...Dry and Pleasant Weather through Late Week, Spotty Showers Early Next Week...
Very welcome rains finally developed over parts of the region last night and this morning as the persistent upper trough finally lifted off to the northeast. For much of Central Texas, this was the first real rain since late August. The heaviest rains generally fell in a southwest to northeast band stretching from south of Fredericksburg to northwest Austin. Here, rain totals were generally between 0.5 and 1 inch. Across the rest of the Hill Country, rain totals were generally less than 0.25 inch. Southeast of Austin, most totals were generally around 0.25 inch or less. Totals near the coast, along and southeast of Highway 59, were generally between 0.5 and 1 inch. The highest total across the region appears to be 2.13 inches, recorded at LCRA's gauge along the Pedernales River, near Fredericksburg. The following graphic from the National Weather Service shows the estimated rainfall as of 7 am:
While these rains are very welcome, they aren't nearly enough to have any significant effect on the ongoing drought.
A cold front associated with the upper-trough of low pressure is moving across the region, bringing fall-like weather. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 70s across the northern Hill Country to the upper 80s near the coast. The air is considerably drier, with surface dewpoint temperatures falling to the mid and upper 40s. Breezy conditions will continue until sunset, but wind speeds will decrease to around 5 to 10 mph overnight. With a clear sky and light winds in place, the temperature will cool nicely overnight. Lows Wednesday morning will include the mid 40s to 50 degrees across the Hill Country, the low and middle 50s Central Texas with middle 50s across the coastal plains.
Sunny and very pleasant weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure in the upper atmosphere spreads over Texas from the west. High temperatures Wednesday will generally be in the mid and upper 80s while high temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 80s. Lows Thursday morning will be fairly uniform, mostly in the low and middle 50s region-wide. The sky will become partly cloudy on Friday as southerly winds begin to bring moisture back from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s. It will be warmer Friday night, with lows Saturday morning generally in the upper 60s.
Some changes in the weather will take place this weekend when another large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere develops over the central and southern Rockies. The trough will pull moisture north from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico resulting in a mostly cloudy sky. It will be breezy and warm both days with high temperatures both days in the mid and upper 80s. A few spotty light showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop late Sunday but no significant rain is expected. The trough over the West looks to lift northeast to the central Plains states Monday into Tuesday, with a small piece of the trough holding back over the Desert Southwest. Parts of the region will see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night as the trough exits northeast and a cold front sinks into the state. But unlike today's front, this next front will not have the same push behind it. As a result, I expect the next cold front will move into the Hill Country or stall just up to our north on Tuesday. The chance for rain looks to decrease next Tuesday with mild temperatures holding in place the remainder of next week. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s with lows in the low and middle 60s. Conditions for the remainder of next week look to stay dry.
Many of today computer-forecast solutions indicate a tropical depression or tropical will develop over the western Caribbean Sea early next week. This system is forecast to track north toward the southeastern US. Should this system develop, it doesn't appear to be a threat to areas of the western Gulf of Mexico. However, we'll all need to monitor this system's development and possible track.
Please Note: I will be out of the office the rest of this week. My next blog entry will be on Monday, 10/13. Thanks for reading!
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No thunderstorms are forecast.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No rain is forecast.
SPECIAL LCRA OPERATIONAL STATEMENTS...None. Rains in late August eased the fire danger at many locations. However, with such dry condition in September, drought conditions are growing worse. Burn bans are in effect for the following counties: Austin, Bell, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Kimble, Lee, Lampasas, Llano, Menard, San Saba, Travis, Washington, and Williamson Counties. A complete listing of burn bans can be found at: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES OF: BROWN, COMANCHE, MILLS, SAN SABA, COLEMAN, AND LAMPASAS ..Including the cities of Brownwood, Comanche, Goldthwaite, San Saba, Coleman and Lampasas..
.TONIGHT...CLEAR...COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 83 TO 89. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 80. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 13 - Oct. 17 Near Normal Temperatures. Near Normal Precipitation. ==============================================================================================================================
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES OF: BLANCO, LLANO, BURNET, GILLESPIE, KENDALL, KERR, AND MASON ..Including the cities of Johnson City, Llano, Burnet, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Kerrville and Mason..
.TONIGHT...CLEAR...COOLER. LOWS 46 TO 52. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 51 TO 57. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 13 - Oct. 17 Near Normal Temperatures. Near Normal Precipitation. =============================================================================================================================
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OF: BASTROP, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, HAYS, LEE, TRAVIS, AND WILLIAMSON ..Including Metro Austin, Bastrop, Lockhart, San Marcos, Giddings, and Georgetown...
.TONIGHT...CLEAR...COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 50 TO 57. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 58 TO 63. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. .COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 13 - Oct. 17 Near Normal Temperatures. Near Normal Precipitation. ==========================================================================================================================================
LCRA FORECAST FOR THE IRRIGATION DISTRICTS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF:
COLORADO, MATAGORDA AND WHARTON ..Including the cities of Columbus, Bay City and Wharton..
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS AROUND 70. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 13 - Oct. 17 Near Normal Temperatures. Below Normal Precipitation. ==================================================================================================================================
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 30 and 90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE LCRA SERVICE AREA :
OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER...Equal Chances for Above, Below or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.
OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER through DECEMBER...Above Normal Temperatures. Equal chances for Above, Below or Normal Precipitation.
Note: The next seasonal outlook will be issued by the National Weather Service Thursday, October 16, 2008.
