Here’s an update on the cold air currently spreading into the state and the potential for wintery weather late week.
Cold Temperatures
There hasn’t been a significant change in the magnitude of the cold air that is forecast to be in place this week. Freezing temperatures are predicted for our entire region Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. Slightly milder temperatures are forecast for the coastal region into parts of Central Texas late week.
As of late Sunday morning, the strong cold front stretched from Texarkana, to just south of Austin, to near For Stockton. Readings have already fallen to the upper 30s to low 40s over the area between Abilene and Brownwood. The front will continue pushing to the southeast this afternoon and is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast by sunset. No rain is expected along the front when it moves across Central Texas. However, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front over when it moves over the area south of Interstate 10.
Behind the cold front, mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler weather is forecast Sunday afternoon. Temperatures should fall from the 60s into the 50s and 40s. Expect west and northwesterly winds at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph through Sunday night. Much colder air will arrive Sunday night. Due to the strong winds, wind chill readings in the teens to 20 are forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Sunday night. The National Weather Service has posted a Cold Advisory for the Hill County and Central Texas regions from midnight Sunday night through 10 am Monday. (The cold advisory replaces the legacy wind chill advisory that used to be issued). These very cold “feel like” temperatures can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.
A large dome of arctic high pressure is forecast to settle over Texas this week behind the cold front and will keep the cold air in place through late week. Sunny weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday, with the sky becoming cloudy on Wednesday.
- Low temperatures Monday morning will include the mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s to 30 degrees across Central Texas, and low 30s across the coastal plains
- Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas, to the upper 20s across the coastal plains
- Lows Wednesday morning will include the mid-20s across the Country, the upper 20s to 30 degrees across Central Texas, and the lower 30s across the coastal plains
- Lows Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, around 30-32 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-30s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 40s
- High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s across Central Texas, to the low 40s across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Friday are predicted to range from the low 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 40s across the coastal plains
The Potential for Wintery Precipitation Late Week
Forecasts continue to call for a trough of low pressure to develop over southern California and northern Baja, California by mid-week. This system is predicted to move to the east-southeast, then lift northeast and move across Texas Thursday into Friday. The approaching trough is expected to pull warm Gulf air up and over the very cold air at the surface, resulting into the development of overrunning clouds and precipitation across the northern half of the state. While the overall picture does support precipitation, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of warm air that will get pulled north from the Gulf. This is pivotal in determining which areas will see snow and freezing rain and which areas see liquid precipitation. The latest forecasts shows the zone for liquid versus frozen precipitation setting up across Central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with that zone shifting northwest into the Hill Country Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as slightly warmer air tries to spread north from the coast. The period from Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon is beginning to look hazardous for travel across much of the area.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, there will be a 50 percent chance for a wintry mix of rain showers, snow showers and freezing rain across the Austin and Central Texas region as temperatures hover close to freezing. Across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, there will be a 50 percent chance for mainly snow showers. For areas south of Interstate 10, there will be a 70 percent chance for rain showers.
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, mainly rain showers and just a slight chance for a few snow showers are forecast across the Austin and Central Texas area. Across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, forecasts call for a 50 percent chance for a mix of snow showers, rain showers, and freezing rain. There will be a 70 percent chance for rain showers across the coastal plains.
All of the precipitation is forecast to end from west to east Thursday night as the upper trough exits to the northeast. Dry and cold weather is predicted for Friday and next weekend.
Please note the forecast for wintery precipitation late week is still quite uncertain due to the extent of warm air returning off the Gulf. The forecast for should become clearer over the next couple of days as we move into the window of the high resolution models. Stay tuned for additional updates.
Bob
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