Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

An active period of weather is expected to take place across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions beginning late Monday afternoon, continuing through the overnight hours. There will be a risk for some of the storms to become severe around the Austin area and the eastern counties of Central Texas Monday evening  and Monday night.

A vigorous trough of low pressure located over eastern New Mexico is forecast to lift to the northeast late Monday, and will help to push a Pacific cold front eastward across Texas Monday evening and Monday night. In advance of the cold front, expect a cloudy and humid afternoon, with 40-50 percent chance for isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain amounts should total less than a quarter inch. High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, and gusts to near 30 mph.

Forecasts call for the cold front to reach the Hill Country late Monday afternoon/Monday evening, the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between roughly 11 pm and 2 am, and the coastal area between 6 and 8 am Tuesday. High resolution forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to rapidly develop along the cold front when it reaches the eastern Hill Country late Monday afternoon. The area of rain and thunderstorms is then forecast to slowly spread southeast across Central Texas Monday evening. Atmospheric conditions across North Texas, extending south into Central Texas, appear somewhat favorable for the development of strong to severe storms as the line of storms moves across Central Texas.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Austin area and the eastern half of Central Texas under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through 6 am Tuesday. A Marginal Risk, or a 1 out of 5 risk, is forecast for the remainder of the region. The primary severe weather risk is expected to be strong and damaging straight-line winds. However there will be low probabilities for large hail and isolated tornadoes.

Forecasts call for rain and thunderstorms to persist behind the cold front across the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region through the overnight hours. Some pockets of locally heavy rain will be possible. The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and the Austin area by about daybreak Tuesday. The area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread across the coastal region after midnight Monday night and continue through late morning Tuesday.

A large gradient in rainfall is predicted with Monday’s night’s rain and storms. Forecasts call for totals to average less than a quarter inch across the western and central Hill Country, but total around a half inch across the eastern Hill Country. For Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, expect totals to average close to an inch, with isolated higher totals to near 2 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Tuesday:

Tuesday morning, the rain should taper off from west to east across the eastern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Clouds will clear from west to east Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A mostly clear sky is forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Noticeably cooler temperatures will develop behind the cold front.

• High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper 60s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-70s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning  will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s
• Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid-50s west, to the mid and upper 60s near the coast

Clouds and moisture are forecast to rapidly return off the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night ahead of a new trough of low pressure that will be sinking south out of the southern Rockies. This trough is forecast to reach the Four Corners region late Thursday, then lift northeast to the southern Plains on Friday. As moisture levels increase, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region late beginning late Wednesday night. Periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms look to continue Thursday through Friday as atmospheric lift increases ahead of the trough. The most favorable period for rain is forecast to occur Thursday afternoon into Friday. The chance for rain is forecast to decrease late Friday night into Saturday morning as a Pacific cold front moves across the area, bringing drier and cooler air.

Rain amounts between Wednesday night and Saturday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas.

A mostly sunny to partly cloudy  sky is forecast this weekend, continuing through the first half of next week. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s, rising into the low 80s next Tuesday. Lows are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s.

Longer-range forecasts call for a cold front to push south across our area sometime late next Wednesday or Thursday. There will be a chance for a little rain along the front, but rain amounts should stay below a quarter inch. This front looks to bring in cooler air for late next week, with highs falling to the upper 60s to low 70s, and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The area of disturbed weather that has persisted across the southwestern Caribbean Sea since late last week organized into a Tropical Storm Rafael Monday afternoon.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 11-04-24 2:10 pm CST

As of 4 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. Rafael was  moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later Monday night and is forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late Monday night, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Although the system will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, it poses no threat to the Texas coast. The cold front pushing south into the Gulf late this week should turn the storm toward the central Gulf coast instead of moving further to the west. The National Hurricane Center is predicting this system to make landfall as a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane somewhere across Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama coasts on Friday.

Have a good week!

Bob

As we start off the month November, I’m happy to say we’re entering a weather pattern that looks to bring our region cooler/less hot temperatures along with some chances for rain. The broad ridge of high pressure which has dominated our region’s weather all of October has finally shifted to the east. This change will enable a series of low pressure troughs and cold fronts to spread across Texas over the next week, bringing chances for rain and cooler temperatures.

Friday’s weather will feature a mostly cloudy sky across the region. The cold front which pushed south through the area Thursday is quickly returning north as a warm front, bringing a surge of low-level moisture. Although plenty of moisture will be in place, Friday’s atmosphere is lacking a significant trigger for rain. As a result, there will be just a 20 percent chance for a few passing showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through Friday night. Significant rain is not expected. For locations south of Interstate 10, the chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be near 40 percent Friday afternoon, decreasing to 20 percent Friday night. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch. Friday’s high temperature will range from the upper 70s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-80s across the coastal plains.

This weekend and into Monday, there will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region as a large trough of low pressure sinks south from the northern Rockies into the Desert Southwest. East of the trough, a series of compact disturbances are predicted to track from west to east across the northern half of Texas. These disturbances look to help spark the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 30 percent Saturday through Monday afternoon. Rain amounts through late Monday are predicted to average close to a quarter inch. A few isolated heavier totals will be possible.

Expect a mostly cloudy to partly cloudy sky through the period. Breezy southerly winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts to near 25/30 mph will be also be in place. Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally be in the mid to upper 80s.

The biggest change in the weather and the best chance for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur Monday night into Tuesday morning when the trough out west lifts to the north, allowing a Canadian cold front to sweep south through Texas. Forecasts call for the cold front to reach the northern Hill Country late Monday evening, the Austin area in the hours after midnight, and the coastal region around sunrise on Tuesday.  Forecasts call for a large area rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front when it moves across our region. There will be  a small potential for some of the thunderstorms to be strong to possibly severe mainly—mainly for areas along and to the east of Interstate 35.

The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions before sunrise Tuesday, and across the coastal plains, by mid-morning. Rain amounts from the line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.75 inches across the Hill Country, and between 0.75 and 1.25 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 6 pm Wednesday:

Noticeably cooler air will follow Monday night’s cold front, and this cool air is forecast to remain in place through late next week and next weekend. Expect a mostly sunny sky Tuesday and Wednesday.

• Daily high temperatures Tuesday through Friday will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s across the coastal plains
• Lows will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s and low 60s across the coastal plains

Longer-range forecasts call for a chance for rain to return to the forecast late next week as another trough of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Desert Southwest. Rain amounts from this system are not expected to be very heavy.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. NHC forecasters indicate an area of low pressure is likely to form over this area in a couple of days. Gradual development will be possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to drift generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Ensemble forecast solutions are split on where this system will track. Some solutions show the system heading west to Mexico in another week, while others show the system coming north toward Florida. It’s too early to have much confidence in either solution. With next week’s cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico, there is very little chance this system could move toward Texas and the western Gulf.

NHC forecasters note a separate trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system will be possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.

NHC forecasters are giving this system only a ten percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Time Change Weekend

This is time change weekend. Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this Sunday morning, November 3rd,  at 2 am. At that time, we will move to standard time. Remember to “fall back” and set clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

The dry and summer-like weather pattern we’ve seen through all of October will finally begin to change this week as the heat dome shifts to the east, allowing moisture to spread inland off the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of increasing moisture, a weak cold front, and passing storm system is expected to cause the development of scattered, mainly light rain showers across the area Tuesday through Friday, with the best chance for rain occurring Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Additional chances for rain are forecast this weekend and the first half of next week as a trough of low pressure stalls across northern Mexico. While rain is forecast throughout much of the week, I do want to caution this period of wet weather is not expected to put a significant dent in the drought. Total rain amounts through Monday are forecast to generally average around 1 inch. Temperatures do look to trend down a bit later this week, but highs are forecast to still be in the 80s.

A large trough of low pressure pushing inland across the Pacific Northwest is causing low pressure to develop across  the southern Rockies, which in turn is increasing the pressure gradient across Texas. The stronger gradient is causing brisk southerly breezes and sustained speeds of 10-20 are forecast Monday afternoon through Wednesday night. Gusts to 25 mph are forecast Monday afternoon and Monday night. Occasional gusts to 35 and 40 mph are predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday’s weather is shaping up to be partly cloudy, breezy, and quite warm. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-80s across the Hill Country and between 88 and 90 degrees at most other locations. Due to the increased moisture in place, lows Tuesday morning will be significantly milder, ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s towards the coast.

Tuesday’s weather will start off with widespread low clouds. These clouds will slowly give way to a partly to mostly cloudy sky in the afternoon. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few spotty light rain showers across parts of the Austin/Central Texas area Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts, if any, should average below a tenth of an inch. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows Wednesday morning once again look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday’s weather will feature an increasing chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area in the afternoon and evening as moisture levels increase and pool ahead of a weak cold front sagging south into Texas. The chance for rain will be near 40 percent. Rain amounts Wednesday through Wednesday evening are forecast to average under a quarter inch. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.

The chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms will increase to around 60-70 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning after midnight Wednesday night and continue through Thursday afternoon as a weak Pacific cold front sags to the south, stalling just to the north of Austin. The chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to increase across the coastal plains region Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. The threat for strong to severe storms will be  low as the main forcing for storms is expected to remain well to our north, up around the Red River. The chance for rain should diminish late Thursday afternoon as the parent trough exits to the northeast. Rain amounts through Thursday afternoon are forecast to generally average around a half inch. High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid-80s.

The outlook for Thursday evening’s trick or treat activities calls for just a 20 percent chance for spotty light rain showers around the area. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy sky with temperatures in the 70s.  

Friday, continuing through the weekend, forecasts call for the weather pattern to remain unsettled as a large trough of low pressure begins to settle south along the West Coast. Disturbances flowing around the trough and across Texas are expected to cause a 20-30 percent chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the period. Daily rain amounts are forecast to generally average between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the 60s.

The National Weather Service’s Cumulative Rainfall Valid through 6 pm next Monday:

For next week, forecast solutions indicate the unsettled weather pattern will continue through late week as the trough of low pressure remains parked across the western and southwestern U.S. There will be a chance for light rain each day. Cooler temperatures are forecast beginning sometime around the middle of the week when a Canadian cold front moves through the area. High temperatures late week are forecast to fall to the 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development will be possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Note: this system poses no threat to the western Gulf of Mexico.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Time Change Weekend

This weekend will be time change weekend. Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this Sunday, November 3rd,  at 2 am. At that time, we will move to standard time. Remember to “fall back” and set clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.

Bob

A resilient, late-summer-like weather pattern will continue over the weekend and the first half of next week thanks to a persistent ridge of high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. With the ridge in place, no significant change in the weather is forecast through next Tuesday. A pattern of late night clouds and afternoon sunshine looks to continue.

In the near-term, forecasters are keeping watch on a weak cold front that slipped south into Northwest Texas Thursday night. The front is expected to spread south into the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Friday afternoon into Friday evening, stalling just to the north of Austin and Fredericksburg Friday night. No rain is forecast with the cold front. Areas north of the front are predicted to see slightly cooler temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. The front is forecast to return back to the north on Saturday.

Southerly winds with speeds of 5-10 mph and occasional gusts to 15 mph are predicted Friday afternoon through Monday.

Breezy to somewhat windy conditions are forecast to develop next Tuesday and Wednesday as the pressure gradient strengthens across the state ahead of a storm system across the West. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and occasionally gusts of 30-35 mph. Note: the combination of very warm temperatures, gusty winds, and critically dry vegetation may  be sufficient for fire initiation and fire spread. Continue to avoid activities that could produce fire starts and remember to obey local burn bans and regulations.

• High temperatures Friday through Tuesday are forecast to generally be between  88 and 90 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Hill Country high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-60s across Central Texas, to the upper 60s near the coast
• Lows Sunday morning through Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country, and in the mid and upper 60s at most other locations

Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure to push inland along the coast of California and the Pacific Northwest early next week. The trough is forecast to push east across the Rockies then turn northeast into central and northern Plains the second half of next week. In addition, the trough is forecast to finally push the persistent ridge of high pressure off to the east, finally opening the door for some weather changes across our region.

Moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico beginning next Wednesday.  With a less stable atmosphere in place, there will be a 20 percent chance for some scattered, spotty, afternoon and rain showers across the region. Rain amounts, if any, will only average around a tenth of an inch.

A somewhat better chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms is forecast late Wednesday night through Thursday when a Pacific cold front sags southeast into the area. As of now, it’s not clear how far south the front will track, but conditions ahead of and along the front appear favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The probability for rain will near 30-40 percent. Rain amounts Thursday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Longer-range forecasts call for just a slight chance for rain across the region next Friday. This will be followed by a slightly better chance for rain next weekend and the early part of the following week as an area of low pressure stalls over the southwestern U.S.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:

Temperatures are predicted to trend slightly cooler late next week into next weekend, with highs falling to the mid 80s. A change to more fall-like temperatures are forecast beginning sometime around Sunday the 3^rd, when a Canadian cold front pushes south across the area. High temperatures the week of November 4^th are forecast to be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s. Could fall finally be making an appearance???

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Atlantic basin. Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Update

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (pronounced “tzeh-chin-SHAHN”) continues to shrink and fade as it recedes into the distance in the western sky right after nightfall. It is now too faint to be seen with the unaided eye, but it’s still a fine target for binoculars and telescopes. Look for it in beginning in late twilight well above Venus. The comet will remain visible through late October and into early November.

Courtesy Sky and Telescope

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Dry and quiet weather continues across the region as we start off this last full week of October. While the recent spell of weather has been pleasant, the month has been unusually dry. All locations have reported zero, or next to zero rainfall. This development is highly unusual as October is typically the second or third wettest month of the entire year. If no rain falls between now and the end of the month, records show this will go down in record territory as the driest or one of the very driest Octobers on record.

Monday’s weather maps showed Texas and the south central U.S. remaining under the influence of a stable ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. To the north of the ridge, the storm track is currently positioned between the Pacific Northwest and southeastern Canada. Forecast solutions call for the storm track to remain well to the north of Texas throughout the week, continuing into early next week. As a result, the weather is expected to stay dry across our region for at least another week.

The most noticeable change in the weather this week will likely be slightly warmer temperatures—both in the afternoon and also at night. South and southeasterly breezes developing this afternoon and tonight are forecast to bring slightly more humid air north from the Gulf of Mexico. This layer of moisture will be quite shallow, but it may be just enough to cause the development of some late night and early morning clouds across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. These clouds should burn off by about mid-morning.

Winds throughout the week are expected to remain fairly light, with speeds of just 5-10 mph.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon are forecast to generally be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas and coastal regions, and in the upper 80s across the Hill Country
• Low temperatures throughout the week are forecast to be in the low 60s.

Very little change in the weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. Forecasts do call for a weak cold front to sink south across Texas Saturday into Saturday night. The atmosphere will be too dry for any rain to develop along the front. Temperatures look to cool only a couple of degrees, with highs both days generally in the mid and upper 80s. Lows are forecast to be near 60-62 degrees. The cold front will cause the wind to shift out of the north behind the front, with speeds increasing to a range of 10-15 mph.

Looking out into next week, some notable changes in weather will be possible in the second half of the week. For Monday through Wednesday, more sunny and dry weather is forecast. High temperatures will continue in the mid and upper 80s, with lows in the low and mid-60s.

The stagnant ridge of high pressure which has been parked over our region for most of October is forecast to finally get suppressed to the south as a large trough of low pressure pushes inland across the western U.S. The trough is forecast to track east across the Plains states and help drag a Pacific cold front across Texas sometime just after Halloween. Conditions are finally shaping up to be somewhat favorable for the development of rain just ahead of and along the cold front late next week. Cooler temperatures are predicted behind the cold front, with highs in early November falling close to 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Stay tuned for more details as the modeling gets a better handle on the changing pattern late next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical storm Oscar is the only system of note in Atlantic basin. Oscar formed rather suddenly over the weekend across the southwestern Atlantic/northeastern Caribbean.

As of early Monday afternoon, the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located about 50 miles northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight re-strengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Oscar is forecast to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba Monday afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central

Bahamas on Tuesday. Oscar poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5-7 days.

Have a great week!

Bob

Quiet, pleasant, and fall-like weather is in place as we close out the workweek. A stable ridge of high pressure covering the eastern half of the country is keeping the storm track well up to our north and west, resulting in continued dry weather. Friday’s weather maps did show a trough of low pressure over the western and southwestern U.S. The trough is pulling clouds and a limited amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, northwest across Texas and into the Desert Southwest. These clouds will likely persist across the area through Saturday then diminish Sunday as the trough lifts off to the northeast. Expect a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky Friday afternoon through Saturday. A weak disturbance embedded within this flow off the Gulf may produce a few spotty, light showers across parts of Central Texas Friday afternoon. However, no significant rain is forecast.

Unfortunately, the atmosphere will likely be too dry to support the development of any additional rain.

Southeasterly breezes with gusts to near 25 mph are forecast  Friday afternoon through Saturday. Wind speeds Sunday are forecast to decrease to a range of 10-15 mph. Due to the southeasterly breezes, temperatures are forecast to trend slightly warmer through the weekend.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to generally be in the low 80s
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• Lows Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, and the upper 50s to low 60s across the remainder of the region

Sunny, dry, and warmer weather is forecast next week as the ridge of high pressure to our east shrinks and sets up over the south central U.S. Once again, this will keep the storm track well up to the north of Texas. With a stronger ridge in place, temperatures are forecast to trend warmer, with a return of the 90s.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas area and coastal region, and near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country
• Low temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-60s

Looking out further into next weekend and the last few days of October, the long-range forecast solutions show some minor changes in the weather pattern. The ridge of high pressure across Texas is forecast to weaken, but there are no signs of a strong cold front or significant trigger for rain taking place across Texas. High temperatures are forecast to trend a little lower, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the mid-60s. Some forecast solutions do show a slight chance for rain developing the last couple of days of the month.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather, but neither system poses a threat to the western Gulf of Mexico or the Texas coast.

Across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low have become a little better defined over the past day to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of days.

Across the southwestern Atlantic, to the north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, a trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend for a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph. The system is forecast to track north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected beyond this weekend due to strong upper-level winds developing early next week. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a ten percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Elsewhere, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.

Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS Update

Naked-eye observations of Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS aren’t as easy as they were a few nights ago. The comet is starting to dim as it moves further away from Earth. Nevertheless, observers say the comet is still an easy target for binoculars and smartphones. Look to the western sky starting about 45 minutes after sunset. Find the bright planet Venus and look up a bit higher up in the sky. (see sky map below)

A tip if you use your phone camera, point your phone toward the west and take a 10 second exposure in Night Mode to see the comet.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

We have to get through two more days of unseasonable heat before cooler, fall-like weather will finally make an appearance. Going back to Sunday, afternoon temperatures were nothing short of amazing! Temperatures at many locations along and near the Interstate 35 corridor reached the triple digits. These temperatures weren’t only records for the date, they were also the latest triple digit readings ever recorded so late in the year and some of the warmest readings ever recorded in the month of October!

Monday’s temperatures across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas are not forecast to be quite as hot as what we saw on Sunday. This is due to a weak cold front that is pushing south out of North Texas. As of early Monday afternoon, the front stretched from Lufkin, to Austin, to near Fort Stockton. The cold front is predicted to sink south close to the Interstate 10 corridor this evening, then stall overnight. The front is forecast to quickly lift back to the north as a warm front Tuesday. With so little moisture in place, no clouds or rain are forecast with the front. Monday’s temperature is forecast to be a little cooler for areas behind the front.

• Highs will range from the upper 80s across the northern Hill Country, the mid-90s around the Austin area, to the upper 90s across the coastal plains
• Lows Tuesday morning will included the upper 50s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal plains

Tuesday is shaping up to be a sunny and hot day across the region as the front moves back to the north and southwesterly breezes develop.

• Tuesday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Austin/Central Texas area, and in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal area

The much anticipated cold front, with cool fall-like air, is forecast to push south across the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This front, like the last one, is expected to be dry. This front will be the strongest cold front our region has seen so far this autumn. In the wake of the front, northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph with gust to 25 mph are forecast to develop Tuesday night, continue through Wednesday.

Cool, Canadian air is forecast to spread across the region Wednesday, with the cool air mass expected to remain in place through the upcoming weekend.  A sunny sky is forecast through the period. The change in the temperatures will certainly be noticeable this time around with highs roughly about 15 to 20 degrees less on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday nights are shaping up to be the coolest nights of the week.

• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s near the coast
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s across the Hill Country, near 50-52 degrees across Central Texas, and in low to mid-50s across the coastal plains
• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s
• Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings are forecast to be in the 60s

• High temperatures Wednesday will range from the low 70s across the northern Hill Country, to the upper 70s towards the coast
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 80-82 degrees
• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the low 80s

Changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place late Friday, continuing through the weekend as southerly winds bring a return of milder and more humid air. Meanwhile, a large trough of low pressure is forecast to push into the Desert Southwest Saturday, then lift north across the Rockies Saturday into Sunday. The trough is expected to pull moisture inland off the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Friday. Weak disturbances flowing through the trough and into Texas are expected to cause the development of some scattered light rain showers across the region Saturday through Sunday. The chance for rain both days will only be near 20 percent.

Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch, or less.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for generally dry and warm weather as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s, with lows in the mid and upper 60s.

Tropical Weather Update

There are no active storms across the tropical Atlantic at the current time.

NHC forecasters indicate a broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter part of this week. Some development will be is possible thereafter if the system can stay over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America. Due to the strong cold front pressing south into the Gulf later this week, this potential tropical system poses little to no threat to the Texas coast.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. This system is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. Once again, due to the cold front pressing south into the Gulf this week, this system poses no threat to the western Gulf of Mexico.

Comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas Has Become a Naked-Eye Object

Observers are reporting the comet has brightened up enough such that it is now visible to the naked eye and it is quite a site! The comet will be visible after sunset all of this week and through the upcoming weekend.

The comet pops out of evening twilight about 40 minutes after sunset. To see it, you’ll need a clear view of the western horizon. Find the bright planet Venus and look to the right; Venus and the comet are at about the same altitude. Binoculars are highly recommended to fully enjoy the pinprick brightness of the comet’s head and the flowing structure of its magnificent tail.

The comet will appear a bit higher above the western horizon each evening this week. And note; the comet is moving away from us, and thereby getting a bit fainter each day. So don’t procrastinate.

Bob

The first ten days of October have been anything but fall-like. While nighttime temperatures have been fairly comfortable, afternoon readings have been more like that of late June and early July. The average temperature across the region through October 10^th has been close to 5 degrees above normal and this period ranks among the hottest starts to October on record.

Unfortunately , the unseasonably hot weather is going to continue for a few more days yet. In fact, some of the hottest temperatures of the current hot spell are forecast to occur on Sunday and Monday.  Increasing subsidence from the stubborn heat dome to our west, an area of warm air spreading east out of Mexico, and nearly unlimited sunshine will combine to produce a summer-like pattern. Even though it’s October, be sure to remember heat safety precautions! On the positive side, dry air will remain in place into early next week, keeping relative humidity levels low. This will also allow nighttime temperatures to cool into the 60s.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and in the low 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions
• High temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the upper 90s across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal plains
• Lows Saturday morning through Tuesday morning will generally be in the low and mid-60s

Finally, a break from the ongoing summer-like weather is on the horizon! A strong trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to develop south from eastern Canada into the Tennessee Valley early next week. The trough is forecast to nudge the Southwestern heat dome to the west. At the same time, it will allow cooler air to flow south into the southern U.S. Forecasts show the bulk of the cool air will take aim on the Deep South and the Southeastern U.S., meaning a less dramatic cooldown for Texas. However, a noticeable change can be expected.

The cold front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country and the eastern counties of Central Texas around sunrise Tuesday, then spread to the west and south Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. With so little moisture in place, no rain is forecast with the front. Sunny, cooler, less hot weather looks to follow the cold front beginning Tuesday afternoon, continuing through late next week. Breezy northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph are forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening.

• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the low 90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows next Wednesday through Friday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, and in the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas and the coastal Plains

Next Saturday, milder and more humid air is forecast to return off the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a Pacific cold front pushing southeast out of the Rockies. The front is predicted to push southeast across Texas on Sunday, possibly accompanied by a few rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. As of now, the rain is not shaping up to be all that heavy. This will be followed by a return to a dry weather pattern on Monday the 21^st. Mild temperatures are forecast next weekend into the following week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

• The remnants of Milton have become non-tropical and are currently spreading south of Bermuda
• Tropical Storm Leslie continues across the central tropical Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to track east-northeast across the open Atlantic over the next few days. At the same time, the system is forecast to lose its tropical characteristics and become post-tropical

NHC forecasters are keeping a close watch across the far eastern Atlantic where very recent satellite-derived wind data indicates winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. These strong winds are associated with an area of low pressure centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago. Satellite data shows the circulation is elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Some tropical development will be possible, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today.  On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time.

Elsewhere, conditions are quiet. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 to 7 days.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS Update (pronounced “Choo-chin-SHAHN”)

The comet is beginning to enter its week of glory for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere. It has swung around the Sun and will emerge into evening view beginning Friday evening. Unfortunately, the comet will be very low—just above the horizon due west in twilight through the weekend. It will be extremely hard to view with the unaided eye. Binoculars night help you pick it up through the fading afterglow of day. It will likely appear tiny, with its bright inner tail curving to the right. The comet will set while twilight is still fairly bright.

Next week, the comet will be easier to view as it climbs higher in the western sky and sets later. I’ll provide another viewing update Monday.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Dry and summer-like weather continues across the area even though we are now moving into the second week of October. This situation is quite unusual as the month of October is typically one of the wettest and one of the most comfortable months of the year. Although the calendar shows we’re clearly in the season of fall, a summer-like dome of high pressure remains parked over the Southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. The ridge is causing a summer-like weather pattern across Texas. This pattern looks to continue into next week, the finally begin to weaken.

This week’s weather is forecast to be sunny and continued dry as our region remains on the eastern periphery of that ridge of high pressure. A weak cold front currently located across North Texas, is forecast to sink slowly to the south and southwest across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday into Wednesday. The front is expected to  bring a push of drier air to the region mid and late week. This will result in little change in daily high temperatures and slightly cooler nighttime readings.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon through Friday afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the Hill Country, and in the low to mid-90s across Central Texas and the coastal region
• Low temperatures Tuesday through Saturday mornings will include the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas and coastal plains

The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for very similar weather conditions.

Looking ahead to next week, the sunny and dry weather pattern looks to continue. However, the forecast solutions call for the persistent ridge of high pressure to our west to slowly weaken. Forecasts call for a cold front to move across the area next Tuesday, bringing a push of drier and slightly cooler. No rain is expected along the front. High temperatures are forecast to fall to around 88-90 degrees, with lows mostly in the low 60s. There’s a possibility for another cold front sometime late next week which could take temperatures down another 2-3 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico where this morning, Hurricane Milton explosively intensified into a category five hurricane with top winds of 175 mph! Winds in Milton increased  80 knots over the past 24 hours, making for the third fastest intensification on record, behind Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 10-07-24 1:00 pm CDT

As of 1 pm CDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft over the southern Gulf of Mexico, about 700 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida. Milton was moving toward the east near 9 mph. This general motion is expected today followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and  Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk, located over the North Atlantic Ocean.

In the far eastern Atlantic,  a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple days.  Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday. This system is forecast to eventually turn northwest into the open Atlantic.

Bob