Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Weather conditions are forecast to remain quiet and dry across the region this afternoon. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Forecasters will be closely monitoring West and Northwest Texas this afternoon as a small trough of low pressure approaches from New Mexico. High resolution forecasts indicate scattered clusters of thunderstorms will develop across this general area along a southward moving cold front. The thunderstorms are forecast to eventually organize into a large complex of thunderstorms that is expected to track to the southeast overnight.

Forecasts call for the complex of storms to reach the area between San Angelo and Brownwood around midnight, spreading southeast across the Hill Country between about midnight and 3 am. The area of storms is predicted to reach the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between about 3 am and 5 am. The storms are forecast to weaken and fall apart as they push east of I-35 and are not expected to move over the coastal plains.

There is a potential for some of the storms to be strong to severe due to the ongoing moist and unstable atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of West Texas and the northern Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through Thursday night. All of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Large to isolated very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe gusts will likely be the main severe weather threats. There will also be a low potential for a couple of tornadoes.

Rainfall from the overnight storms is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, for areas to the west of Interstate 35. However, isolated totals of 2-3 inches will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Friday:

There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday morning as the area of showers diminishes. Generally dry weather is forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday. A slight chance for rain will return to the forecast for Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Develops in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

The first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific of 2025, Tropical Storm Alvin, has developed several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico.  Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity has increased and become more organized around the center. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph. Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for about the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula this weekend.

Alvin should have no direct impact on Texas weather.

NWS Survey Team’s Assessment of Wednesday’s Storm in Austin

A National Weather Service survey team concluded a long track microburst, associated with a supercell, occurred from central Austin, near the Hyde Park area, southeast to just east of the Austin Bergstrom International Airport. The length of the damage was approximately 10 miles long, with a path width ranging from one mile to a maximum of around 2.5 miles on the east side of Austin. Numerous trees and powerlines were damaged along the path.

Large tree branches were snapped and a few trees uprooted that had shallow root systems. Minor shingle damage was observed on some homes. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be between 65 and 85 mph. The Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a peak wind gust of 77 mph. In addition, sporadic, non-continuous wind damage was observed into northwest Austin along the supercell’s track. This consisted mainly of small to medium sized tree branches. Part of a gas station canopy collapsed onto two vehicles. Winds through this area were estimated at 55-75 mph. Sporadic wind damage was also observed to the south, associated with the rear flank downdraft. This was mainly damage to small to medium tree branches. In addition, the rear flank downdraft also below out windows on the top of the rotunda at Texas Capitol building.

There was no damage observed that was consistent with a tornado. The survey team also observed damage to tree foliage along the track of the hail core.

NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data.

Bob

Storms moving across the area Monday afternoon and Monday night brought widespread heavy rain, strong winds, and some pockets of very large hail. LCRA’s Hydromet and Doppler radar estimates show the storm produced general totals of 1-2 inches across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast. Some pockets of 2-2.5 inches occurred across the Hill Country between Menard and Kingsland, and also across parts of Wharton County. LCRA’s highest gauged 24-hour total was 2.94 inches, at a location in northern Gillespie County.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 7 am Monday and 7 am Tuesday:

The wave of low pressure partially responsible for Monday night’s storms has exited to the east. Tuesday afternoon’s weather is predicted to be mostly sunny. High temperatures will range from the mid-80s across the Hill Country, to the low 90s near the coast.

Another wave of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop late this afternoon and spread across the region late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. A trough of low pressure currently located over northern Mexico is forecast to track northeast into Texas enhancing the development of thunderstorms. The atmosphere across West and Southwest Texas, along with northeastern Mexico is predicted to become moderately unstable by late afternoon and is expected to cause the development of an area of strong to severe thunderstorms across northeastern Mexico and Far West Texas late this afternoon. This activity is forecast to move to the east and southeast through the mid and late evening hours. This will take the storms across the southern Edwards Plateau and into the Hill Country, and possibly over portions of the Interstate 35 corridor. Unlike Monday’s night’s storms, it’s not clear how far east these next storms will move.

The atmosphere is forecast to be supportive for some of these storms to become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western and southern Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through early Wednesday morning. The eastern Hill Country and the area between Austin and Victoria has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The primary severe weather threats will be large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary threat of an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. In addition, we could also see some pockets of intense rainfall. Rainfall from these storms is forecast to generally average around 1-1.5 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Tuesday night’s storms are forecast to push off to the east Wednesday morning. Wednesday will feature a partly cloudy sky. Abundant moisture and lingering instability will yield a 40 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

Additional scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Thursday’s activity is not expected to be as widespread over as heavy as what is forecast for Tuesday night. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch.

Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday into Friday night as a weak cold front pushes south across the area. Rain amounts are forecast to only average around a quarter inch, or less.

The outlook for the weekend calls for generally dry weather as drier and more stable air spreads in behind Friday’s cold front. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for generally dry weather Monday, followed by a chance for showers and thunderstorms next Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy. Dry and sunny weather will follow next Thursday and Friday.  High temperatures next week are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Have a good week!

Bob

Two waves of thunderstorms moved across the Hill Country Thursday night, with each wave producing significant totals of rain across the eastern Hill Country. LCRA’s Hydromet and Doppler radar estimates show a  large area of 2-3 inch totals stretching from north of Brownwood, to near San Saba, Llano, and Blanco. Within this area of heavy rain, there were also several pockets of 4-5 inch totals. LCRA’s highest gauged 24-hour total was 6.52 inches, at a gauge located 6 miles south of San Saba. The storms fell apart before moving past Interstate 35. In addition to the heavy rain, some of Thursday night’s storms also produced large hail and damaging winds.

NWS Estimate of rain falling between 7 am Thursday and 7 am Friday:

Most of Thursday’s night storms were the result of a complex of rain and storms which had developed earlier across the Texas South Plains and then moved to the southeast. Friday’s analysis shows a more stable atmosphere in now place across the region, and a repeat of Thursday night’s storms is not anticipated.

Sunny and very hot weather is forecast Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. No rain is predicted for Friday through  Saturday.

• High temperatures through Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
• Low temperatures Saturday  and Sunday mornings will include the low and mid-70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with upper 70s towards the coast

Forecast solutions continue to point to the development of a wet and unsettled weather pattern across the region beginning late Sunday, continuing through most of next week. The ridge of high pressure currently over Texas is forecast to push off to the east this weekend as a trough of low pressure over the southwestern U.S. slowly spreads to the southern Plains. The trough will help draw moisture north from the Gulf, resulting in a moist and unstable atmosphere across much of the state next week. Weak disturbances moving over Texas and boundaries from previous day’s storms will contribute to keeping the chance for rain going through late week. The most favorable period for rain is expected to occur Monday  afternoon through Wednesday night.

A slight chance (20%) chance) for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday afternoon  as the atmosphere begins to grow unstable. The chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms will to increase to 40 percent Sunday evening and Sunday night as a small wave of low pressure approaches from the west.

Memorial Day is shaping up to be partly to mostly cloudy. Attention will be focused on the northern half of the state where a cold front will be slowly sinking to the south. Forecasts call for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front, with the storms tracking south over parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The front is forecast to reach Central Texas Tuesday morning, then sink south and pull up stationary across the coastal plains Tuesday afternoon through next Thursday. While there is no strong severe weather signal for Memorial Day and next week, given the time of year, I would not be surprised if some isolated strong to severe storms  occur next week.

The probability for rain Monday afternoon and Monday night will be near 50-60 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Across the costal plains, the probability for rain will be near 30 percent Monday afternoon, then increase to 50 percent Monday night.

For Tuesday through Wednesday night, the probability for rain showers and thunderstorms is predicted to remain near 50 percent across the entire region as passing disturbances bring additional periods of rain showers and thunderstorms.

For Thursday and Friday, the probability for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to be near 30-40 percent.

The highest totals of rain over the next week are predicted to occur Monday through Wednesday, with lower amounts expected Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecasts for the next seven days calls for widespread totals of 1-2 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with lower totals across the coastal plains. Keep in mind, these are general totals. Some isolated heavy downpours of 3-4 inches will not be out of the question.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:

Next week’s clouds and rain are expected to keep daytime temperatures less hot. Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally be in the upper 80s. Lows are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s.

The outlook for next weekend calls for just a slight chance for rain along with warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

On Thursday, NOAA issued its tropical outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasters are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The official start to hurricane season in June 1 and the season runs through November 30.

Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend!

Bob

A quick update on the forecasted weather for Memorial Day and next week. For the past couple of days, computer-forecast solutions have been consistently showing a change in the weather pattern will take place across Texas next week and this new pattern could bring widespread and potentially significant totals of rain to our region.

Weather conditions Thursday through Saturday are forecast to remain generally dry and summer-like, although there will be a slight chance (30 percent chance) for a few scattered thunderstorms across parts of the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor Thursday evening into Thursday night. Most rain amounts, if any, should stay below a quarter inch.

Sunday’s weather is predicted to be mostly sunny and continued hot. However, forecasters will be monitoring developments across West Texas Sunday afternoon where an approaching wave of low pressure is expected to cause the development of scattered thunderstorms along the dry line. The area of storms is forecast to spread east through the Hill Country and Central Texas Sunday night. The probability for rain and storms Sunday night is predicted to be near 50-60 percent. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible.

Memorial Day weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy and less hot. There will be a 50 to 60 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire region throughout the day, continuing into Monday night. A cold front is forecast to slide south across the area while a couple of waves of low pressure track northeast out of Mexico. This setup will be favorable for the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Rain amounts Sunday evening through Monday evening are forecast to average close to an inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and around a half inch towards the coast.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue next Tuesday through Wednesday, followed by lower chances for rain next Thursday and Friday.

The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through next Wednesday evening calls for totals of 1-2 inches across the Hill Country, with totals of 1-1.5 inches across the rest of the region. Depending on how this situation evolves, higher totals will certainly be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Wednesday:

Interestingly, there are signs this unsettled weather pattern may also extend into the first full week of June.

Temperatures next week will be less hot. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s.

Bob

Although parts of the northern Hill Country saw rain and scattered storms Friday, Saturday and Sunday, most of the region remained dry, warm, and very humid. Unfortunately, this week’s weather is not promising much in the way of rain for our area. There will be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday afternoon and again on Thursday. Next week’s weather is beginning to look a bit more conducive for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility for some higher totals of rain.

There will be a slight chance (20 percent chance) for a few scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor as a trough of low pressure lifts northeast out of New Mexico. This system is expected to cause an outbreak of severe weather from North Texas into the southern Plains states. Most of this activity is expected to remain well to the north of Central Texas. However, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible for the area along and west of Interstate 35 late Monday afternoon and evening as the dry line shifts east out of West Texas. The dry line is expected to serve as a focus for the development of storms. Should any thunderstorms happen to develop, they will likely become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of the northern Hill Country between Brownwood, Llano, and Temple under a 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms through Monday night. Much of the rest of the Hill Country along with the I-35 corridor between Georgetown, Austin, and San Antonio has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk.

Very spotty rain amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch can be expected.

Aside from this slight chance for thunderstorms, Monday’s weather is forecast to be mostly cloudy, warm, and humid.

• Monday’s high temperature is predicted to generally be in the low and mid-90s
• Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the mid-60s across the northern Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast

A weak Canadian cold front is forecast to push southeast across the region Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The front is expected to stall just off the middle Texas coast Tuesday night. Unfortunately, atmospheric conditions don’t appear favorable for the development of rain along the cold front. The front will bring drier and just slight cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly sunny conditions are forecast on both days.

• High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper 80s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-90s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s near the coast
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s
• Lows Thursday morning will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the mid-70s across the coastal plains

Much of the area will see a 30 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. This will take place as a small trough of low pressure tracks northeast across the region out of northern Mexico. Severe storms are not anticipated. Spotty rain amounts up to a quarter inch are forecast.

A sunny to mostly sunny sky and dry weather can be expected for Friday and Saturday.

• High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 90s
• Lows Friday through Sunday morning are predicted to be around 70-72 degrees

The outlook for Sunday and Memorial Day calls for continued partly cloudy and hot weather. However, there will also be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as a series of weak atmospheric disturbances track northeast over the region out of northern Mexico. While it’s not looking like a rainout by any means, some of the storms on Sunday and Monday could produce rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

The weather pattern for next Tuesday through Friday looks to remain unsettled as a series of low pressure troughs move over Texas out of Mexico. These passing troughs look to cause a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday through Friday.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the low and middle 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days.

Have a great week!

Bob

Despite the calendar showing it only being the middle of May, summer’s heat and humidity arrived with a vengeance this week. Unfortunately, these uncomfortable conditions aren’t expected to change all that much over the next couple of weeks. If there’s any good news here, it’s from the long-range forecast solutions telling us the current heatwave and high humidity should moderate down some starting the middle of next week, with slightly lower temperatures continuing through the end of the month. Unfortunately, no widespread or heavy rain is showing up on the weather horizon.

Friday afternoon through Monday, no significant change in the temperature is predicted. The current heat wave looks to continue. Near-record or record high temperatures are forecast through Monday. In addition, high relative humidity levels/muggy conditions can also be expected for the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions. Breezy southerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are predicted Friday through Monday.

• Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s for areas south of Interstate 10
• Daily low temperatures will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s across the coastal plains

Within this hot pattern, there will also be a slight chance for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and the Intestate 35 corridor late Friday through Monday as a series of weak disturbances push the dry line eastward out of West Texas.

Late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country, extending east to just north of Austin as a weak boundary sinks to the south. Should thunderstorms develop, they’ll have the potential to become strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

Saturday’s forecast calls for a 40 percent chance for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon as the dry line pushes to the east. There will be a 20 percent chance for some of these storms to reach the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor by Saturday evening. The atmospheric setup will be favorable for some of the storms to become severe, capable for producing large hail and damaging winds.

Sunday’s outlook calls for just a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms across the western half of the Hill Country as the dry line doesn’t get much of a push to the east.

The most favorable period for rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to take place late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning across the Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region. Forecasts call for the dry line to push east into the Hill Country Monday afternoon in advance of a Pacific cold front dropping south out of Northwest Texas. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent. The atmospheric setup appears favorable for developing storms to have the potential to become strong to severe. Note, the exact timing and coverage of rain and storms remains uncertain at this point due to the uncertain timing of the cold front. Rain amounts are forecast to remain below a quarter inch.

The cold front is expected to most likely sweep south across the region Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The front may bring a few showers to parts of the coastal plains region Tuesday afternoon, but rain amounts will be low. The chance for rain should end from west to east Tuesday afternoon as drier and slightly cooler air spreads in behind the cold front.

For next Wednesday through Friday, the weather is expected to be mostly sunny, dry, and not quite as hot. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s, with lows generally in the low and mid-60s.

The next chance for rain is expected to take shape on or just after Memorial Day.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Although the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1^st, the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing daily tropical weather outlooks.

Very quiet conditions are currently in place across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 05/16/25 12:40 pm CDT

Have a great weekend!

Bob

The spell of relatively mild temperatures our area has been experiencing for the past week is quickly coming to an end. Monday’s low temperatures included the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s to mid-50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s across the coastal plains. Going forward, we’ll likely not see this magnitude of cool air again until next fall as the summer weather pattern begins quite early this year.

It is shaping up to be a week of dangerous, record-breaking heat across all of Texas! A moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts will be in place throughout the week.

A summer-like ridge of high pressure, currently situated over Mexico and the eastern Pacific, is forecast to spread over Texas the next two to three days, causing the development of an early-season and near-historic heat wave. The Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas regions will be looking at triple-digit temperatures beginning Tuesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are predicted to be the hottest days of the week as the core of the ridge of high pressure spreads over Central Texas, bringing a mass of unusually hot air to the lower atmosphere. In addition, the West Texas dry line is forecast to push east past Intestate 35. Areas located to the west of Dry Line will likely see record-breaking temperatures all three days as dry and very hot air spreads east out of the deserts of Mexico. Temperatures are expected to tick down a couple of degrees Friday through Sunday as the center of the upper ridge shifts to the east. However, unusually hot temperatures (especially for May) look to continue through the weekend.

Temperature Forecast:

• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be near 105-107 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the coastal area
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas, with mid-90s towards the coast
• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are predicted to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s coastal plains
• Low temperatures Wednesday through Sunday mornings will range from around 70 degrees across the Hill Country, to the mid-70s across the coastal plains

In anticipation of this week’s dangerously hot temperatures, the National Weather Service has posted a Heat Advisory for all of the Hill Country and Central Texas beginning 1 pm Tuesday, continuing through 9 pm Wednesday. The advisory may be extended through late week and possibly even into the weekend. This week’s unusually hot temperatures may cause heat-related illnesses, especially since most of us are not yet acclimated to the heat. It is advised to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors the next few days.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast through Friday. However, there will be a slight chance for a few isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms for locations along and west of Interstate 35 this weekend. Forecasts indicate a few isolated thunderstorms may develop along the dry line along the Rio Grande, and spread to the east. The chance for rain will be less than 20 percent.

Looking ahead to next week, mostly sunny and hot weather looks to continue as a weaker ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas. High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid and upper 90s, with lower 90s towards the coast. There will be a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the week as the dry line remains active and southerly winds bring moisture north from the Gulf.

Fire Weather Concerns

Elevated to locally near critical fire weather conditions will be possible each afternoon throughout the week for areas along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor. As the drying and warming trend ramps up through Wednesday, it will result in very lower relative humidity values.  Breezy southerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph are forecast through Wednesday.

The dry and potentially record-setting warmth throughout the week could lead to more active fire weather conditions going forward as fuels dry out.

Have a good week.

Bob

The unsettled, wet weather pattern which has been in place since Monday is winding down. While a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Friday and Saturday afternoons, the threat for heavy rain and severe storms appears to be over. Mother’s Day weekend weather is actually expected to be fantastic, with a mostly sunny sky.

The large trough of low pressure responsible for the severe storms and heavy rain earlier this week is now located northeast of our area, across the Arklatex. However, forecasts call for the trough to sink to the southeast over  the next couple of days, reaching a position over the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Mid-level moisture wrapping around the western, or backside of the trough is forecast to spread south across Texas Friday afternoon and again on Saturday.

This moisture, combined with warming temperatures and weak atmospheric lift may spark the development of a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. The probability for rain for any given location will only be 20 percent and rain amounts should average less than a tenth of an inch. Atmospheric parameters suggest no strong or severe thunderstorms. The small chance for rain will diminish Sunday as moisture from the upper trough shifts east of our region.

Comfortable temperatures are predicted through the weekend as the upper trough causes northerly breezes with speeds of 10-15 mph across the area. Cool readings into the 50s are forecast Saturday and Sunday nights. Enjoy these mild readings as long-range forecasts suggest these will likely be the last 50 degree temperatures our region will see until next fall.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are predicted to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
• Low temperatures Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s to 60 degrees across the coastal plains

An abrupt shift to a summer-like weather pattern is forecast to take place Monday and continue through all of next week as a near summer-like ridge of high pressure spreads across Texas while the Louisiana trough shifts to the East Coast. Southerly surface winds will return Monday, bringing warmer and more humid air north from the Gulf.

No doubt about it, the big story next for next week will be the upward surge in both daytime and nighttime temperatures. Readings more typical of July are forecast throughout the week as sinking air under the ridge causes surface temperatures to heat up significantly. Expect a sunny sky and dry weather.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-80s towards the coast
• High temperatures Tuesday will include the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, the mid-90s across Central Texas, and near 90 degrees towards the coast
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are predicted to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, the mid to upper 90s across Central Texas and the low 90s across the coastal plains
• Daily low temperatures throughout next week are forecast to be around 70 degrees

Isolated to scattered rain showers and slightly lower temperatures are forecast next weekend, continuing into the following week as the center of ridge of high pressure slides east of Texas. At the same time, a trough of low pressure is forecast to slowly track to the southern Rockies and southern Plains. High temperatures are predicted to continue in the low to mid-90s.

The May Full Moon

This month’s full moon – called the Flower Moon – will occur at 11:56 am  CDT on Monday, May 12^th. While the moon won’t technically be full until Monday, the moon will still appear very bright and nearly full Saturday night and Sunday night. Interestingly, Monday’s full moon will be a micromoon, meaning the moon will be at its furthest point in orbit around the Earth.

May’s Flower Moon gets its name from the Algonquin people who recognized the blooming of wildflowers and garden flowers in May. The light of the full moon tends to give the flowers an enchanting appearance.

Have a great Mother’s Day weekend!

Bob

An wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast through Thursday as a large area of low pressure slowly lifts to the north out of the Desert Southwest. Out ahead of the primary trough Monday, a small wave of low pressure has been tracking north across Central Texas. This system caused the development of rain showers and thunderstorms across a large part of Central Texas around midday. Some of the thunderstorms produced large hail across parts of Bastrop and Williamson Counties. Meanwhile, a second complex of rain and thunderstorms has been moving from west to east across North Texas. Some of this activity has extended as far south as Abilene and Brownwood.

This afternoon through Monday night, additional showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the entire region as the atmosphere grows increasingly moist and unstable in advance of the trough moving out of New Mexico. The probability for occasional rain and thunderstorms Monday afternoon will be near 50 percent.

Attention will turn to Monday evening when large clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to develop across West Texas and the Rio Grande Plains. The area of thunderstorms are predicted to move to the east and spread across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday evening into Monday night. Forecasts then call for a second round of scattered thunderstorms to develop across the western Hill Country along a Pacific cold front before daybreak Tuesday. This area of thunderstorms is predicted to spread east across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions Monday morning into Monday afternoon.

Moderate to locally strong atmospheric instability is forecast to be in place this afternoon, tonight, and Tuesday. Because of this there will be a good potential for some of the storms to become strong to severe. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threats. However, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight, and Tuesday.

The rain and thunderstorms spreading across the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday are expected to cause moderate to locally heavy rain and at least some risk for flash flooding. Rain amounts through Tuesday evening are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches, along with isolated heavier totals.

The area of rain and thunderstorms is predicted to push east of our region Tuesday evening, with a break in the rain developing Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.

For Wednesday, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Across the coastal region, a good chance for rain showers and thunderstorms looks to continue as Tuesday’s cold front slows down and nearly stalls over the area. The probability for rain will be near 80 percent.

Thursday will see a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region as one final wave of low pressure moves across Texas. Rain amounts are not expected to be all that heavy.

Rain amounts through Thursday are forecast generally average between 1 and 2 inches, with the majority of the rain falling Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Thursday:

Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Friday and through the upcoming weekend. Expect highs in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the low 60s.

The outlook for next week calls for dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid-90s by the middle of next week.

Bob