This is my Monday update on the arctic outbreak.
Key Messages:
- The threat for wintery precipitation has come to an end across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas
- Periods of light freezing rain and sleet look to continue over the area between La Grange and Matagorda Bay through mid afternoon Monday
- A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties through 6 pm Monday due to the forecast for light freezing rain and freezing drizzle
- Clouds will clear Monday evening. At the same time, northerly winds look to increase, with occasional gusts to 30 mph
- Dangerously cold wind chill temperatures are forecast Monday night into Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Chill Warning for much of the area through 9 am Tuesday
- Sunny and cold weather will continue Tuesday. The temperature will climb above freezing Wednesday
- Another arctic cold front is predicted to move through the area late Thursday bringing a blast of cold air
- Readings look to fall to the mid-20s Friday night, followed by slightly warmer readings over the weekend
Discussion
Light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow flurries developed across the region Sunday night as atmospheric lift increased ahead of a small trough of low pressure pushing east out of West Texas. Amounts were low—averaging below a tenth of an inch. However, the precipitation was sufficient to cause numerous accidents and travel issues. As of midday Monday, the wintery precipitation had come to an end across the Hill Country most of Central Texas as drier air has spread south out of North Texas. The main hazard through the afternoon hours will be residual icy spots on area roadways leftover from the overnight and morning precipitation. Some improvement is expected across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this afternoon as northerly winds help to dry off the roadways.
Occasional light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, and even a few snow flurries are forecast to continue across Southeast Texas, including the area between La Grange and Matagorda Bay, through late afternoon. Additional wintery precipitation is forecast to average less than tenth of an inch.
The sky is forecast to become mostly sunny across the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas this afternoon. Meanwhile, widespread clouds are predicted to hold across the rest of the area. The temperature is forecast to slowly warm to the mid and upper 20s. Expect northerly breezes at 10-15 mph.
Clear, breezy and cold weather can be expected Monday night. Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 10-13 degrees across the Hill Country, 13-17 degrees across Central Texas, and near 20-22 degrees across the coastal plains. Winds overnight are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. The combination of the strong winds and very cold temperatures is expected to produce dangerously cold wind chill readings, ranging -5 to -8 degrees across the Hill Country, to around 6 to 8 degrees across the coastal plains. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Chill Warning for much of the area valid through 9 am Tuesday.
Tuesday’s weather is shaping up to be sunny, breezy and continued cold. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 30s, with middle 30s coastal areas. Expect a north wind at 10-15 mph.
Tuesday night looks to be another very cold night. Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to generally be in the mid-teens across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper teens across the coastal zone. Wind chill indices are should be a bit higher than those forecast for Monday night.
The arctic air mass is forecast to push east of the area Wednesday as southerly breezes return. Expect a high temperature in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Thursday morning will include the low and mid-30s Hill Country, with upper 30s at most other locations. Thursday looks sunny and warmer, with high temperatures in the mid and upper 60s.
Forecasts call for another blast of arctic air to move through our area late Thursday and Thursday night. No rain is expected with the front, but it will turn colder Thursday night through Friday night. Lows Friday morning will range from the mid and upper 20s out west, to the mid-30s towards the coast. High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
Lows Saturday morning will include the low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid-20s across Central Texas, and the upper 20s to 30 degrees across the coastal plains.
Weekend weather conditions are shaping up to be partly to mostly cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows in the 30s. A slight chance for rain is forecast to develop late Sunday into Sunday night.
Bob
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