This Week’s Weather Highlights
- Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Most rain totals should average less than a quarter inch.
- Christmas Day weather will be mostly sunny with very mild temperatures
- A second chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will occur Thursday into Thursday evening
- A third chance for rain and thunderstorms will take place late Friday into early Saturday
- Unusually mild temperatures are forecast through early next week
Discussion
Clouds, moisture, and warmer temperatures are making a quick return to Central and South Texas as our recent spell of sunny and cool weather has come to an end. A period of unusually mild weather is beginning to take shape and these mild temperatures are predicted to hold in place through the end of the month. An active weather pattern is forecast through Saturday, as three separate troughs of low pressure approach our region bringing three opportunities for at least some rain.
Monday’s weather maps showed a trough of low pressure over the northern Rockies that is diving to the southeast. Forecasts call for the trough to reach the southern Plain states early Tuesday, with the trough tracking southeast across the northern half of Texas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. In advance of the trough, gusty southerly breezes have developed across much of the state, bringing a return of clouds and moisture. Breezy conditions with gusts to near 20/25 mph are forecast to continue through Monday night. Monday’s weather is expected to be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer. The sky looks to become overcast Monday night as moisture levels continue to increase.
- High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid-70s
- Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 50s across the Hill Country, and in the low 60s at most other locations.
For Tuesday (Christmas Eve), the sky is expected to stay mostly cloudy. There will be a slight chance for a few spotty rain showers in the morning. This will be followed by a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening as the trough and its associated cold front move across the area. Interestingly, forecasts indicate atmospheric conditions will be marginally favorable for some of the thunderstorms over Central and Southeast Texas to become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area, including the Austin metro area, under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through 6 am Wednesday. Should severe storms develop, the primary threats are expected to be marginally severe hail and damaging winds.
The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening when a Pacific cold front pushes southeast out of the Hill Country. The front is forecast to stall across the coastal plains region late Tuesday night. The chance for rain is expected to diminish for most areas by midnight Tuesday night. Rain totals from this system are not expected to be very significant, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch.
- Tuesday’s high temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s.
- Lows Christmas morning should range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-50s across Central Texas, to the low 60s near the coast.
Christmas Day Weather is forecast to be mostly sunny and almost spring-like. Expect high temperatures to be in the mid and upper 70s. Lows Thursday will be in the low 60s.
A second trough of low pressure is forecast to push east out of the Desert Southwest and move across Texas Thursday into Thursday evening. This next system is expected to bring a somewhat better coverage or rain showers and thunderstorms than the first system—especially for areas located along and east of Interstate 35.
Clouds and moisture are expected to make a rapid return into the region late Wednesday night. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region Thursday morning, with the best chance for rain occurring Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The probability for rain will be near 70-80 percent. The chance for rain should taper off from west to east after midnight Thursday night. Highs on Thursday will again be in the mid-70s.
Rain amounts from this system are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across Central Texas, and around a half inch across the coastal plains.
The third and final opportunity for rainfall across our region is forecast to develop late Friday afternoon through early Saturday when the third in our series of fast moving troughs of low pressure will zip across the southern Plains. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop, with the most favorable area for rain once again occurring along and east of Interstate 35. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50 percent. The rain should taper off from west to east Saturday morning, with the sky becoming mostly sunny Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s.
Rain amounts Friday afternoon through Saturday evening are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between a quarter and a half inch across the coastal plains.
A sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast to take shape next weekend and continue through late next week. Mild temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 70s are forecast Sunday through next Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure strengthens over our region. Forecasts do call for a Canadian cold front to push south across Texas sometime next Tuesday night that will bring cooler temperatures for New Years Day and late next week. High temperatures are predicted to be in the 60s, with lows mostly in the 40s. (30s across the Hill Country)
NWS Cumulative Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 PM Next Monday, December 30th:
Wishing everyone safe and Very Happy Holidays and a Merry Christmas!
Bob
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