A dry and quiet weather pattern has taken shape across Texas, the southwestern U.S., and northern Mexico thanks to the development of a large ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. The ridge is forecast to slide directly over Texas this weekend and early next week, then shift back west for the second half of next week. Similar to a summertime ridge over our area, the current ridge will keep potential storm systems away from Texas, leading to rain-free weather and unusually warm temperatures for the next week to ten days.
As of late Thursday morning, a weak Pacific cold front was located across central Oklahoma, moving to the south. The front is predicted to reach north central Texas and the Concho valley regions Thursday evening, then push south across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Thursday night. The atmosphere will be too dry for any clouds or rain with the front. However, the front is forecast to bring a 2-4 degree drop in the temperature Friday. Warmer, summer-like temperature are forecast to develop this weekend when the ridge moves overhead and southerly winds return to the area. The weekend will see breezy conditions, with southerly winds of 10-15 mph. Gusts to around 30 mph will be possible on Sunday.
- High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-80s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Friday will be in the low and mid-80s
- High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s
- Highs Sunday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees across the region
- Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
For next week, forecasts call for more summer-like heat on Monday. However, another weak cold front looks to slide south across the area sometime late Monday into early Tuesday, bringing slightly cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday. Once again, the atmosphere will likely be too dry for any rain with the front. Summer-like heat is forecast to return next Thursday and Friday, with temperatures moderating down slightly for next weekend.
- High temperatures Monday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees
- Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be in the mid-80s
- High temperatures next Thursday and Friday are forecast to again be near 90-93 degrees
- Low temperatures next week will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s
Long-range forecasts indicate a slight chance for rain may take shape across the area sometime next weekend or the early part of the following week when a Pacific trough of low pressure tracks to New Mexico and southern Colorado. Unfortunately, no widespread or heavy rain is forecast over the next 10-day period.
Adios La Niña
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday La Niña has ended and the Pacific has returned to a state of ENSO-neutral, where neither La Niña nor El Niño are in place.
For what might follow La Nina, the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast team indicates a probability well above 50% for ENSO-neutral conditions to continue through summer and into October. Beyond early fall, the outlook becomes more uncertain. The forecast team’s prediction for November through January shows a 43% chance for ENSO-neutral conditions persisting, and a 38% chance for a return of La Niña. There’s no clear answer at this point. Unfortunately, the chances for El Niño to return this fall are not very strong, and are under 20%.
Hopefully, the development of ENSO-neutral conditions will lead to a more variable and changeable weather pattern across Texas as we move into May and June.
Bob
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