Weather Highlights
- A strong Canadian cold front will move through the area Saturday evening and Saturday night, bringing a surge of much colder air
- A freeze is forecast for the Hill Country Sunday morning and across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday morning
- A second and much colder surge of arctic air is forecast to spread south across our area Tuesday, bringing significantly colder air that will persist through late week
- The coldest point of the week is expected to be Thursday morning, when temperatures look to reach the mid and upper teens across the Hill Country, the upper teens to low 20s across Central Texas, and the low 20s across the coastal plains
- There will be some potential for light wintery precipitation across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
Discussion
February continues to live up to its reputation for having wild swings in the weather, and this next week will definitely fit that criteria as our region looks to experience two blasts of arctic air. The second blast of air, scheduled to arrive next Tuesday, is expected to be as cold, or possibly colder than the chilly air our region experienced back in late January. In addition, there appears to be some potential for a little wintery precipitation.
Friday Afternoon through Sunday Night
The temperature is expected to be a little warmer Friday and Friday night as light southerly breezes return to Central and South Texas. The sky will remain overcast through Saturday morning thanks to an approaching wave of low pressure pulling Gulf moisture up and over the cool air mass at the surface. The wave will cause a slight chance for a few light rain showers and drizzle for areas along and east of Interstate 35 late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Rain amounts, if any, should total only a few hundredths of an inch.
- High temperatures Friday are forecast to generally reach the mid and upper 50s
- Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A Pacific cold front associated with the wave of low pressure is forecast to spread east across the region Saturday afternoon, bringing with it mild and drier air. A few showers and scattered thunderstorms may accompany the front when it moves over the area to the south of Interstate 10. Clouds will clear with the sky becoming mostly sunny Saturday afternoon. The temperature will become unusually mild, with highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Forecasts call for an arctic cold front to sweep south through the area Saturday evening and Saturday night. The front will bring a surge of much colder air that will likely remain over our area through Sunday night. Northerly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are forecast to develop Saturday night, continuing through Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish Sunday night. The sky will be sunny on Sunday.
A freeze is predicted for the Hill Country Sunday morning and for both the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday morning.
- Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the low 30s across the Hill Country, to the low 40s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Sunday will be in the low and mid-50s
- Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, in the upper 20s to low 30s across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-30s towards the coast
Monday
The arctic air mass is forecast to begin moving off to the east late Sunday night into Monday morning. Light southerly breezes are forecast to develop Monday, bringing warmer air back to the region. Expect a mostly sunny sky on Monday.
- High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s
- Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 40s
- High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s
Arctic Outbreak Expected Tuesday through Friday
Forecast solutions call for a large trough of low pressure to develop across central and eastern Canada early next week that will allow a large mass of arctic air from Siberia and the arctic region to plunge south from Canada and spread south across the Plains states. The leading edge of this arctic air is expected to reach the Red River, between Oklahoma and Texas around sunrise Tuesday morning. The cold air is forecast to spread south through Central Texas by midday, moving off the coast by mid-afternoon Tuesday. The latest analysis indicates the source region of this arctic air mass is quite cold and will not have time to moderate significantly before it reaches Texas. The magnitude of this cold air appears similar to and possibly slightly colder than the arctic air that reached our region the third week of January. Wednesday night into Thursday morning is shaping up to be the coldest period, with hard freezes predicted all the way south to the coast. The arctic air is forecast to remain in place into Friday, then begin moving off to the east.
- Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low 20s across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas, and in the upper 20s to 30 degrees across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to range from the upper 30s west, to the mid-40s near the coast
- Low temperatures Thursday morning will include the mid and upper teens across the Hill Country, the upper teens to low 20s across Central Texas, and the lower 20s across the coastal area
- High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be upper 30s to low 40s
- Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid-20s across Central Texas, and the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 40s
The biggest uncertainty with the upcoming arctic outbreak is the potential for wintery/frozen precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Forecasts call for a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers along the cold front when it moves across the area Tuesday afternoon. After that, the forecast solutions call for a small trough of low pressure to push east out of Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This system is expected to generate a small amount of precipitation when it moves over the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. With the temperature expected to be below freezing at that time, it does appear there will be some potential for a mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow flurries But this is too far out into the future to have much confidence in the forecast at the current time. This part of the forecast should become clearer early next week.
Long-range forecasts call for dry and milder weather developing next weekend, with highs moving back to the 50s and 60s.
Have a good weekend.
Bob
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