesday evening, with the best chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms occurring late Wednesday evening through about 3 am Thursday. The chance for rain looks to diminish Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
• For the Austin/Central Texas region, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to spread into the area late Wednesday evening, with the best chances for rain occurring between midnight and 9 am Thursday. There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
• For the middle Texas coast, the best chance for rain is forecast to occur Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, with a slight chance for rain continuing Thursday night. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.

Friday through Saturday, there looks to be a 20-30 percent chance for additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area as a couple of weak disturbances move in from the west. Low rain amounts are forecast. Severe storms are not anticipated. Rain amounts through Saturday evening are forecast to total below a half inch, with a couple of isolated totals to around 1 inch possible.

High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be mostly in the mid-90s.

Forecasts call for an increasing chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region beginning Sunday afternoon when another cold front sinks south out of North Texas. Behind the front, a series of low pressure troughs are forecast to track from west to east across the region next Monday through Thursday. With abundant moisture in place, periods of widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecast.

Wednesday’s forecast solutions call for daily totals of 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. Locally heavy downpours will be possible. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50-60 percent.

The Weather Prediction Center’s 7-day rainfall forecast, valid through next Wednesday evening, calls for widespread cumulative totals of between 2 and 3 inches, with isolated totals of 3-5 inches along and east of Interstate 35. Keep in mind, these totals don’t include the rain that is forecast for next Thursday.

The chance for does look to decrease next Friday, continuing into next weekend.

Stay tuned for additional updates on this upcoming wet pattern.

Bob

Dry and quiet weather conditions are in place as we kick off the new week. The area of low pressure over northern Mexico responsible for the clouds and scattered showers across the region over the weekend has shifted to the south, taking the clouds and most of the moisture with it. Meanwhile, the heat dome which has recently been parked over the western U.S. has nudged itself a little further to the east to now cover much of Texas. The heat dome is expected to cause a pattern of generally sunny, dry, and hot weather this afternoon through Wednesday.

The only exception to this will be for areas located to the south of Interstate 10, where lingering moisture and an active sea breeze front will cause a 20 percent chance for scattered afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through Wednesday. Rain amounts should stay below a quarter inch.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon through Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal region.

A trend toward a less stable weather pattern is forecast for Thursday and Friday as the heat dome shifts more to the west and a large trough of low pressure develops from the Great Lakes, south to the southern Plains. This will allow a rare July cold front to push south into Texas late week, increasing the chance for rain. The front is forecast to reach the Central Texas region late Thursday, then stall somewhere close to Interstate 10 Friday into Saturday. Outflow boundaries from storms over North Texas will help to increase the chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms across the region beginning Thursday afternoon, with another chance for rain expected on Friday. The probability for rain both days is forecast to be near 40-50 percent. Rain amounts Thursday through Friday are predicted to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, average less than a half inch across Central Texas and the coastal plains. High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the mid-90s.

The outlook for the weekend calls for just a slight chance for rain across the region on Saturday, followed by a better probability for rain on Sunday as the trough over the southern Plains sharpens, pulling more moisture north from the Gulf. Sunday’s totals are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. Weekend high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts are pointing to an unsettled weather pattern across the region, with continued chances for rain through late week as the trough of low pressure remains stationary over the southern Plains and northern Texas. Elevated chances for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast Monday through Friday. It’s interesting to note both the GFS and ECWMF ensemble solutions call for totals through Friday of 1-2 inches, and possibly higher. There are still many details to be worked out, but it is looking to be wet and unsettled next week.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Next Monday:

Temperatures next week are not predicted to be all that hot, with highs mostly in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic as a large area of Saharan dust spreads to the west. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for the next seven days.

Have a good week!

Bob

The atmosphere is forecast to be somewhat unstable as we head into the weekend, thanks to an area of low pressure situated over northern Mexico. For the past couple of days, this same area of low pressure, in combination with a zone of tropical moisture, has led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Texas—mainly along and to the south of Interstate 10. The showers produced spotty totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Friday morning, a persistent area of rain over eastern Fayette and Austin Counties produced an area of 1-2 inch rain totals.

A similar pattern of scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is forecast to continue Friday and Saturday. For these two days, the chance for rain is predicted to expand north to also include all of Central Texas and the eastern half of the Hill Country. The probability for rain will range from 50-60 percent across the coastal plains, to near 30 percent across Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country. For locations that happen to see rain, amounts on both days are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch, with some very isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday will include the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal plains.

For Sunday and the first half of next week, the chance for additional scattered rains across Central Texas and the Hill Country will decrease as the zone of tropical moisture shifts south to the coastal plains. Weather conditions look to be mostly sunny, dry, and hot, with just a few isolated showers possible across the coastal region.

• High temperatures Sunday through Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Looking out into late next week and next weekend, forecasts show a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast as weak cold front sags south into Texas. Forecasts call for the front to make it into North Texas, and possibly as far south as Central Texas. The cold front and associated outflow boundaries will have the potential to cause showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region beginning next Thursday, continuing into next weekend. Unfortunately, there’s currently too much uncertainty in the strengthen and position of the front to get a handle on how much rain the front may bring to our area. Cold fronts in July, even weak ones, are not all that common and come with lots of uncertainties.

High temperatures late week and next weekend are forecast to generally stay near 98-100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

In the wake of Hurricane Beryl, conditions have turned very quiet across the tropical Atlantic.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the North and South Carolina coastlines. Strong upper-level winds over the area will limit any development of this system before it moves inland over South Carolina and North Carolina Friday evening. However, the disturbance could contribute to areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through Friday night. NHC forecasters are giving this system a zero percent chance for development over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for the next seven days.

Have a great weekend and stay cool!

Bob

Hurricane Beryl moved inland around 4 am Monday morning near Matagorda with peak winds of 80 mph. The hurricane produced very strong winds and heavy rain across Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties overnight and into the morning hours. Wind gusts of 60-75 mph were reported across all three counties. A naval observing station at Matagorda City reported a sustained wind of 68 mph, with a gust to 86 mph just before landfall. LCRA’s Hydromet showed widespread totals of 5-6 inches occurring across Wharton and Matagorda Counties.

Once inland, the center of Beryl tracked to the north-northeast through the morning hours, passing just west of Houston. As of 1 pm, Beryl had been downgraded to a tropical storm and was centered about 55 miles north of Houston. A turn to the northeast, with an increase in forward speed is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60 mph, with some higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/08/24 3:00 pm CDT

As Beryl moves away from our region this afternoon, impacts from the storm will diminish. While some additional showers will be possible for the area east of Interstate 35, no heavy rain is expected. Wind speeds should slowly decrease.

Weather Outlook

Although Beryl been the weather headline for the past few days, another big weather headline has been the heat dome moving away from Texas. Late last week, the heat dome shifted from Texas to the West Coast, with another heat dome developing over the Southeastern U.S. Between the two heat domes, a broad trough of low pressure has developed from south central Canada to southern Texas. It’s this trough that allowed a weak cold front to sink south into Texas last Friday. Another cold front is currently situated over Northwest Texas. Forecasts call for the heat dome to remain out west through late week, and this will help to keep our high temperatures below 100 degrees. This weekend, the heat dome is predicted to shift back to the central and southern Rockies.

For Monday afternoon, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as the circulation around the backside of Beryl brings tropical moisture westward. Rain amounts, if any, should average well below a quarter inch.

For Tuesday through Thursday, a mostly sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Daily high temperatures look to be in the mid-90s. For the coastal region, there will be 30-40 percent chance for scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to lingering tropical moisture and an active sea breeze. Rain amounts through Thursday are forecast to generally average around a half inch. Daily High temperatures are predicted to be around 90-92 degrees.

Friday through Sunday, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Central Texas and coastal regions due to an increase in tropical moisture spreading inland from the Gulf. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch. High temperatures should be in the mid and upper 90s across Central Texas, and the low 90s across the coastal areas. For the Hill Country, expect mostly sunny and dry weather with high temperatures in upper 90s.

The outlook for next week calls for more typical July-like weather, as the heat dome begins to spread east to cover Texas. Sunny and hot conditions are forecast, with daily high temperatures near 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the mid upper 90s across the coastal plains

Following Beryl, weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic are quiet and additional tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next seven days.

Bob

Here’s my Sunday update on Tropical Storm Beryl.

• A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Texas coast, from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass, Texas. This includes Matagorda County
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Fayette, Colorado, and Wharton Counties
• Beryl’s forecast track has shifted a slight amount to the east and is predicted to track inland a bit faster than previous forecasts
• Landfall is expected just before sunrise Monday
• The heaviest rains of 5-10 inches are now predicted to fall a little further to the east—mainly over the area between Matagorda Bay, College Station, and Tyler

Intensity/Track Discussion

Satellite images and data from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Tropical Storm Beryl is becoming better organized. Brownsville Doppler radar has been showing an eyewall, although as of late morning, it was still open on the northwest side.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/07/24 11:50 am CDT

As of 10 am, maximum sustained winds were up to 65 mph. Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. Beryl is predicted to be intensifying right up until landfall early Monday. Forecasts call for maximum sustained winds of 85 mph at the time of landfall.

Beryl is moving northwestward at 10 mph. The storm is forecast to turn north-northwest this afternoon, making landfall along the middle Texas coast, near Matagorda Bay, before sunrise on Monday. NHC’s 10 am updated forecast track has shifted the point of landfall slightly to the east, with the most likely area now expected to be on the eastern side of Matagorda Bay. But do note the cone of uncertainty stretches from Port Aransas, to Freeport.

Following landfall, Beryl’s is forecast to turn northward, and eventually northeastward. An increase in forward speed is also forecast Monday into Tuesday. Beryl’s forecast track calls for the center to move over the Wharton/Columbus/Bellville area Monday morning, then move northeast to the Brenham/College station area Monday afternoon, and the Tyler/Northeast Texas area Monday night.

Based on the latest track, it appears the greatest wind and rain impacts from Beryl will occur on Monday over the area generally along and to the east of Highway 77, from Victoria, to La Grange, to Rockdale. Minimal impacts are expected across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor.

• A Hurricane warning has been posted for Matagorda County through Monday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion
• A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Wharton, Colorado and Fayette Counties through Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area

The first rain band associated with Beryl pushed inland along the coast earlier this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase across the middle Texas coast beginning late this afternoon and continue overnight and through Monday. Strong winds will begin to spread inland Sunday night and continue through Monday morning.

• For Matagorda County, expect wind speeds to increase to 55-65 mph, with gusts to 100 mph after midnight Sunday night. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 60-70 mph, with gusts to 95 mph. Wind speeds should decrease in the afternoon.
• For Wharton County,  expect wind speeds of 30-40 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph after midnight. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 45-55 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph Monday morning. Wind speeds decrease in the afternoon
• For Colorado County, expect wind speeds of 20-30 mph, with gust to 55 mph after midnight. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 25-35 mph, with gusts to 70 mph
• For Fayette County, expect wind speeds of 15-25 mph, with gusts to 45 mph after midnight. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 20-30 mph, with gust to 55 mph.
• For the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, expect wind speeds of 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph on Monday

The heaviest rains are predicted to occur along and to the east of the path of Beryl. Updated rainfall forecasts through Tuesday call for totals of 5-10 inches over the area between Matagorda Bay, Bellville, and College Station, with lower totals to the west. Totals will range from 4-5 inches across Fayette County, to between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Austin/Travis County area. Across the Hill Country, most totals are forecast to average less than a half inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Sunday through7 am Wednesday:

Finally, do keep in mind isolated tornadoes will be possible tonight and Monday for areas along and to the east of the path of Beryl. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Matagorda and Wharton Counties under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through early Monday morning, and a Moderate risk for severe thunderstorms during the day on Monday.

Bob

Key Points

• Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for portions of the Texas coast later today.
• Residents along the Texas coast are urged to closely monitor the progress of Beryl and have hurricane plans in place.
• Beryl is forecast to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane close to Brownsville Sunday night.
• The greatest risk for tropical storm force winds will be across the lower and middle Texas coast.
• The NHC forecasts Beryl will continue moving inland Monday, with its path trending more to the north. The remnant tropical storm/tropical depression is forecast to track north into Central Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night.
• Confidence for widespread rain has increased across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast has increased for the early and middle parts of next week, with rain chances possibly continuing through late week.
• Impacts for areas along and east of Interstate 35 may include heavy rain, gusty winds, along with some isolated tornadoes associated with the system’s rain bands.

Discussion

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, just northeast of Tulum at about 6 am CDT Friday. As of early Friday afternoon, Beryl had weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The center was  located about 65 miles east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico.. Continued weakening is expected today as Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. However, slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico Friday night.

For the next 24 hours or so, Beryl will be steered generally west-northwestward across the southern Gulf of Mexico by a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S.  After that, a turn more to the northwest is expected as the storm moves to a break in the heat ridge situated over the central U.S. On this northwestward path, NHC forecasters call for the center of Beryl to reach the western Gulf sometime Sunday afternoon. While the forecast track guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. The majority of the latest forecast model guidance is now favoring a more northward motion compared to previous forecasts. Based on this, the new official forecast has also been nudged a little more to the north, or to the right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the  forecast track could be necessary later today.

Track

Post landfall, Beryl is forecast to move into the weakness between the ridges, turning to the north and possibly north-northeast across south-central and central Texas. According to the latest NHC forecast track, the center of Beryl is forecast to spread across Central Texas as a weakening tropical storm Tuesday into Tuesday night. The key to our region’s weather for the first half of next week will hinge on how much Beryl turns to the right. There’s some chance Beryl’s path could bend even more to the right, depending on the location and magnitude of the break in the ridges. This would then take the center into Southeast, rather than Central Texas.

Do note the entire region is in the track cone of uncertainty for days 4 and 5 (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Forecast/Impacts

Significant impacts for wind, storm surge, and heavy rain will be working northward along the lower to middle Texas coastal regions Sunday night into Monday morning. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to arrive along the lower Texas coast Sunday evening, then spread northward to middle Texas coast Monday morning.  Hurricane conditions will be likely along the lower Texas coast Sunday night into Monday, with the impacts possibly extending as far north as Kingsville and Corpus Christi. Depending on the exact path of Beryl, strong winds to tropical storm strength may be felt across parts of the Austin and Central Texas area Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Rain is forecast to increase across the region Monday as considerable moisture is pulled inland. The heaviest rains are predicted to fall near and east of the storm’s center. As of now, that means areas along and to the east of Intestate 35. Overall, confidence in rain amounts is low, depending on the path of the system once inland. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional rain will likely continue on Thursday.

Do note some isolated tornadoes associated with the system’s rain bands will be possible Tuesday for areas east of I-35 Tuesday.

The Weather Prediction Center’s 7-day rainfall forecast issued midday Friday and valid through 7 pm next Friday,  calls for widespread totals of 3-5 inches for locations along and east of Interstate 35 (including the Austin metro). Totals of 1-2 inches are forecast for the eastern Hill Country, with 0.5-1 inch totals for the western half.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Next Friday:

I urge everyone to keep up with the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service as we move through the weekend.

Bob

As of 4 pm Wednesday, the center of major hurricane Beryl was located across the central Caribbean Sea, roughly 65 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

While westerly wind has affected Beryl on Wednesday, the central core of the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity is still believed to be 140 mph.  So far, the weakening process has been slower than expected. Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the next 24 hours, and the ECMWF model forecasts moderate shear to persist until the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan.  Beryl is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm when it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Wednesday’s intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential for Beryl to re-intensify once it is back over the Gulf of Mexico.

NHC’s intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to regain category 1 hurricane strength on Sunday before the system makes landfall as a tropical storm somewhere along the western Gulf coast Sunday night.

Colorado State University/RAMMB/NOAA 07/03/24 2:40 pm CDT

Forecast Track

A strong mid-level ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. will continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward but at a slower forward speed for the next couple of days or so.  The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6 to 12 hours and to south of the Cayman Islands Wednesday night.  After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday, then emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night.

A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so.  The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica Wednesday evening, and south of the Cayman Islands Wednesday night.  After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico sometime late Friday night. Once over the Gulf, Beryl is forecast to northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United

States.  This forecast cycle, better agreement in the track guidance has taken place, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward.  Based on this and other guidance, the National Hurricane Center official forecast track has shifted the Saturday and Sunday points a little to the southwest of the previous forecast.  However, there is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out.

The official NHC forecast track is showing a potential landfall in northeastern Mexico, just to the south of the Rio Grande river, early Monday morning, with impacts starting along the lower Texas coast Sunday night. But do note the cone of uncertainty on the official track extends all the way north to Matagorda Bay.

Impacts:

It’s still too early yet to know any specific impacts from Beryl. However, increasing swells from Beryl are expected to reach the entire Texas coast by late Saturday and especially into Sunday. This will be ahead of tropical storm force winds arriving along the lower Texas coast Sunday. Increasing tides and squalls will be likely along the middle Texas coast Sunday into Monday

Based on the latest NHC forecast for Beryl to make landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico late Sunday night, clouds, rain, and some wind associated with Beryl can be expected to spread north to the middle Texas coast beginning sometime Sunday afternoon/Sunday night. The clouds and rain are then forecast to spread northwest to cover Central Texas and much of the Hill Country next Monday through Wednesday.

Cumulative totals through Tuesday evening could be as high as 2-4 inches across the coastal plains, and 1-2.5  inches across Central Texas, and around 0.5-1 inches across the Hill Country. As I pointed out Tuesday, please use WPC’s forecast as general guide. These forecasted totals will likely change over the coming days as the models get a better handle on where Beryl will make landfall and go from there.

Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Valid through Next Tuesday at 7 pm:

Stay tuned for further updates as the forecast path and potential impacts become clearer.

Bob

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Beryl has weakened slightly Tuesday afternoon. Earlier Tuesday, Beryl was at category 5 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. This afternoon’s data shows peak sustained winds are down slightly to 155 mph, making Beryl a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

As of 4 pm CDT, the eye of hurricane Beryl was passing south of the Dominican Republic, situated about 420 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Beryl is beginning to encounter some wind shear and weakening is forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. However, Beryl is still forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands Wednesday night and Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter as Beryl encounters stronger wind shear, though Beryl is forecast to remain at hurricane strength through the northwestern Caribbean.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 2:30pm CDT 07/02/2024 

Beryl is being steered to the west-northwest by a strong subtropical ridge currently centered over the southern United States. This west-northwesterly motion is expected to push Beryl across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, bringing the center near Jamaica Wednesday night, and the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night. After that, a significant spread in the track guidance develops when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge that is forecast to develop over the southern United States in the coming days.

The forecast track for late week and this weekend is still quite uncertain. But it is important to point out the super-ensemble mean and the official National Hurricane Center tracks have both shifted northward over the past 24 hours. Beryl is forecast to cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night–the same time the ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S. will be breaking down and moving to the east. The forecast solutions are each handling this breakdown a little differently.

Due to increased wind shear across the western Gulf of Mexico, Beryl is predicted to be weaker, most likely at tropical storm strength, when it crosses the southern Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall sometime late Sunday.

Based on the latest ensemble of model solutions from Tuesday afternoon, an eventual path toward the mouth of the Rio Grande river appears to be a much stronger possibility, compared to recent forecasts. Based on this change, clouds and rain showers associated with the outer circulation of Beryl can be expected to begin spreading northwestward toward South and Central Texas on Sunday, with a chance for rain continuing next Monday and Tuesday.

The Weather Prediction Center’s updated rainfall forecast for next Monday and Tuesday calls for totals of 1-1.25 inches to occur across the middle and upper Texas coast, with lower totals inland across Central Texas and the Hill Country. Please use this forecast as just a guide, due to the uncertainty in Beryl’s projected path and intensity.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Sunday through 7 pm Tuesday:

Again, there’s still much uncertainty with regards to impacts for Texas at this time. Stay tuned for additional updates as the forecast path and intensity of Beryl becomes better resolved by the forecast solutions.

Bob

Weather Outlook for this Week

Very little change in the sunny and hot weather pattern can be expected through Friday. The heat dome will continue to be the biggest influence on region’s weather, despite it’s center shifting away from Texas mid and late week. The sea breeze may generate a few spotty, brief showers across the coastal plains this week, but no significant rain is forecast. Triple-digit high temperatures are forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through Friday. Elevated relative humidity levels look to continue throughout the week, allowing peak heat index values to climb to 107 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and to between 105 and 110 degrees across the coastal plains.

• High temperatures Monday through Friday are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and 95-98 degrees across the coastal region

Beginning this weekend, the heat dome is predicted to shift to the West Coast while a broad trough of low pressure develops across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The trough will help push a weak cold front south into Texas late Friday into Saturday. Forecasts call for the cold front to stall somewhere across West and North Texas late Friday into Saturday, and will provide the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the chance for rain doesn’t look like it will extend into Central Texas, or locations further south. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Rain amounts should average around a quarter inch or less. Elsewhere, no rain is predicted.

With the center of the heat dome out west this weekend and for much of next week, high temperatures are predicted to lower a couple of degrees. Highs across the Hill Country and Central Texas are forecast to generally be in the upper 90s. Coastal areas should see highs in the low and mid-90s. There are some indications much of the region could see a chance for rain develop the second half of next week when another cold front sags south into the region.

Longer-range forecasts call for the heat dome to shift east to the central and southern Rockies beginning late next week, meaning local temperatures should trend hotter once again.

Tropics Update

Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris Sunday evening. The tropical storm moved inland over eastern Mexico, just south of Tuxpan, Monday morning. Clouds and heavy rain associated with Chris are currently spreading east across the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico and are forecast to stay well to the south of Texas over the next couple of days.

Hurricane Beryl

Satellite and radar data suggest Beryl completed an eyewall replacement cycle earlier this morning. Radar images from Barbados now show a solid ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened further.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/01/24 2:10 pm CDT

As of 1 pm CDT, the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located about 65 miles northwest of Grenada. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph, with higher gusts. Beryl is a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Beryl remains an impressive hurricane for this part of the Atlantic basin for this time of year.

Beryl continues to move to the west-northwest at around 20 mph. A slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24-36 hours as the hurricane remains on the south side of strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. The center of Beryl will move away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and pass quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Wednesday.

The latest guidance and ensembles have shown a fairly significant adjustment of the track forecast to the left,( or south) as the hurricane approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late this week as a result of stronger mid level ridging over the southern US and Gulf of Mexico and the potential for Beryl to weaken as it moves toward the western Caribbean Sea. An increase in westerly shear is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week.

There remains a great amount of uncertainty on the ultimate track of Beryl once it crosses the Yucatan as several factors remain in play. The intensity and location of where Beryl enters the southern Gulf, the intensity of the high pressure ridge over the southern US, and the position and intensity of a trough over the central and northern plains. The majority of the forecast model solutions continue to show a path into northern Mexico, although a turn a little further to the north cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned for further updates over the next few days.

Disturbed Weather in the Central Tropical Atlantic

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next two days, and a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Bob