Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

An unsettled weather pattern brought periods of rain and thunderstorms to the region over the weekend. An area of storms spread across the northern Hill Country Friday night, producing a large swath of 1–2-inch totals over the area between Rock Springs, Junction, Mason, Llano, and Burnet. The storms on Sunday produced two areas of heavy rain. The first area was southeast of Austin, close to Interstate 10. A widespread area of 2–3-inch totals stretched from just east of Gonzales, to Columbus, to just north of Houston. A core of 7–8-inch totals occurred across northern Lavaca and southern Fayette Counties. The second area of heavy rain occurred across southern San Saba, northern Llano, and northwestern Burnet Counties. Totals within this second area generally ranged between 3 and 6.5 inches. 3-day totals across the rest of the region generally remained below 0.75 inches.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 7 am Friday and 7 am Monday:

Data courtesy NOAA’s West Gulf River Forecast Center

Monday’s analysis showed the trough of low pressure responsible for this weekend’s wet and unsettled weather has exited northeast of our region. As a result, atmospheric moisture levels have begun to drop from the unusually high levels observed earlier. This means the threat for additional heavy rain has diminished—at least for the time being. Without a source for strong atmospheric lift, only an isolated shower or two is forecast across the region through Monday night. The probability for rain will be less than 20 percent.  Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky Monday afternoon with the temperature warming to the mid-80s.

Tuesday is expected to be another generally dry day across the region. Morning clouds should give way to a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. Expect high temperatures in the low and mid-80s. Forecasters will be monitoring western Texas where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the late afternoon along the dry line. High-resolution forecasts call some of the thunderstorms to track east through the western and northern Hill Country Tuesday evening. It’s possible a couple of the storms could reach as far east as Mason and San Saba Counties, before dissipating late Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe—producing large hail and damaging winds. Spotty totals of 0.5 to 1 inch are forecast. No rain is predicted for the eastern Hill Country, the Austin/Central Texas area, or the middle Texas coast.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms develop across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions as vigorous trough of low pressure moves from the southern Rockies to the Plains states. Moisture levels are expected to rise across the region in advance of the trough, and this may lead to the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. However, a better chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to occur late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as an area of rain and thunderstorms develops along the West Texas dry line and spreads to the east. Forecasts call for a broken line of thunderstorms to push east across the Hill Country late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, then spread east through Central Texas late Wednesday evening. There’s a slight chance a few storms could reach the middle Texas coast after midnight Wednesday night. The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent. High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be in the mid-80s.

Some of the storms across the Hill Country could be strong to possibly severe. The Storm Prediction has placed the Hill Country region under a 1 out 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

Rain amounts Wednesday through Thursday morning across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals to around 1 inch possible.

Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be partly cloudy and dry as the upper trough moves off to the northeast, and a more stable atmosphere sets up across the region. High temperatures both days are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.

A chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms will return to the forecast late Friday night into Saturday when a moderate cold front sinks south through the region. Forecasts call for the front to spread across the Hill Country Saturday morning, reaching Central Texas early to mid-afternoon, and the coastal region in the late afternoon and early evening. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast ahead of and along the cold front, but another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted to develop behind the front Saturday night into Sunday as a weak overrunning pattern takes shape. The probability for rain will be 40-50 percent on Saturday, and near 30-40 percent Saturday night through Sunday.

Temperatures will trend a bit cooler behind the cold front late Saturday through next Monday.

• High temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the mid-70s
• Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will range from around 50 degrees across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s near the coast

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center 7-day total rainfall forecast through next Monday calls for general totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the Hill Country and less than a half inch for most other locations:

The outlook for next week calls for a slight chance for rain Monday and Tuesday, with a slightly better chance for rain the second half of next week. Forecasts show our region will remain under a southwesterly wind flow out of the Pacific throughout the week. High temperatures are predicted to generally be in the mid-80s.

Comet PanSTARRS

Our weather and cloudy skies likely won’t be cooperating, but I wanted to make everyone aware a comet is currently visible in the early morning sky and will remain visible through next Sunday morning.

Over the weekend, Comet PanSTARRS (C/2025 R3) almost doubled in brightness as it approached the sun for a 0.5 AU close encounter on April 19-20. Observers are now reporting magnitudes near +4.5. This is not quite visible to the unaided eye, but it is definitely a target for binoculars and small telescopes.

If you want to view or photograph Comet PanSTARRS, set your alarm for no later than ~3 am. The comet rises in the eastern sky 60 to 90 minutes before the sun. Look low in the east, inside the Great Square of Pegasus.

Bob

An unsettled, active weather pattern has taken hold across Texas. This change has come about as the persistent ridge of high pressure over Texas has recently shifted to the east, allowing a southwesterly flow in the middle and upper atmosphere to develop from eastern Pacific into Texas. At the same time, moisture levels have increased significantly thanks to a moderate wind flow off the Gulf. This setup is expected to remain in place through late next week, keeping a daily chance for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast.

For Friday afternoon and Friday night, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the region due to abundant moisture and a modest amount of instability. No severe weather is anticipated. The probability for rain at any given location will be near 40-50 percent. For locations that do see rain, totals should average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible. Expect high temperatures in the low 80s. The rain activity will diminish Friday evening, followed by cloudy and dry weather Friday night through Saturday morning.

Saturday’s weather is looking to be similar to Friday’s weather with a cloudy sky through the morning hours, followed by a partly to mostly cloudy sky in the afternoon. There will be a 40-50 percent chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening due to persistent instability across the area. Rain amounts through Saturday evening will again average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch. Saturday’s temperature is forecast to generally warm to the low 80s.

A large area of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Concho Valley and areas to the south Saturday evening as a wave of low pressure begins to lift northeast out of Mexico. This area of rain and storms is predicted to push to the east and spread across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country regions late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Should the area of storms hold together, some of the storms may spread east to the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor Sunday morning. Atmospheric conditions appear to be somewhat favorable for a few of these storms to be strong to severe. The primary severe threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country under a 2 out of 5 risk for Sunday. The remainder of the region has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk.

Sunday’s early-morning storms are forecast to decrease in intensity by late Sunday morning. However, a passing wave of low pressure over the area Sunday is expected to cause an increased chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe. The probability for rain will be near 60-70 percent. The chance for rain looks to decrease Sunday evening and Sunday night.

Rain amounts through Saturday afternoon are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country and between 0.25 and 0. 5 inches at most other locations. Isolated totals of 2-3 inches will be possible across the area.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Sunday:

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for another wave of low pressure to spread across Texas Monday, causing the development of more showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region, with the most favorable area for rain occurring across the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. The probability for rain Monday looks to be near 40-50 percent and rain amounts should average between 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

Tuesday through Friday, forecasts call for the active weather pattern to continue with at least a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms each day. The probability for rain each day will be near 20-30 percent. High temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the mid-80s.

Interestingly, this unsettled pattern looks to also continue into the following week.

La Niña is Done. The Pacific has returned to ENSO Neutral

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions have returned to the tropical Pacific. The persistent tongue of cooler than-normal waters has diminished as warmer water has spread in from the west. NOAA calls for these waters to continue warming over the next few months, with high probabilities for the development of El Nino by summer.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Saturday’s cold front brought another round of some much-needed rain to the region. Weekend rain amounts generally averaged between 0.5 and 1 inch, although several Hill Country locations saw totals of less than a quarter inch. Combining both rain recent events since last Wednesday, several spots across the Hill Country and Central Texas have measured between 2 and 3 inches of rain so far for April.

Sunshine has returned to the region as drier air has finally spread in behind the weekend cold front. Satellite images show considerable middle and high-level clouds associated with a weak trough of low pressure located over Arizona and northern Mexico. These clouds are moving to the east and will likely spread over most of Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night, causing a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The atmosphere will be too dry for any rain. A mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky is forecast Wednesday.

Cool temperatures are forecast Monday afternoon and Monday night, but warmer readings are expected Tuesday into Wednesday as east and southeasterly breezes return.

• Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, and in the upper 40s across the rest of the region
• High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low and mid-70s
• Lows Wednesday morning will generally be in the low 50s, with mid and upper 50s expected towards the coast
• High temperatures Wednesday look to be near 78-80 degrees

There will be a low (20-30%) chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for areas along and east of Interstate 35 on Thursday as moisture increases off the Gulf. The chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms for this same area will increase to 30-40% Friday as the atmosphere is forecast to become quite moist and somewhat unstable.  Meanwhile, the chance for rain across the Hill Country on Friday is predicted to only be near 20 percent.

Rain amounts Thursday through Friday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for the coastal plains region, and between a tenth and quarter inch for areas along and east of Interstate 35.

An unsettled weather pattern is predicted to continue this weekend and into Monday as a large trough of low pressure pushes inland along the West Coast. While considerable moisture will remain across Central Texas and coastal regions, the most favorable area for rain and thunderstorms is expected to shift to northwest Texas and the Concho Valley region as thunderstorms develop along the West Texas dry line and track to the east. Both Saturday and Sunday will bring a 50 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms to the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor regions, and a 30-40 percent chance for rain for the remainder of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Some of the storms across West Texas could be strong to severe. Showers and a few thunderstorms look to continue into next Monday before the western trough lifts north into the southern Rockies.

Rain amounts Saturday through Monday are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country, and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches at most other locations. I will point out there are some forecast model solutions calling for higher totals Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Total rain amounts through next Monday evening are forecast to be between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country, and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for most of the rest of the region.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through Next Monday at 7 pm:

Temperatures late week and through the weekend will include highs in the low 80s, with lows in the 60s.

The outlook for the remainder of next week calls for dry weather next Tuesday through Thursday, followed by another chance for rain late week into the following weekend. No significant temperature change is forecast. Expect high temperatures in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the 60s.

Have a great week!

Bob

A large area of rain and thunderstorms pushed east out of West Texas late Wednesday night and spread across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas early Thursday morning. Totals were generally in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 inches, although a pocket of 2-2.5-inch totals occurred over the area between Mason and Eldorado. LCRA’s highest gauged total was 2.90 inches at a location in eastern Schlicher County, to the northwest of Fort McKavett. The area of rain turned to the northeast when it approached SH 77 about mid-morning Thursday. As a result, little to no rain occurred across the coastal plains.

It’s interesting to note one of storms that occurred Thursday morning across Lee County appears to have produced a weak tornado. The National Weather Service determined a weak tornado touched down briefly in Lee County Thursday morning based on photos and drone footage received by the Lee County Office of Emergency Management along with radar analysis. The tornado formed roughly six miles southwest of Giddings, near CR 208 and FM 2239, and moved northeast into Giddings before dissipating. Sporadic damage was observed to power lines, tree limbs, and tin sheds, as well as some small sections of tin roofs and eaves peeled back.

Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, dry and warm weather is forecast for most areas. However, an isolated afternoon shower or two cannot be ruled out across the coastal region. Thursday’s temperature should reach the low and mid-80s, warming to the mid and upper 80s on Friday.

Another period of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast across the region beginning late Friday as a potent trough of low pressure tracks northeast from the southern Rockies. The trough will help push a cold front south across the state during the day on Saturday. The front is predicted to move across the Hill Country Saturday morning and the Austin/Central Texas area Saturday afternoon.  The front is forecast to slowly push south through the coastal region Saturday night.

In advance of the trough and front, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop late Friday afternoon across West Texas along the dry line. These storms are predicted to track to the east and could move over parts of the western Hill Country Friday evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Elsewhere, a separate area of scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas after midnight Friday night and continue through Saturday morning as the atmosphere grows increasingly moist and unstable. A widespread area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is then predicted to develop along and behind the cold front over the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday and Saturday night. For the coastal region, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage Saturday afternoon and continue through Saturday night.

The threat for widespread severe storms Saturday appears low. However, a couple of strong to severe storms cannot be totally ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed southeast Texas under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday

Forecasts call for the rain to taper off across the northern Hill Country early Sunday. For the remainder of the Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast, periods of rain look to continue Easter Sunday, Sunday night, and into early Monday morning as a weak overrunning pattern sets up behind the cold front. The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent.

Rainfall forecasts through Monday call for widespread totals of 1-1.25 inches. A few isolated heavier totals will be possible—mainly across the western Hill Country.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Tuesday:

Noticeably cooler temperatures will follow the cold front Saturday, with the cooler readings expected to hang around into middle of the week.

• Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s across Central Texas, with mid and upper 60s towards the coast
• High temperatures Easter will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast
• Lows Monday morning will again be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with mid-50s towards the coast.
• High temperatures Monday will be in the mid and upper 60s
• Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are predicted to be in the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with low and mid-50s towards the coast

Clouds will clear Monday morning, followed by mostly sunny conditions and slightly warmer temperatures next Tuesday through Friday, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Longer range forecasts point to a chance for rain returning next weekend as a trough of low pressure sets up over northwestern Mexico.

Updated Rainfall Outlook for April

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a revised outlook for the month of April on Tuesday. The new outlook favors above normal rainfall across most of Texas, extending northeast to the Great Lakes region. Several rounds of rain and storms are forecast through the month.

With the forecast leaning toward above normal rainfall across most of the state during April, CPC’s 3-month seasonal drought outlook was revised and now calls for drought improvement across much of the Hill Country and Central Texas.

Have a safe and happy holiday weekend!

Bob

Confidence has increased in the forecast for rain later this week and for the upcoming weekend. Not only has the chance for rain gone up but forecasted rain amounts have also increased. It’s not out of the question that much of our area could receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain over the next seven days. After another warm week, cooler temperatures will arrive this weekend and look to stick around for a good part of next week.

Warm and rain-free weather is predicted across the region Monday through Wednesday afternoon. Humidity levels will be on the increase thanks to a moderate wind flow off the Gulf. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph through Wednesday.

• High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will generally be in the mid and upper 60s

The weather pattern is expected to become more active beginning late Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend as two separate troughs of low pressure track east out of the western U.S. The first trough is predicted to track from the southern Rockies to the central Plains states late Wednesday into Thursday. Forecasts call for an area of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the West Texas dry line late Wednesday in advance of the approaching trough. High resolution forecasts call for the line of thunderstorms to push east, spreading across the Hill Country Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, with the showers and thunderstorms reaching the Austin/Central Texas area after midnight Wednesday night, and the coastal region before daybreak Thursday. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.

As of now, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated due to just modest instability.

Rain amounts through Thursday afternoon are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country, and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for most other locations.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Thursday:

The chance for rain and thunderstorms is expected to diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon, followed by dry weather Thursday night through Friday afternoon. High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the mid-80s.

The second and stronger trough of low pressure is forecast to track northeast from the southern Rockies late Friday and will help to push a Canadian cold front south through Texas on Saturday. Forecasts call for the cold front spread across the Hill Country Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon, reaching the Austin/Central Texas area Saturday afternoon and the coastal region Saturday evening. While some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of the front, it appears the most widespread and heavier precipitation will fall behind the cold front in an overrunning setup Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Some occasional light showers may continue Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

As of now, the threat for severe storms appears low since the heavier rains will be falling behind the cold front. However, we will need to monitor the situation over the next few days.

Rain amounts between late Friday and Sunday evening are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches across the region. Some pockets of higher totals will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Thursday through 7 pm Saturday:

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Saturday through 7 pm Monday:

Cooler air will follow the cold front beginning Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

• Lows Sunday morning will include the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s across Central Texas and the mid-50s towards the coast
• High temperatures Easter Sunday will generally be in the mid-60s
• Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low 70s

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and dry weather. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be mostly in the 70s, with lows in the 50s.

A slight chance for rain is forecast next weekend (April 11-12).

Have a great week!

Bob

A stout cold front will bring a noticeable change in the weather Friday afternoon and Friday night that will continue through Saturday night. The front is forecast to move across the Hill Country Friday afternoon, reaching the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor in the late afternoon, and pushing southeast to the coast Friday evening. Ahead of the cold front, the temperature is expected to warm to the mid and upper 80s. For Hill Country locations behind the cold front, the temperature is predicted to fall into the upper 60s.

Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 35 mph Friday night, with similar wind speeds continuing Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds should decrease to 5-10 mph Saturday night.

A few spotty light rain showers will be possible across the region beginning late Friday evening, continuing till about daybreak Saturday when a weak overrunning pattern sets across the region. The probability for rain will only be near 20 percent and totals, if any, should only be a few hundredths of an inch. Widespread clouds will be in place Friday night through Saturday morning, with the sky becoming partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. A sunny sky is predicted for Sunday.

Noticeably cooler conditions can be expected Friday night through Saturday. Warmer readings look to make a quick return beginning Sunday afternoon.

• Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the upper 40s to low 50s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s across the coastal area
• High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s across Central Texas, to the mid-70s across the coastal plains
• Lows Sunday morning will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the mid-50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s towards the coast
• High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the low 80s
• Lows Monday morning will be mostly in the low 60s

For next week, expect a mostly sunny and warm pattern Monday through Wednesday, with daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and mid-80s towards the coast.

A slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast Wednesday afternoon and continue into Friday when the first in a series of low pressure troughs push east out of the southern Rockies. While this system is forecast to track north of our region, it will be close enough to bring our region scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The most favorable period for rain looks to be on Thursday.

Forecast data calls for rain amounts through Friday to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through Next Friday at 7 pm:

Longer range forecasts call for a chance for scattered rain showers to continue across the region next weekend, with a better chance for rain and thunderstorms occurring late Sunday into Monday.

Warm temperatures are forecast late next week, continuing into next weekend. Forecasts call for somewhat cooler temperatures developing the week of April 6^th, with high temperatures falling to the 70s to low 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

It seems our short season of spring gave way to summer over the weekend as temperatures soared well into the 90s. Long-term averages indicate high temperatures for late March should be about 20 degrees cooler—in the mid-70s. The July-like heat resulted from the presence of a powerfully strong heat dome covering northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. This feature has kept our sky clear while enabling the temperature to warm to summer-like levels. More unusually warm temperatures are forecast throughout the workweek, but some cooler readings are on tap for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, no rain is forecast over the next week.

Monday’s weather maps showed a weak cold front stalled out across the northern half of Central Texas and the Hill Country. For areas north of the boundary, the air has cooled slightly. The front is predicted to remain stalled across the area through Monday night, then retreat back to the north on Tuesday.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the Hill Country, and in the low and mid-80s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast
• Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to reach the mid-50s across the Hill Country, and near 60-62 degrees at most other location

Tuesday through Friday, sunny and unseasonably warm will occur as the center of the heat dome spreads over Texas from the Desert Southwest. Fortunately, the magnitude of the heat dome is not expected to be as strong as it was over the weekend. Nevertheless, summer-like temperatures are still forecast.

• High temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be near 90 degrees
• Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings are forecast to be near 60-62 degrees

Cooler air looks to arrive late Friday afternoon into Friday evening behind a fairly strong cold front. No rain is expected along the front. Expect northerly winds to increase to 15-25 mph with higher gusts Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Noticeably cooler air is predicted for a brief period Friday night through Saturday night. Warmer air will return on Sunday.

• Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s across Central Texas, to around 60 degrees toward the coast
• High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast
• Lows Sunday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s across the Hill Country, with low and mid-50s at most other locations
• High temperatures Sunday will be in the low and mid-50s

Next week, a change in the weather pattern is forecast to take place as the ridge of high pressure over Texas shifts to the east and a broad trough of low pressure begins to become established across the western U.S. The trough is forecast to remain across the west through at least the following weekend, possibly longer. Forecasts call for waves of low pressure originating in the Pacific to begin moving over Texas around the middle of next week, continuing through the weekend. These waves of low pressure are expected to bring periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to much of Texas.

It’s too early to speculate on rain amounts with much confidence. I will point out several of the forecast solutions are pointing to totals of more than a half inch. The rainfall forecasts will become clearer over the next several days.

High temperatures next week are forecast to remain mostly in the low and mid-80s.

Fire Weather Concerns

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast to continue through Friday across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions due to low relative humidity readings in the teens and low 20s with southerly breezes between 10 and 20 mph. Any fire that develops will have the potential to spread quickly.

Friday will likely see an even higher fire weather potential as a cold front brings strong and gusty winds.

A Record Warm March

If you’ve been thinking it’s been unusually warm this month, you are correct.  March temperatures (through the 22nd) have been the warmest March on record across the U.S. and also across Texas. For the U.S., March is also shaping up to be one of the most anomalous (greatest departure from normal) months ever recorded.

Austin’s average temperature through March 22nd has been 69.2 degrees, which is 7.6 degree above normal, and ranks as the warmest March 1-22 on record since 1897. Most of Texas is seeing March’s temperature averaging between 6 and 10 degrees above normal.

Have a good week!

Bob

On this first day of astronomical spring, Texas remains solidly in the grips of a dry and unseasonably warm weather pattern. This dry and warm pattern is in large part due to the presence of an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, covering the western half of the U.S. The ridge has pushed the jet stream and storm track well north into southern Canada, while at the same time causing a dry and very stable atmosphere across Texas and the southwestern U.S. On a side note, this ridge is among the strongest ever observed in the month of March across the U.S. Sinking air under the center of the ridge produced dangerously hot temperatures across much of the southwest on Thursday and more dangerous heat is expected through the weekend. Martinez Lake, Arizona recorded a temperature of 110 degrees Thursday, setting a new U.S. record for the hottest March temperature ever recorded.

The western ridge is expected to have an increasing influence on Central and South Texas weather Friday and through the weekend as it expands further to the east. Near record high temperatures are expected through Sunday along with no chance for rain. It will likely feel more like July rather than March.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be around 90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions
• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the upper 80s across the coastal plains

Slightly lower temperatures are forecast Monday and Tuesday as the western ridge weakens and a weak cold front slides south and stalls over Central Texas. However, very warm readings will return for Wednesday and Thursday as the front dissipates and the center of the weakened western ridge moves over Texas.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday look to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-80s across the coastal region
• High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 80s near the coast

Continued sunny and dry weather with slightly cooler temperatures are predicted next Friday into next weekend when a stronger cold front brings in cooler air.  High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the 50s.

Looking out further into the week of March 30^th, long range forecasts call for high temperatures to return to mid and upper 80s, with lows in the 60s.

Dry weather is forecast for the first half of the week. However, some chances for rain are beginning to show up for the second half of the week as the persistent ridge moves away and a southwesterly flow from the Pacific begins to become established across the southwestern U.S. and Texas. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

Fire Weather Concerns

Dry air will remain in place across the Hill Country and Central Texas this weekend and into Monday. As temperatures soar the next couple of days, relative humidity levels will drop. Minimum relative humidity readings through Sunday are expected to fall below 30% over most of the area, and below 20% over the area west of Interstate 35. Winds Friday and Saturday are forecast to be near 10 mph but are expected to increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph on Sunday.  Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast Friday and Saturday and could become near critical on Sunday.

The Texas A&M Forest Service is showing a Very High to near Extreme Fire Danger across much of the region Sunday:

  There should be some improvement toward the middle of next week as wind speeds lower.

NOAA’s Updated Weather Outlook for April

On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its monthly outlook for April. The outlook shows temperatures and rainfall leaning above normal for the Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast.

La Niña is fading quickly, and forecasters anticipate a change in the weather pattern taking place in April that will bring more cold fronts and some Pacific storm systems into Texas. These will be very welcome rains and this will be quite a change from the dry pattern we’ve been stuck in since last September.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

Between Sunday and Monday, it seems our weather went from summer to winter. Sunday’s dry line allowed temperatures across Central Texas and the Hill Country to warm into the mid and upper 90s. Austin-Camp Mabry’s temperature reached 97 degrees, just one degree shy of the all-time March temperature. Austin-Bergstrom’s high temperature of 98 degrees matched the all-time March high temperature of 98 degrees set in 1971. A strong cold front pushed through the area late Sunday through Sunday evening, with strong winds gusting up to 50-55 mph at several locations. Much colder air followed the cold front Sunday night. Lows Monday morning ranged from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas, to the mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains. Many locations across Central Texas, including Austin, experienced a 24-hour temperature change of more than 50 degrees, making this one of the largest 24-hour changes in temperature on record.

Strong winds, with gusts to 25-35 mph, were still in place across the region Monday afternoon in the wake of Sunday’s cold front. These strong winds are forecast to slowly decrease Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Wind speeds are forecast to decrease to around 10-15 mph by late afternoon and continue in that range through Monday night. The combination of gusty winds and very low relative humidity readings will cause a very high fire danger through Monday evening. As a result, the National Weather Service will keep a Red Flag Warning in place for the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions through 8 pm.

• Any fires that develop could be difficult to control and spread rapidly with these conditions. Avoid any outdoor activities that could inadvertently cause wildfires.

Monday night is shaping up to be the coldest night of this cold spell, with a light freeze expected across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas as wind speeds decrease. Precautions should be taken for tender and newly planted vegetation.

• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 30-32 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and in the mid-30s across the middle Texas coast

Sunny and warmer weather is forecast Tuesday as southerly breezes return to the region. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph are predicted by the afternoon. With very dry air still in place, the combination of breezy conditions and dry air is expected to cause near-critical fire weather conditions across the region. Fire weather conditions are forecast to slowly improve mid and late week when relative humidity levels increase.

Sunny, dry, and much warmer weather is forecast Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend as an unusually strong heat dome sets up across the western and southwestern U.S. This heat dome is expected to be of the magnitude normally seen in the middle of summer, not in early spring. It is expected to bring record-breaking heat to much of the West late week and through the weekend.

Our region looks to get in on some of the unseasonable heat this weekend as well. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to drift as far east as New Mexico and Far West Texas Friday through Sunday before it finally weakens and drifts back to the west early next week.

• High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 80s to 90 degrees towards the coast

The outlook for next week calls for continued warm weather with little to no chance for rain. Forecasts call of the western heat dome to weaken and spread out across the southern U.S., keeping the storm track well to the north of Texas. High temperatures Monday through Thursday are forecast to be around 88-90 degrees. Slightly cooler temperatures should arrive late next week into next weekend.

Longer-range forecasts are hinting at a small chance for rain developing at the end of the month.

The Start of Astronomical Spring

The first day of spring 2026 will occur this Friday, March 20^th, at 9:46 am CDT. In the Northern Hemisphere, the spring equinox (also called the March equinox or vernal equinox across the globe) occurs when the Sun crosses the celestial equator going south to north. On the March equinox, the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere receive roughly equal amounts of sunlight; neither hemisphere is tilted more toward or away from the Sun than the other.

Have a good week!

Bob