Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A cold front sinking slowly out of North Texas caused the development of widespread, soaking rains across Much of the Hill Country and Central Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain amounts of 1-3 inches were recorded across much of the area. A zone of 3–4-inch totals stretched from northwest of San Antonio to Johnson City, and east through Austin and College Station. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, some totals more than 5 inches were recorded across parts of Blanco and Gillespie Counties.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 10 am Sunday and 10 am Monday:

As of mid-afternoon Monday, the heaviest and most widespread rain had shifted southeast of Central Texas, stretching from around San Antonio to Houston. Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, the heaviest rains are expected to remain across the coastal plains, in the vicinity of the stalled cold front. Across Central Texas and the Hill Country regions, additional light to moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms can be expected Monday night through Tuesday.

For the Hill Country, the probability for rain will only be around 20 percent Monday night, increasing to near 40 percent on Tuesday. Rain amounts through Tuesday evening should average less than a quarter inch.

For the Austin and Central Texas area, the probability for rain Monday night is forecast to be near 40 percent Monday night and near 70 percent on Tuesday.

For the middle Texas coast, the probability for rain Monday night is forecast to be near 70 percent Monday night and near 100 percent on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Periods of heavy rain will be possible.

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor a trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over South Texas. Tropical development is not expected Monday night. However, the system looks like it could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wednesday into Thursday.

The NHC has raised the probability for tropical development up to 40 percent through Wednesday morning and near 50 percent late Wednesday into Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this area of low pressure is expected to pull considerable moisture inland across the coastal plain, resulting in periods of intense rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday which could result in life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. In addition, gusty winds to near 30 mph and coastal flooding will also be possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.

For Wednesday, most of the rain will be confined to the coastal region as the low tracks to the northeast. Partly cloudy and generally dry weather is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. For the coastal region, showers and possible heavy rain looks to continue through the morning hours, then diminish Wednesday afternoon.

Total rain amounts through Wednesday evening are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, be between 0.25 and 1 inch across the Central Texas, and average somewhere between 4 and 7 inches across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Wednesday:

Thursday is shaping up to be a mostly sunny and warm day across the region. There will be a chance for some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal region . High temperatures are predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

A chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast across the region Friday through Saturday as another weak cold front slides south and stalls somewhere across Central Texas. Forecast rain amounts look to be between 1 and 2 inches. Expect warm and humid conditions with daily highs in the low 90s.

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny, dry, and hot weather. Expect daytime high temperatures to be in the mid-90s.

Have a great week!

Bob

Starting off today’s brief with a look at weather conditions in the Bay of Campeche as conditions there may have some influence on Texas weather early next week.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are indicating a broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and the low is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Satellite images show a burst of deep convection has developed, but there are no indications a surface low pressure area developing. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for any development of this system given a good amount of westerly and southwesterly wind shear in place over the southern and western Gulf. NHC forecasters call for the system to move inland over eastern Mexico sometime late Saturday or Sunday.  Given the marginal conditions in place, the probability for tropical development will only be 20 percent over the next few days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/CIRA 06-12/26 12:50 pm CDT

NHC points out the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary. Because of this, the formation area (drawn in yellow on the outlook map above) extends north along the Texas coast. If the system does happen to re-emerge off the Texas coast early next week, conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for tropical development.

Tropical moisture associated with this system is forecast to spread northwest toward the northern Mexican and southern Texas coasts over the weekend, then spread north along the Texas coast early next week. This enhanced area of moisture interacting with a cold front may help to produce heavy rainfall—especially across the coastal region.

Friday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon

Partly cloudy and very summer-like weather is forecast Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as our region remains under a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. High temperatures each day will generally be in the low 90s. Unusually high relative humidity levels will combine with the warm temperatures to produce peak heat index values of 100-105 degrees.

With considerable moisture in place, an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm will be possible on Friday and Saturday. The chance for rain at any given location will be less than 20 percent. Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a quarter inch.

Sunday Afternoon through Wednesday

The weather pattern will be changing late Sunday as the ridge of high pressure over Texas shifts southeast while a broad trough of low pressure develops south through the Plains states. This will allow for a rather strong cold front by mid-June standards to press south into Texas. Forecasts call for the front to reach the Interstate 20 corridor over North Texas Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The front is predicted to sink south across Central Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning and stall somewhere near Interstate 10 Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Forecast guidance suggests a widespread area of rain showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the cold front as it sinks south through the region. The highest probability for rain and storms across Central Texas looks to be Sunday night through Monday. For the coastal region, the highest probability for rain will occur Monday through Tuesday.

Generally speaking, the probability for rain Sunday afternoon will be 40-50 percent, increasing to 60-70 percent Sunday night. The probability for rain Monday and Monday night will be near 80-90 percent, decreasing to 40-50 percent on Tuesday.

The threat for severe storms through this period will be low. Meanwhile, with abundant moisture in place, the threat for moderate to heavy rain and possible localized flash flooding will ramp up late Sunday and continue into early next week. The threat for heavy rain should taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Tuesday morning and across the coastal region Tuesday night.

Rain amounts through Wednesday morning are forecast to generally average between 1 and 3 inches. Should that enhanced area of moisture from the tropical wave spread north up along the Texas coast, isolated total to near 5 inches will be possible—especially across the coastal plains region.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Wednesday:

The outlook for late next week and next weekend is somewhat uncertain. Some of the forecast solutions indicate we could see another surge of tropical moisture into Texas late next week, while others are showing a return of the heat ridge. I’m leaning towards the drier and hot solution at this time, but conditions could change. Stay tuned.

Colorado State/ Phil Klotzbach Updated Hurricane Season Forecast

Thursday, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his forecast team at Colorado State University issued an update to their seasonal hurricane season forecast. The update trimmed the number of storms that had been forecast in their April Outlook. The team now expects 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is down from their earlier prediction of 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes.

The primary reason for the downgrade is the development of El Niño conditions now and through the heart of hurricane season. El Niño tends to strengthen upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, increasing vertical wind shear that can disrupt developing tropical systems. The forecast team also noted that sea surface temperatures in portions of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are running cooler than average, further reducing the odds of an especially active season.

The researchers are also forecasting a below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls in the United States and Caribbean. But they remind residents that preparedness remains essential because one storm can define an entire season for a community in its path.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Following a week with several periods of moderate to heavy rain, the weather pattern is quickly trending drier and warmer as we move into summer. While there will still be a chance for some rain in the forecast over the next ten days, the threat for heavy, soaking rains like last we had week appears low. Summer-like temperatures and high humidity levels can be expected this week and next week.

On this Monday, deep tropical moisture is spreading north into Texas on the western side of a ridge of high pressure centered over the central Gulf. This flow of moisture has resulted in the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Central and South Texas. Additional scattered showers and storms look to continue Monday afternoon into early Monday evening as the temperature warms close to 90 degrees. The highest probability for rain, near 50 percent, is forecast for areas generally along and just east of Interstate 35. Elsewhere, the probability for rain will be near 20-30 percent. Rain amounts should average around a quarter inch or less, with a few isolated totals to near a half inch possible. The rain activity will diminish Monday evening with the loss of heating. High temperatures Monday should range from the upper 80s near the coast, the low 90s across the western Hill Country.

Tuesday through Saturday, expect a pattern of mostly sunny, dry, and seasonably hot and humid weather as the Gulf ridge of high pressure spreads northwest to cover Texas. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out each day for areas near the coast, but elsewhere, the weather should remain dry.

• High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to generally be in the low 90s
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s
• Low temperatures Tuesday through Saturday mornings will include the low 70s across the Hill Country, with mid and upper 70s at most other locations

The combination of the high humidity levels and warm afternoon temperatures will likely yield peak heat index readings near 100-105 degrees through Friday.

Sunday through the middle of next week, forecasts call for the ridge over Texas to shift west while a series of troughs push east across the southern Plains. With a much weaker ridge in place, these troughs are expected to pull considerable moisture north from the Gulf, resulting in the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday, continuing through next Wednesday. As of now, heavy rain is not anticipated during this upcoming period. Daily rain amounts should average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. High temperatures Sunday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 90s.

Late next week into the following weekend, mostly sunny and seasonably hot weather is forecast as the troughs lift up to the northeast and a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas from the east. Expect high temperatures to return to the low and mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Venus-Jupiter Conjunction this Week

When the sun goes down tonight and each night this week, step outside and look toward the west. The two brightest planets in the Solar System will be converging for a beautiful conjunction. At closest approach on June 9th, Venus and Jupiter will be just 1.6 degrees apart–similar to the Great Conjunction of 2002. And this is just the beginning. Next week, the planet Mercury and the crescent Moon will join Venus and Jupiter to form a must-see quartet in the twilight sky. It will be a marvelous two-week show! (Courtesy Spaceweather.com)

Have a great week!

Bob

Midday forecast solutions have trended noticeably wetter for much of the area Friday evening through Friday night. A trough of low pressure lifting northeast out of northern Mexico is expected to cause the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning late Friday afternoon, with the activity continuing Friday evening through Friday night. High resolution forecasts indicate developing showers and thunderstorms will be moving slowly and have the potential to move over the same area.

With the ground still wet from recent rains and an unusually moist atmosphere in place, there will be a potential for pockets of heavy rain producing significant totals, leading to excessive runoff.

The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for most of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, along with Burnet County through 1 am Saturday morning.

NWS forecasts call for scattered pockets of 2–4-inch totals across the watch area. Isolated totals of 6-8 inches will be possible with some of the storms that happen to train over the same area.

For the Hill Country and coastal regions, a there will also be a threat for moderate to heavy rain Friday evening and Friday night. Totals through Saturday morning are forecast to generally average between 1 and 3 inches.

The forecast for Saturday and Saturday night calls for a 50 percent chance scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region as the upper trough slowly exits to the northeast. Rain amounts are predicted to average around a half inch. The chance for rain will drop to 30 percent Sunday while the moist air mass remains across the area. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and dry weather with daily high temperatures mostly in the low 90s.

Bob

As we kick off the month of June, our weather will be transitioning to a more summer-like pattern, featuring higher humidity levels and warmer temperatures. A chance for rain will enter the forecast Wednesday with additional chances for rain continuing through the upcoming weekend. Totals over the next seven days should average somewhere between 1 and 1.5 inches.

Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere covering most of Texas and northern Mexico. Stable, sinking air from the ridge will cause generally dry and sunny weather across the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A Few spotty afternoon rain showers will possible across the coastal region on both days and especially on Tuesday as we see increasing moisture off the Gulf. In addition, forecasters will be monitoring the possibility for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along a cold front over East Texas Tuesday afternoon. These showers are forecast to spread to the southwest and have a slight chance reaching parts of Central Texas and the northern Hill Country Tuesday evening. Rain amounts through Tuesday evening should average less than a quarter inch. Warm and very humid conditions will be in place. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 90-92 degrees. Lows are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s.

The chance for a more widespread coverage of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will take shape Wednesday and continue through the upcoming weekend as the ridge over Texas weakens and a trough of low pressure moves into northern Mexico out of the Pacific. Weak waves of low pressure rotating around the main trough and spreading across Texas are expected to cause periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms through Sunday. The probability for rain looks to be near 50 percent Wednesday and Thursday.  The probability for rain is forecast to increase to near 70 percent Friday through Saturday as the upper trough over Mexico shifts further east towards Texas. The probability for rain Sunday will lower to around 40 percent.

The atmospheric setup doesn’t look all that favorable for widespread severe storms, but a couple of isolated strong storms could produce strong winds and some hail.

The Weather Prediction Center’s Daily Rainfall Forecast Wednesday through Saturday:

Total rain amounts through Saturday are forecast to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches across the region:

WPC Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Saturday:

With an increased amount of cloud cover and periods of rain coming up, high temperatures Wednesday through Sunday are predicted to generally be around 88-90 degrees each day. Low temperatures will remain in the low and mid-70s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for a decreasing chance for rain early in the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to set up over southeastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will cause a sunny, dry, and warm weather pattern next week, with daily high temperatures predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30th.

Weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are currently quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/01/2026 12:20 pm CDT

Venus and Jupiter are Getting Closer Together

Tonight, after the sun goes down, go outside and look west. The two brightest planets, Venus and Jupiter, will be beautifully close together in the twilight sky. The two planets are converging for a tight conjunction on June 8-9. Watch the distance shrink every night this week.

Have a great week!

Bob

Weather conditions will be feeling much like summer heading into the weekend. Friday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure spreading northeast across Texas out of northern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to remain over the area through the weekend, causing sunny, warm, and humid weather. While no rain is expected across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, forecasters will be keeping an eye on West Texas where a few isolated thunderstorms may develop along the dry line each afternoon. Any developing storms could potentially track east, reaching the western Hill Country in the evenings. However, the chance for this occurring will be less than 20 percent.

High temperatures Friday through Sunday will generally be near 90-93 degrees. Low temperatures will generally be in the low and mid-70s.

Some changes in the weather pattern look to occur next week as the ridge over Texas slowly shifts to the east. At the same time, a broad area of low pressure is predicted to take shape over northwestern Mexico. With the ridge departing to the east, atmospheric moisture levels are predicted to increase beginning Monday and remain quite high through the end of next week. Weak waves of low pressure rotating around the low over Mexico are forecast to spread across Texas throughout the week, causing the development of mainly afternoon and evening showers and scattered thunderstorms.

The probability for rain will only be around 20 percent Monday but will increase to around 40-50 percent Tuesday through Friday. Heavy rain and severe storms are not anticipated at this time. Daily rain amounts are predicted to be around a quarter inch or less.

High temperatures next week are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees Monday but fall to the upper 80s next Tuesday through Friday.

Rain amounts over the next week are predicted to generally average between 0.50 and 1 inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:

The outlook for next weekend and the week of June 8^th calls for just a slight chance for rain each afternoon along with a partly cloudy sky. High temperatures are predicted to stay generally in the low 90s through the period.

Possible Tropical Development in the Eastern Tropical Pacific:

National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week

well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja, California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward away from land at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the East Pacific.

NHC forecasters are giving this potential system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Three Planets in the Sunset Sky

When the sun goes down tonight and for the next few nights, step outside and look west. The bright planets Venus and Jupiter are converging in the twilight sky. You can’t miss them. The two will be getting noticeably closer together every night as they head for a tight conjunction on June 8-9. Soon, the planet Mercury will join the show as well, with the three planets forming a trio in the evening sky.

What a Wet May!

Much of the region has seen several rounds of soaking rain throughout May. Totals for the month have generally averaged between 5 and 7 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 6 and 8 inches across the coastal plains. Parts of Burnet and Llano Counties saw close to 10 inches. Interestingly, the coastal plains region received the highest totals of rain, with parts of Wharton and Matagorda Counties recording nearly a foot of rain. The rainy and wet weather has been very welcome after such a dry fall and winter!

NWS Estimate of rain falling between May 1 and May 28:

Rainfall Departure from Normal May 1-May 28:

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Forecasters are closely monitoring a line of thunderstorms across West Texas that as of 1 pm stretched from Big Spring, to Ozona, to northwest of Del Rio. The line of storms is moving steadily to the east and is expected to reach the western counties of the Hill Country between 3 pm and 6 pm. The storms are predicted to spread across the eastern Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor this evening and toward midnight, and locations east of I-35 between midnight and 6 am Wednesday.  The storms should push off the middle Texas coast around daybreak Wednesday.

Some of the storms withing this line may be strong to severe—especially across the Hill Country region.

With this in mind, the Storm Prediction Center has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the western and central counties of the Hill Country through 9 pm. Very large hail, damaging winds to near 75 mph, and deadly lightning will be the primary severe weather threats.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern Hill Country and the remainder of the region under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this evening and overnight.

The area of rain and storms is expected to bring widespread, soaking rains to much of the region. Since the ground is still wet from recent rains, any additional rain is expected to runoff quickly. Because of this, the NWS has posted a Flood Watch for the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor through Wednesday morning. Totals of 1-3 inches with isolated pockets of 5 inches are predicted for areas within the Flood Watch.

Flood Watch through 8 am Wednesday Morning for Counties Highlighted in Green:

Totals through Wednesday across the rest of the region morning are forecast to generally be between 1 and 2 inches with isolated heavier totals.

A chance for additional showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, but rain amounts are expected to average less than a half inch.

I urge everyone to stay weather aware this afternoon and overnight. Have multiple methods to receive severe weather warnings and alerts from the National Weather Service.

Bob

We remain in an active and wet weather pattern that looks to remain in place through late next week. The latest complex of rain and thunderstorms that spread across the northern half of the Hill Country Thursday evening produced areas of intense rain, resulting in widespread totals of 0.5 to 2 inches. LCRA’s Hydromet showed a couple of isolated totals to near 3 inches. For most locations to the southeast of Austin, the rain stayed north, resulting totals of less than a tenth of an inch.

Friday is expected to be a drier day as sinking air spreads over the area in the wake of Thursday evening’s storms. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few scattered afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms due to lingering moisture and atmospheric instability. However, no organized or widespread storm systems are forecast. Under a partly cloudy sky, expect the temperature to climb to the mid and upper 80s.

Friday evening, forecasts call for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dry line across the Concho Valley and West Texas in advance of a trough of low pressure moving into Far West Texas and the southern Plains states. The thunderstorms are predicted to spread east to the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country region late Friday evening, then diminish around midnight. For most locations, there will be a 20 percent chance for a few scattered showers or thunderstorms after midnight.

An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through the weekend and next week. Saturday through Sunday, forecasts call for the West Texas trough to slowly track east, with several weak disturbances rotating through the main trough. With a very moist air mass in place, these small waves of low pressure will likely cause the development of numerous rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Timing out these disturbances and the resultant thunderstorms is extremely difficult. Generally speaking, the chance for rain will be near 50-60 percent both Saturday and Sunday, falling to 30 percent on Memorial Day.

The Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast shows the highest totals of rain occurring Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with widespread totals of 1-1.5 inches possible. Totals of 0.25-0.5 inches are forecast for Sunday.  Totals are predicted to average less than a quarter inch on Monday.

According to the National Weather Service, total rain amounts through Monday are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday:

The threat for severe thunderstorms through Memorial Day appears low. Daily high temperatures through Monday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s.

With the ground wet from recent rains, additional rains through the weekend could cause rapid runoff, leading to flash flooding. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch through Monday morning for the counties highlighted in green.

Flood Watch 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Monday:

For next Tuesday through Friday,  a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to continue due to lingering deep tropical moisture and weak atmospheric lift. A somewhat higher chance for rain and storms is predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday as the next upstream trough of low pressure moves across Texas. This system has the potential to bring another 1-2 inches of rain to much of the area over these two days. Totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast for Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures next week are forecast to remain mostly in the upper 80s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Updated Climate Outlook for June

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly climate outlook update Thursday, including the update for June. The latest June prediction calls for no clear trend for rainfall across the eastern half of Texas. However, the outlook leans toward above normal rain for the western half. The temperature outlook leans toward above normal for areas east of Interstate 35 but shows no clear trend for the Hill Country and much of West Texas.

A somewhat unsettled weather pattern looks to continue through June, offering up more opportunities for rain and less hot temperatures.

Wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday weekend!

Bob

It’s shaping up to be a wet week across the entire region. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to begin Tuesday and continue through late week and the holiday weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible with each of the passing disturbances. Forecasts indicate large part of the area could see more than 5 inches of rain over the next seven days.

Monday Afternoon through Monday Night

No significant rain is forecast through Monday night. A moderate wind flow off the Gulf will cause a partly to mostly cloudy sky Monday afternoon, followed by overcast conditions Monday night. Expect southerly winds with gust to near 30 mph. Monday’s temperature is predicted to peak up near 88-90 degrees. Lows Tuesday morning will include the low and mid-70s across the Hill Country, with upper 70s at most other locations.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night

There will be an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms developing across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night when a weak cold front sags to the south out of North Texas. High-resolution forecast models suggest showers and thunderstorms will blossom along and ahead of the cold front across North Texas during the day Tuesday, with the activity spreading south into the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning late Tuesday afternoon. Forecasters will also be monitoring West Texas where thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dry line Tuesday afternoon and spread to the east. The area of rain and storms is predicted to sink south and spread over the middle Texas coast late Tuesday evening. Some of these storms along the cold front and also with the dry line may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all the Hill Country along with the Austin and Interstate 35 corridor under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms Tuesday through Tuesday night. The rest of the region has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms. Large hail to near 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 75 mph will be possible with some of the severe storms. For both regions, the probability for rain will be near 50 percent Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 80 percent Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The chance for rain and storms is expected to decrease late Tuesday night as the storms exit the region and push offshore.

Rain amounts through daybreak Wednesday morning are forecast to generally average around an inch. Isolated pockets of 2-3 inches will be possible.

Wednesday through Thursday

Wednesday’s weather will likely include a temporary lull in widespread rain following the passage of Tuesday night’s storms. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night due to the stalled cold front and lingering moist air mass. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a half inch.

The probability for rain showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday as a wave of low pressure lifts northeast out of Mexico and tracks across Central Texas. At the same time, the cold front is predicted to remain stalled over the area. This setup is expected to support another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather potential will be limited, compared to what is expected Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is expected to be a greater concern. Rain amounts Thursday are predicted to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.

Friday through Memorial Day

Periods of rain showers and thunderstorms look to continue Friday through Monday as additional wave of low pressure move across Texas in a persistent southwesterly flow in the middle and upper atmosphere. The probability for rain each day is forecast to be near 70-80 percent. Each wave of low pressure is forecast to cause areas of rain and storms. Daily rain amounts are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch. The severe weather potential should remain low late week into the weekend, with locally heavy rain and occasional lightning be the main concerns. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be in the low and mid-80s.

The Weather Prediction Center’s Daily Rainfall Forecast through Saturday:

Next Week

Forecasts indicate the wet and unsettled weather pattern will continue through late next week. Additional waves of low pressure are expected to spread over Texas through throughout the week, causing more periods of rain and storms.

Forecast Totals Over the Next Seven Days

There will be a gradually increasing potential for flash flood and riverine flooding this week and into Memorial Day weekend as each round of rain saturates the ground further. Historically, the latter half of May has been famous for producing big totals of rain and oftentimes flooding. Please stay weather aware over the next several days!

The Weather Prediction Center’s cumulative seven-day rainfall forecast calls for widespread totals of 5-7 inches across most of the Hill Country, Central Texas, and middle Texas coast. Some totals in excess of 7 inches are indicated for the eastern counties of Central Texas.

Have a great week!

Bob