Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

The much anticipated storm system is now moving across Texas, bringing a variety of weather types. 3 pm temperatures were generally in the mid and upper 30s across the Austin and Central Texas region and in the low 40s to mid-50s across the coastal plains. Most Hill Country temperatures were reported as being just above the freezing mark. Doppler weather radar at 3 pm showed a large area of mostly light precipitation spreading east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. There have been some isolated reports of light icing from the Hill Country. But according to TXDOT’s https://drivetexas.org  web page at 3 pm, road conditions across Central Texas, the Hill Country, and West Texas remain in good shape. Light rain covered most of Central Texas, while an area of heavier rain was spreading across the area between La Grange and Columbus.

Forecasts call for widespread precipitation to continue across the area this afternoon and tonight. The temperature is predicted to hold fairly steady—in the mid-30s across the Hill Country and the upper 30s across Central Texas. Across the coastal plains, temperatures are forecast to fall to the upper 30s to low 40s.

For the Hill Country, a light to occasionally moderate rain is forecast to continue this afternoon and tonight. Some occasional snow showers will be possible after midnight, with little to no snow accumulation. Rain totals through 6 am Friday are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch. All of the precipitation should come to an end by daybreak Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory remains posted for the area through 6 am Friday.

For Central Texas, widespread light to moderate rain is forecast to  will continue through Thursday night. The rain should taper off by daybreak Friday. Rain amounts through 6 am Friday are predicted to generally be between 1 and 1.5 inches.

For the middle Texas coast, periods of moderate rain are forecast this afternoon through late Thursday night. The rain should diminish around daybreak Friday. Rain amounts through 6 am Friday are forecast to average between 1 and 2 inches.

A Winter Weather Advisory Continues for the highlighted counties through 6 am Friday:

The outlook for Friday calls for a mostly cloudy sky, dry weather, and cool temperatures as the storm system exits to the northeast. High temperatures will range from upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the low 40s across Central Texas, to mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Quite cold temperatures are forecast Friday night as the sky clears. Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, in the mid 20s across Central Texas, and around 28-30 degrees across the coastal plains.

Sunny and slightly warmer weather is forecast for the weekend.

Bob

Wednesday’s forecast data is showing no major changes from what was talked about on Tuesday. A potent trough of low pressure is forecast to track across Texas, causing widespread precipitation across the area. Today’s forecast data continues to indicate somewhat milder air will return north from the Gulf tonight into Thursday that should keep most of the precipitation across the Austin and Central Texas area as a cold rain. For areas west of Interstate 35 out to West Texas, this slightly milder air looks to limit the chances for significant totals of snow. However, chances for impactful freezing rain and sleet continue.

The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for all of the Hill Country, extending west across the Edwards Plateau to the Concho Valley region, from 6 am Thursday through 6 am Friday.  Austin and Travis County is NOT in this advisory. With cold air in place at the surface, warmer air will move over it leading to a period of light freezing rain and sleet. The best timing for freezing rain will be starting around sunrise Thursday until early afternoon. Up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible–mainly on elevated surfaces including bridges and overpasses. The precipitation should turn to all rain during the afternoon, but there is a chance for some mixed rain, sleet and snow to redevelop Thursday evening when temperatures fall back below freezing. Little to no snow accumulation is forecast. All of the precipitation should end by early Friday morning.

Winter Weather Advisory for the Counties in Purple 6 am Thursday through 6 am Friday:

For the Austin and Central Texas area, widespread rain showers are forecast to develop early Thursday and continue throughout the day and into Thursday night. Temperatures are forecast to hold just above freezing—keeping most all of the precipitation liquid. The precipitation should end mid-morning Friday.

Widespread, beneficial amounts of rain are predicted Thursday into Friday. Wednesday’s forecast calls for totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the Hill County, and between 1 and 2 inches for areas along and east of Interstate 35.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 pm Saturday:

Bob

Here’s an update on this week’s cold weather pattern and the potential for wintery precipitation. There have been some important changes in the outlook.

Tuesday’s forecast solutions are indicating the trough of low pressure that is forecast to move across Texas out Mexico Thursday into Friday will track slower and arrive a bit later than was previously forecast. With the low staying out west longer, it should allow more time for slightly warmer air spread north into Texas before the onset of precipitation. With slightly warmer air in place , the threat area for wintery precipitation has decreased significantly across the Austin/Central Texas area. However, a threat for a mix of wintery precipitation will continue across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau regions late Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Looking at temperatures through Friday:

• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country to around 28-30 degrees across Central Texas, to the low and mid-30s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s
• Low temperatures Thursday morning are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, in the low 30s across Central Texas, and in the upper 30s across the coastal plains
• Temperatures Thursday are forecast to hold fairly steady in the upper 30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but warm close to 50 degrees across the coastal plains
• Lows Friday morning will range from the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s

The sky is forecast to be partly cloudy Tuesday night and become mostly cloudy Wednesday through Wednesday evening. The threat for precipitation is not expected to begin until around midnight Wednesday night.

For the Hill Country (areas west of Interstate 35) and Edward Plateau regions, light overrunning precipitation is forecast to begin around midnight Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning. A mixture of light rain, light freezing rain, and light snow showers is forecast. On Thursday, there will be periods of rain showers with some freezing rain in some of the colder pockets—especially in the morning. However, with the temperature predicted to go above freezing by midday, expect mostly rain. Ice accumulations to around a tenth of an inch will be possible Thursday morning. (See the probability for ice map below) Periods of rain look to continue Thursday evening and Thursday night. Some light snow showers will be possible. All of the precipitation is forecast to diminish by around sunrise Friday.

For the Austin and Central Texas region, scattered light rain showers will develop and spread over the area after midnight and continue into Thursday morning. Some of the coldest locations to the west and northwest of Austin could see some freezing rain Thursday morning, but most locations will likely see just a cold rain throughout the day, continuing into Thursday evening and Thursday night. The chance for rain should diminish around mid-morning Friday.

For the middle Texas coast, widespread rain showers look to develop Thursday morning and continue Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. The chance for rain should diminish by midday Friday.

Forecasted rainfall amounts for Thursday have increased. Totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are now forecast across most of the Hill Country, and totals of 1-2 inches are forecast for areas along and east of Interstate 35.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Friday:

Bob

Here’s an update on this week’s cold weather pattern and the potential for wintery weather.

Arctic high pressure spread south into Texas behind a cold front late Sunday, bringing some of the coldest air since last January. Low temperatures Monday morning were generally in the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, in the upper 20s across Central Texas, and in the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plains. Winds have been gusting up to 25/30 mph since Sunday afternoon and similar gusty conditions are expected to  continue through late Monday afternoon. Wind speeds are forecast to diminish to 5-10 mph Monday night.

A sunny to mostly sky is forecast across the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Forecast solutions continue to call for a trough of low pressure over northern Mexico to track northeast across Texas late Wednesday through Friday morning that will have the potential to bring precipitation and winter weather to much of West, North, and Central Texas (more on that below). Temperatures are predicted to stay cold throughout the week, with slightly milder readings expected Friday through the upcoming weekend.

Updated temperature forecasts show few changes from what has been forecast over the past couple of days:

• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas, and the upper 20s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning are predicted to be in the mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-30s across the coastal plains
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, around 30 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-30s across the coastal region
• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas, and in the mid-30s towards the coast
• Lows Saturday morning will include the upper 20s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-30s across the coastal plains

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the mid-40s
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper 30s
• Highs Thursday are predicted to be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s coastal plains
• High temperatures Friday will range from the low 40s west, to the upper 40s near the coast
• Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the low and mid 50s

The outlook for mid and late week continues to be somewhat uncertainty. However, confidence is increasing for a potentially impactful winter storm to affect much of West and North Texas, and possibly into parts of Central Texas. The upper trough lifting northeast out of Mexico late Wednesday into Thursday is expected to pull warm Gulf air up and over the very cold air at the surface, creating favorable conditions for the development of precipitation across much of the state. As mentioned yesterday, the biggest problem yet to be worked out is how far the warmer air will spread inland, delineating the areas that will see wintery weather and which areas will just see rain. The consensus of the latest forecast solutions continues to show that zone setting up somewhere near the  Balcones Escarpment/Interstate 35 corridor sometime late Wednesday into Thursday morning. There are indications the western Hill Country/Edwards Plateau could see at least 1 inch of snow accumulation from this event.

Based on these solutions, a mix of sleet showers and snow showers is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau regions after midnight Wednesday night. A mixture of sleet showers, snow showers and rain showers is forecast for the Austin and Interstate 35 corridor after midnight. For areas east of Interstate 35, there will be a chance for rain showers developing late Wednesday night.

For Thursday, a mix of freezing rain, rain showers, and snow showers is forecast across the Hill Country Thursday morning. Much of the precipitation should transition to just rain showers Thursday afternoon as the  temperature rises above freezing. For the Austin and I-35 corridor, a mix sleet showers and rain showers is forecast early Thursday morning, with the precipitation becoming all rain late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. A good chance for rain is forecast across the coastal plains.

For Thursday night, a mixture of freezing rain, sleet showers and snow showers is forecast across the Hill Country as temperatures fall back below freezing. For the Austin/I-35 corridor and areas east, a good chance for rain showers looks to continue Thursday night as the temperature holds just above freezing.

The chance for precipitation is forecast to end from west to east late Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper trough exits to the northeast. Forecasts do call for another cold front to push south across the area on Saturday that will reinforce the cool conditions already in place. No rain is forecast along the cold front.

I do want to mention that in addition to the threat for wintery weather, the trough late week looks to being some very beneficial rain to much of the area. Rainfall forecasts through Saturday afternoon call for totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches across the Hill Country, between 0.5 and 1.25 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Saturday:

Bob

Here’s an update on the cold air currently spreading into the state and the potential for wintery weather late week.

Cold Temperatures

There hasn’t been a significant change in the magnitude of the cold air that is forecast to be in place this week. Freezing temperatures are predicted for our entire region Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. Slightly milder temperatures are forecast for the coastal region into parts of Central Texas late week.

As of late Sunday morning, the strong cold front stretched from Texarkana, to just south of Austin, to near For Stockton. Readings have already fallen to the upper 30s to low 40s over the area between Abilene and Brownwood. The front will continue pushing to the southeast this afternoon and is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast by sunset. No rain is expected along the front when it moves across Central Texas. However, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front over when it moves over the area south of Interstate 10.

Behind the cold front, mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler weather is forecast Sunday afternoon. Temperatures should fall from the 60s into the 50s and 40s. Expect west and northwesterly winds at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph through Sunday night. Much colder air will arrive Sunday night. Due to the strong winds, wind chill readings in the teens to 20 are forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Sunday night. The National Weather Service has posted a Cold Advisory for the Hill County and Central Texas regions from midnight Sunday night through 10 am Monday. (The cold advisory replaces the legacy wind chill advisory that used to be issued). These very cold “feel like” temperatures can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.

A large dome of arctic high pressure is forecast to settle over Texas this week behind the cold front and will keep the cold air in place through late week. Sunny weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday, with the sky becoming cloudy on Wednesday.

• Low temperatures Monday morning will include the mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s to 30 degrees across Central Texas, and low 30s across the coastal plains
• Lows Tuesday morning  will range from the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas, to the upper 20s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning will include the mid-20s across the Country, the upper 20s to 30 degrees across Central Texas, and the lower 30s across the coastal plains
• Lows Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, around 30-32 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-30s across the coastal plains

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 40s
• High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s across Central Texas, to the low 40s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Friday are predicted to range from the low 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 40s across the coastal plains

The Potential for Wintery Precipitation Late Week

Forecasts continue to call for a trough of low pressure to develop over southern California and northern Baja, California by mid-week. This system is predicted to move to the east-southeast, then lift northeast and move across Texas Thursday into Friday. The approaching trough is expected to pull warm Gulf air up and over the very cold air at the surface, resulting into the development of overrunning clouds and precipitation across the northern half of the state. While the overall picture does support precipitation, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of warm air that will get pulled north from the Gulf. This is pivotal in determining which areas will see snow and freezing rain and which areas see liquid precipitation. The latest forecasts shows the zone for liquid versus frozen precipitation setting up across Central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with that zone shifting northwest into the Hill Country Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as slightly warmer air tries to spread north from the coast. The period from Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon is beginning to look hazardous for travel across much of the area.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, there will be a 50 percent chance for a wintry mix of rain showers, snow showers and freezing rain across the Austin and Central Texas region as temperatures hover close to freezing. Across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, there will be a 50 percent chance for mainly snow showers. For areas south of Interstate 10, there will be a 70 percent chance for rain showers.

Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, mainly rain showers and just a slight chance for a few snow showers are forecast across the Austin and Central Texas area. Across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, forecasts call for a 50 percent chance for a mix of snow showers, rain showers, and freezing rain. There will be a 70 percent chance for rain showers across the coastal plains.

All of the precipitation is forecast to end from west to east Thursday night as the upper trough exits to the northeast. Dry and cold weather is predicted for Friday and next weekend.

Please note the forecast for wintery precipitation late week is still quite uncertain due to the extent of warm air returning off the Gulf. The forecast for should become clearer over the next couple of days as we move into the window of the high resolution models. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Bob

Here’s an update on a strong cold front that will bring a prolonged period of very cold temperatures to our region next week. Cold is coming, but this will not be the magnitude of cold we saw in February 2021. However, it will be cold enough such that everyone should still make the typical cold weather/freezing temperature preparations.

Key Weather Messages:

• A strong cold front will blast through the area Sunday, bringing a prolonged period of very cold temperatures
• The coldest air so far this season is expected through mid week, with  overnight lows in the 20s predicted for Monday through Thursday mornings
• There is a low probability for some wintery precipitation across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions next Wednesday into Thursday

Weather Discussion

From Friday afternoon through Saturday night, our region will be seeing a mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy sky, dry weather, and warming temperatures.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be between 65 and 70 degrees
• Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the mid-50s
• High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 70s west, to the upper 70s near the coast
• Lows Sunday morning will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s

Changes in the weather will begin to take place Sunday when a strong cold front will push south out of North Texas Sunday afternoon. Forecasts call for the cold front to reach the Austin area sometime around midday into the early afternoon, moving off the middle Texas coast around sunset. In advance of cold front, readings are forecast to be in the 60s, with mid to upper 70s towards the coast. No rain is forecast along the front when it moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. However, an area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop when the front reaches the area south of Interstate 10. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong in nature.

Windy and much cooler weather will develop behind the cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures look to fall into the 50s Sunday afternoon and into the 40s and 30s Sunday evening and Sunday night. Wind chill temperatures are predicted to be in the 20s Sunday night. Expect northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The sky is forecast to be clear Sunday night. A freeze is forecast across all of the region by early Monday morning.

• Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid-20s across the Hill Country, near 28-30 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low 30s across the coastal plains.

Cold temperatures are forecast to be in place for most of next week as a cold northerly flow continues behind the initial cold front. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast late Thursday into Friday as a weak southerly flow returns off the Gulf. A mostly sunny sky is forecast Monday and Tuesday, followed by a mostly cloudy to overcast sky Wednesday and Thursday.

• Lows Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday  mornings will range from the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, to the upper 20s across Central Texas, to the upper 20s to 30 degrees across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s
• High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be near 40-42 degrees
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the mid-40s
• Lows Friday morning will range from the upper 20s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-30s at most other locations

Cold Weather Preparations

Now through the weekend is time to complete cold weather winterization precautions.

• Protect sensitive vegetation
• Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained)
• Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock

Wintery Precipitation Potential

Long-range ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to suggest an impressive low pressure trough will dip south toward Baja California early Wednesday that will begin to pull clouds and moisture up and over the cold air mass at the surface. This may  result in a pattern of overrunning clouds and possible wintery precipitation across the Hill Country and Central Texas sometime late Wednesday, continuing into Thursday.

There is considerable variability amongst the most recent suite of forecast solutions in the timing, strength, and position of the upper trough, and this will have a huge impact on the potential for wintery precipitation across the area. The latest model ensemble solutions are showing a slightly higher potential for some light snow across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas regions sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. However, there are still quite a number of model solutions that point to no precipitation next week, keeping the upper low too far out to our west. Because of the complexities in the various model solutions, I currently have very low confidence in the forecast for any wintery precipitation late next week. More specific details should be hashed out over the next 2-3 days as the models ingest more data.

Bob

Weather Highlights for the Week

• A high fire danger will be in place across the Hill Country Monday afternoon
• A strong cold front will move across the area Monday night, bringing much cooler air for Tuesday and the remainder of the week
• No rain is forecast through Saturday
• Temperatures are predicted to trend much cooler next week

Discussion

After several days with spring-like temperatures, colder air will make a return to Texas this week. Monday looks to be the last really warm day our region is going to see for a while. Much cooler air is forecast to spread south into our area Monday night, with cooler readings remaining in place through late week. While milder temperatures are expected to return this weekend, forecasts call for a strong cold front to move across our area late Sunday, and is expected to bring much colder air for all of next week.

A trough of low pressure moving into the Plains out of the central Rockies on this Monday is causing a strengthening pressure gradient across the state. This is expected to cause the development of strong and gusty winds Monday afternoon—especially across the western half of the state, including the Texas Hill Country. Across the Hill Country, westerly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph are forecast through late afternoon. Across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, southerly winds of 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph are forecast.

Monday’s weather will be sunny and unseasonably warm, thanks to the westerly and southerly winds. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country, the mid-80s across Central Texas, and the low 80s across the coastal plains.

The combination of gusty winds, well-above average temperatures, and low relative humidity readings will cause critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon across West Texas and most of the Texas Hill Country. The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for these areas (the counties highlighted in pink below) through 6 pm.

A Red Flag Warning means conditions are in place that will cause an increased risk of fire danger, and any fires that do develop will spread quickly.

Fire weather conditions are forecast to improve some Monday evening when winds decrease and relative humidity levels increase.

A strong cold front associated with the advancing trough is forecast to push south across Texas Monday afternoon and Monday night. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country Monday evening, move across the Austin area shortly after midnight, then move off the middle Texas coast before daybreak Tuesday. The atmosphere will be too dry for any rain along the front. Behind the front, the wind will shift out of the north with speeds of 10-15 mph.

The cold front will bring much cooler air for Tuesday and the remainder of the week. Sunny and dry weather is forecast through Friday.

• Lows Tuesday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s towards the coast
• High temperatures Tuesday will generally be in the low and mid-60s
• Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-40s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s

Milder temperatures are forecast this weekend as southerly winds return off the Gulf. Expect a mostly sunny sky Saturday, followed by a mostly cloudy sky on Sunday. A few spotty light rain showers will be possible for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as moisture levels increase ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures Saturday are forecast to generally be in the mid-60s. Highs Sunday are forecast to be in the low 70s.

Next Week

A change to a much colder weather pattern is forecast to take place early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds north along the West Coast and a downstream trough develops across the eastern half of the country. This setup will allow very cold Canadian air to spread south across the central and eastern U.S. all of next week. The latest data indicates the coldest air will generally be focused mainly across the eastern and southeastern U.S. However, Texas will still see some very chilly air.

Forecasts call for leading edge of the cold air to spread south across Texas next Sunday night. Breezy and much cooler weather looks to follow on Monday and all of next week as additional surges of cold air look to spread to the south and southeast.

Forecast highs next week are predicted to be around 50-52 degrees. Lows next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, be around 30 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-30s across the coastal plains. Somewhat milder temperatures are forecast next weekend.

Stay tuned for additional updates on next week’s cold outbreak, including the possibility for any precipitation.

Bob

Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from the eastern Hill Country, southeast to the middle Texas coast late this morning trough early Thursday evening. In a setup somewhat similar to what occurred Tuesday evening, forecasters are monitoring a wave of low pressure and its associated Pacific cold front that are currently moving southeast out of Northwest Texas. The trough is beginning to pull warm and moist Gulf air north through the eastern half of Texas, causing the atmosphere to become to become weakly to moderately unstable.

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop and increase in coverage across the region this morning as the atmosphere grows increasingly unstable. However, the best chance for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur just ahead of and along the Pacific cold front as it tracks to the southeast. High resolution forecasts call for the front to reach the eastern Hill Country late Thursday morning, move across the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor midday into the early afternoon, the eastern half of Central Texas early to mid afternoon, and the coastal region in the late afternoon to early evening. Behind the cold front, the chance for rain will diminish.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern third of Texas, extending west to Austin, under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through Thursday night. The eastern Hill Country has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk. Today’s greatest severe weather threat is expected to be from large hail and damaging winds. However, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Rain amounts through Thursday evening are not expected to be very significant. Totals across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to generally remain under a quarter inch. Slightly higher totals up to three quarters of an inch are forecast for Wharton and Matagorda Counties. Isolated heavier totals will be possible from some of the stronger thunderstorms.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 am Friday:

Sunny and dry weather is forecast across the region Friday. In fact, a dry weather pattern is forecast this weekend, continuing through late next week as a stable ridge of high pressure sets up across the western and southwestern U.S. Mild temperatures are forecast through the weekend and into Monday, with highs in the 70s. A Canadian cold front is predicted to push across the area Monday night that will bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday and most of next week. The temperature is forecast to stay above freezing for most all locations next week.

Bob

This Week’s Weather Highlights

• Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Most rain totals should average less than a quarter inch.
• Christmas Day weather will be mostly sunny with very mild temperatures
• A second chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will occur Thursday into Thursday evening
• A third chance for rain and thunderstorms will take place late Friday into early Saturday
• Unusually mild temperatures are forecast through early next week

Discussion

Clouds, moisture, and warmer temperatures are making a quick return to Central and South Texas as our  recent spell of sunny and cool weather has come to an end. A period of unusually mild weather is beginning to take shape and these mild temperatures are predicted to hold in place through the end of the month. An active weather pattern is forecast through Saturday, as three separate troughs of low pressure approach our region bringing three opportunities for at least some rain.

Monday’s weather maps showed a trough of low pressure over the northern Rockies that is diving to the southeast. Forecasts call for the trough to reach the southern Plain states early Tuesday, with the trough tracking southeast across the northern half of Texas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. In advance of the trough, gusty southerly breezes have developed across much of the state, bringing a return of clouds and moisture. Breezy conditions with gusts to near 20/25 mph are forecast to continue through Monday night. Monday’s weather is expected to be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer. The sky looks to become overcast  Monday night as moisture levels continue to increase.

• High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid-70s
• Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 50s across the Hill Country, and in the low 60s at most other locations.

For Tuesday (Christmas Eve), the sky is expected to stay mostly cloudy. There will be a slight chance for a few spotty rain showers in the morning. This will be followed by a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening as the trough and its associated cold front move across the area. Interestingly, forecasts indicate atmospheric conditions will be marginally favorable for some of the thunderstorms over Central and Southeast Texas to become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area, including the Austin metro area, under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through 6 am Wednesday. Should severe storms develop, the primary threats are expected to be marginally severe hail and damaging winds.

The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening when a Pacific cold front pushes southeast out of the Hill Country. The front is forecast to stall across the coastal plains region late Tuesday night. The chance for rain is expected to diminish for most areas by midnight Tuesday night. Rain totals from this system are not expected to be very significant, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch.

• Tuesday’s high temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s.
• Lows Christmas morning should range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-50s across Central Texas, to the low 60s near the coast.

Christmas Day Weather is forecast to be mostly sunny and almost spring-like. Expect high temperatures to be in the mid and upper 70s. Lows Thursday will be in the low 60s.

A second trough of low pressure is forecast to push east out of the Desert Southwest and move across Texas Thursday into Thursday evening. This next system is expected to bring a somewhat better coverage or rain showers and thunderstorms than the first system—especially for areas located along and east of Interstate 35.

Clouds and moisture are expected to make a rapid return into the region late Wednesday night. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region Thursday morning, with the best chance for rain occurring Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The probability for rain will be near 70-80 percent. The chance for rain should taper off from west to east after midnight Thursday night. Highs on Thursday will again be in the mid-70s.

Rain amounts from this system are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country,  between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across Central Texas, and around a half inch across the coastal plains.

The third and final opportunity for rainfall across our region is forecast to develop late Friday afternoon through early Saturday when the third in our series of fast moving troughs of low pressure will zip across the southern Plains. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop, with the most favorable area for rain once again occurring along and east of Interstate 35. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50 percent. The rain should taper off from west to east Saturday morning, with the sky becoming mostly sunny Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s.

Rain amounts Friday afternoon through Saturday evening are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between a quarter and a half inch across the coastal plains.

A sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast to take shape next weekend and continue through late next week. Mild temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 70s are forecast Sunday through next Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure strengthens over our region. Forecasts do call for a Canadian cold front to push south across Texas sometime next Tuesday night that will bring cooler temperatures for New Years Day and late next week. High temperatures are predicted to be in the 60s, with lows mostly in the 40s. (30s across the Hill Country)

NWS Cumulative Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 PM Next Monday, December 30^th:

Wishing everyone safe and Very Happy Holidays and a Merry Christmas!

Bob