It’s shaping up to be another week of active weather across Central and South Texas. But instead of snow and arctic air like we had last week, we’ll likely be dealing with rain, thunderstorms, and milder temperatures this week. The primary driver of this week’s active weather will be a large area of low pressure currently located along the West Coast. Forecasts call for the low pressure area to track to the east over the next couple of days, then turn northeast and move across Northwest Texas on Thursday. This system is expected to bring widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to our region.
In advance of the upper trough, cloudy skies and cool temperatures will hold in place Monday afternoon through Tuesday night as southerly winds in the lower atmosphere override the cool air at the surface. This overrunning pattern is forecast to strengthen Tuesday into Tuesday night. With moisture levels increasing, there will be a slight chance for occasional drizzle and a few spotty light rain across the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. Rain amounts, if any, should only total a few hundredths of an inch.
- High temperatures Monday will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to around 60 degrees near the coast
- Lows temperatures Tuesday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 40s
- High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s
- Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the low and mid-50s
The chance for rain showers will increase on Wednesday as the area of low pressure reaches Arizona. The approaching low is expected to pull significant moisture and milder air north from the Gulf of Mexico. With atmospheric lift increasing, the chance for rain across the region is forecast to be near 60 percent.
Scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop across much of the Hill Country, extending east to the Interstate 35 corridor Wednesday night as the atmosphere grows increasingly unstable out ahead of the area of low pressure. The greatest severe weather threats are predicted to be large hail and damaging downburst winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms Wednesday night. The Austin and Interstate 35 corridor have been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms.
Forecasts call for Wednesday night’s rain and storms over the Hill Country to organize into a large complex of rain and thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions Thursday morning. The complex of rain and storms is then forecast to slowly move to the east-northeast Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Some of the storms, especially along the leading edge of this complex, may be strong to severe. The Strom Prediction Center is highlighting the eastern Hill Country and all of Central Texas for the potential for severe storms on Thursday. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday evening, with the chance for rain ending from west to east after midnight Thursday night.
All of the region is expected to see periods of rain showers and thunderstorms. However, the latest forecast solutions indicate the heaviest rains from the approaching system will occur across North and Northeast Texas, with lower totals expected across Central and South Texas. Rainfall forecasts through Friday call for widespread totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 0.5 and 0.75 inches for locations south of Interstate 10.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Saturday:
It will be milder Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid-60s.
Drier and just slightly cooler air will spread across the area Friday in the wake of a Pacific cold front. As the area of low pressure departs to the northeast, an almost spring-like ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north into Texas out of Mexico. This feature is expected to cause a pattern of sunny and mild weather this coming weekend, continuing through the middle of next week.’
Forecasts Saturday through next Wednesday call for daily high temperatures in the low and middle 70s, with lows generally in the 40s.
The ridge is forecast to breakdown next Wednesday. An approaching area of low pressure will cause a slight chance for rain with slightly cooler temperatures next Thursday and Friday.
No intrusions of arctic air are forecast over the next two week period.
Bob
Social Media