That slight reduction in the temperature we saw last week quickly went away over the weekend as the heat dome over Mexico strengthened and expanded eastward. Sunday’s temperature reached into the triple-digits across most of the Hill Country and Central Texas and into the upper 90s across the coastal plains.
Monday’s weather maps showed the heat dome covering Texas, the Southwestern U.S., and much of Mexico. The center of the heat dome was just to our west over Far West Texas and southern New Mexico. Forecasts call for the heat dome, or high pressure ridge, to remain over the same general through late week. Strong subsidence underneath the ridge is expected to cause more sunny and very hot weather throughout the week, with little day-to-day change in the temperature.
High temperatures Monday through Friday are forecast to be between 101 and 105 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 98 and 100 degrees across the coastal plains.
Highest heat index values each day are predicted to be between 105 and 110 degrees.
An item of note is the forecast for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains regions late this afternoon as a wave of low pressure tracks east along the northern periphery of the ridge. Forecasts call for an area of thunderstorms to develop across the South Plains late this afternoon, with the thunderstorms predicted to track southeast across the Big Country and North Texas late this evening and overnight. There is a slight chance some of these thunderstorms could dip south into the northern Hill Country, from around San Angelo, to Brownwood, Lampasas, and Temple. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area and locations to the north under a Marginal Risk, or 1 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through early Tuesday morning. Should storms develop, they’ll have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds.
There’s a very low chance a thunderstorm or two could develop south into the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas area, but the probability looks to be well below 20 percent.
Forecasts call for a second wave of low pressure to move southeast out of the southern Rockies Tuesday. This system may spark the development of more scattered thunderstorms across North and Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. The storms are forecast to remain to the north of the Hill Country and Central Texas.
No additional waves of low pressure are forecast to sink southeast towards Texas Wednesday, continuing through the weekend.
A very slight reduction in temperature will be possible for the upcoming weekend and early next week. At that time, the heat dome is forecast to weaken slightly, with the center shifting west to southern Arizona and southern California. This appears to be just a temporary relocation as the center of the heat dome is predicted to shift back east to New Mexico for the second half of next week and the following weekend. Sunny and very hot weather can be expected.
High temperatures Saturday through next Tuesday are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the upper 90s for the coastal plains.
High temperatures next Wednesday and into the following weekend are forecast to be near 101-105 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the upper 90s to 100 degrees across the coastal plains.
No significant change in the weather or the temperature is currently predicted for the week for July 24th.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here, tropical cyclone development is not expected for the next seven days.
Out across the central Atlantic, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the area several hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and the system could become a subtropical or tropical depression during the next few days while it moves generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting additional development. This system poses no threat to any land areas. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next 7 days.
A Good Week to View the International Space Station
This will be a great week to spot the ISS as it flies over Texas. Views will be possible just before sunrise and an hour or two after sunset each day this week. To find the times and directions to look, visit NASA’s Spot the Station website: https://spotthestation.nasa.gov
Have a good week!
Bob
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