…A Red Flag Warning has been posted Friday for West Texas, the Hill Country, and Central Texas…
…A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for the entire region Saturday ahead of additional critical fire weather conditions…
Weather Highlights
- Critical fire weather conditions will materialize across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon due to very dry air and strong winds
- A Red Flag Warning has been posted through 9 pm Friday evening
- Critical fire weather conditions are predicted for the entire region Saturday due to continued dry air and strong winds
- A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for Saturday
- Fire weather conditions are forecast to improve Sunday into Monday
- Critical fire weather conditions will return next Wednesday when a Pacific front brings more dry and windy weather
- Sunny and dry weather is forecast Sunday, continuing through late next week
Discussion
Our weather over the next week is forecast to remain rain-free. Passing disturbances, unusually dry air, and strong winds will combine to produce several periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region. Unfortunately, no significant rain is on the weather horizon.
A trough of low pressure lifting northeast of new Mexico Friday afternoon is expected to help pull the dry line from West Texas eastward across the Hill Country and into Central Texas. Forecasts call for the dry line to move into the Interstate 35 corridor early to mid-afternoon Friday, then slowly continue moving to the east late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Behind the dry line, relative humidity values are forecast to fall below 20 percent. Meanwhile, a strong pressure gradient associated with the trough of low pressure is expected to cause surface winds to become quite strong Friday afternoon.
- Wind speeds across the Hill Country are forecast to be in the range of 20-30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph
- Wind speeds across Central Texas are forecast to be in the range of 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph
- Wind speeds across the middle Texas coast are forecast to be in the range of 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph
The strong winds and very dry air will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon. The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through 9 pm Friday evening. Fire weather conditions are not expected to be quite as extreme for areas south of Interstate 10 due to slightly higher relative humidity readings.
Areas of blowing dust will be possible across the Hill County and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has posted a Blowing Dust Advisory for the western and northern Hill country through 8 pm Friday evening. Under a mostly sunny sky, Friday’s temperature is forecast to reach the low and mid-80s across the Hill Country, and the upper 80s to low 90s across the rest of the region.
Friday night, the dry line is forecast to merge with a Pacific cold front and slowly push east across the coastal plains. Wind speeds across the region are forecast to decrease around 10-15 mph late Friday evening through Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the low to mid-60s coastal region.
Interestingly, there will be a slight chance (20 percent chance) for the development of a few isolated thunderstorms after midnight Friday for areas along and east of Interstate 35 when a second trough of low pressure tracks east across northern Texas. This system is forecast to be quite dynamic, but it will be starved for moisture. Nevertheless, it could initiate a couple of isolated thunderstorms over the area. Should any storms happened to develop, they may contain rain and small hail.
Saturday’s weather will be mostly sunny and slightly cooler as the second trough exits to the east. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s. However, very dry air with relative humidity values below 20 percent are forecast to be in the place across the entire region by Saturday afternoon. A moderate to strong pressure gradient behind the departing trough is expected to keep wind speeds strong Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Expect westerly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and occasional gusts to 40 mph. The combination of the very dry air and strong winds is expected to cause critical fire weather conditions. As a result, the NWS has posted a Fire Weather Watch for the entire region for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch is issued when the combination of dry fuels and weather conditions support extreme fire danger. The Fire Weather Watch may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning on Saturday. Fire weather conditions should improve by midnight Saturday night as wind speeds decrease to 5-10 mph.
Fire Danger Outlook from the Texas A&M Forest Service:
Sunny, dry, and less windy weather is forecast Sunday into Monday. High temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 70s Sunday, and in the low and mid-80s Monday. Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s. Lows Tuesday morning look to be in the mid and upper 50s.
Another high fire danger period is forecast to develop Wednesday when a Pacific trough of low pressure moves from the Great Basin to the southern Plains states. This system is expected to push another dry Pacific cold front across the state next Wednesday. Wind speeds are predicted to increase to 15-25 mph Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the region Wednesday as drier air spreads in behind the cold front.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s next Wednesday, cooling into the low 70s Thursday. Highs are predicted to warm back to the low and mid-80s by next weekend.
Forecasts remain quite pessimistic for any significant rain developing through the end of the month.
Bob
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