It’s been quite a week of heat and humidity! Although the calendar shows we’re in the last couple of days of astronomical summer, it is feeling more like the middle of July. Forecasts call for the unseasonably hot pattern to continue into the weekend, followed by somewhat less hot temperatures and a few spotty rain showers next week. Forecasters are keeping a close watch on possible tropical development in the Caribbean Sea next week. As of now, it’s unclear where this potential system might track, but a path towards the western Gulf of Mexico is certainly in play. See the tropical section below for more details.
July-like temperatures and sunny, dry weather will continue Friday afternoon through Saturday as the summer heat dome remains focused across Texas and northern Mexico. Expect light southerly breezes at 5-10 mph.
- High temperatures Friday and Saturday are predicted to be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees across the Austin/Central Texas area, and in the mid-90s at most other locations
Slight changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place beginning Sunday when a trough of low pressure pushing east out of the Four Corners region helps to nudge the center of the heat dome eastward to Lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico. With a less intense heat dome overhead, it should help to shave about 2-3 degrees off of the high temperatures for Sunday and the first half of next week.
- High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday are forecast to generally be around 90-92 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
Forecasts indicate there will be a slight chance (20 percent chance) for a few scattered afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country regions Monday and Tuesday when a weak cold front associated with the Four Corners trough sags southeast out of West Texas. Rain amounts, if any, are predicted to only be around a tenth of an inch. No rain is forecast Monday and Tuesday across the Austin/Central Texas area or the middle Texas coast.
A slight chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the Austin/Central Texas area as well as the Hill Country region Tuesday night through Wednesday as the stalled, weak cold front over the Hill Country gets reinforced and gets a push southeast to Gulf. For areas that do happen to see a little rain, totals are forecast to remain below a quarter inch.
Sunny, dry, and less hot weather looks to follow the weak cold front late next week into next weekend. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be around 90-92 degrees, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Although autumn begins Sunday, there are unfortunately no signs of a strong autumn cold front or widespread rain coming our way anytime soon. Long-range solutions indicate another weak cold front may sink south into our area around October 1st, bringing a slight chance for rain and just slightly cooler air.
Tropical Weather Outlook
A complex weather setup is beginning to take shape over the western Caribbean Sea, and the southern Gulf of Mexico. This situation may eventually lead to the development of a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center indicates a broad area of low pressure could form over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea by early next week. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over this area by the middle or latter part of next week.
There is currently considerable uncertainty regarding the strength and future path of this potential tropical system. The latest forecast model and ensemble solutions are split between tracks to northern or northeastern Gulf and tracks toward the western Gulf and the coast of Mexico. For the time being, NHC is forecasting the potential system to move slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
NHC forecasters are giving this system a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.
Autumn Begins Sunday
The fall equinox and the first day of autumn arrives this Sunday, September 22nd at 07:44 am CDT in the Northern Hemisphere. The equinox occurs at the same moment worldwide.
During an equinox, the Sun crosses what we call the “celestial equator”—an imaginary extension of Earth’s equator line into space. The equinox occurs precisely when the Sun’s center passes through this line. After the autumnal equinox, days become shorter than nights as the Sun continues to rise later and nightfall arrives earlier. This ends with the winter solstice, after which days will start to grow longer once again.
Have a great weekend and stay cool!
Bob
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