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Amazing, astonishing and unbelievable are some of the adjectives describing Texas weather in 2004. Persistent rain through most of the year — including two exceptionally wet months in June and November — made 2004 the third wettest year in more than 100 years of record-keeping. Interestingly, none of the year's rain came from a tropical storm or hurricane. In addition to the amazing amount of rain, there were a few other interesting weather characteristics. Two inches of snow fell during February around Austin, the first significant snow the city had recorded in nearly 20 years. Summer was unusually cool due to frequent cold fronts, and there were few 100-degree temperatures. The year ended with another unusual snowstorm that stretched from the Rio Grande Valley to Houston and Galveston. For some locations, it was the most snow measured in more than 100 years. Coming out of such unusual conditions, you'd think that the weather outlook for 2005 would be more tranquil and quiet. But think again — this is Texas weather, where it's rarely stable and quiet. I expect 2005 will contain more unusual weather, more surprises and more strange twists and turns for the record books. Rainfall may lessen by this fall
Seasonal forecasts and long-term weather trends indicate that rainfall during 2005 is not likely to be as plentiful as in 2004. The weak to moderate to El Niño, partially responsible for last year's heavy rains, is expected to weaken and dissipate by summer. Tropical Pacific waters are forecast to return to near normal temperatures by mid year and possibly begin a trend toward cooler than normal levels by late year. As El Niño fades, the threat for widespread and heavy rains across Texas should decrease. I do expect rainfall to be near normal levels through spring and summer, but a trend toward below normal is expected sometime next fall or winter. Texas weather history also supports the outlook for less rain in 2005. Records show the year following an unusually wet year has never been as wet as the previous, but rainfall has generally been at or above normal. A decreased amount of rain and a fading El Niño mean temperatures should be warmer this year. Spring is expected to be a little late in getting started, but warmer than normal temperatures will follow through summer and autumn. Early forecasts for summer indicate it may be a hot one, with several days at or above 100 degrees. Is this the year for a major hurricane?
One item to watch this year is the upcoming hurricane season. The Texas coast has enjoyed an unusually quiet period, with only two hurricanes crossing the coast in the past 15 years. This is well below the long-term average of one hurricane every three years. Florida's lucky period of relatively few storms ran out last summer, with a record four hurricanes striking the coast that season. Many hurricane forecasters believe that Texas' good fortune can't last too much longer, and more hurricanes will be frequent in Texas in the near future. Could this be the year? Less rainfall, warmer temperatures and more storms is the outlook for 2005. Keep in mind this is only a rough outlook. Mother Nature is bound to have some big surprises along the way with periodic tornadoes, hail storms and high winds. Add a couple of ice and snow storms, and the weather in 2005 is likely to be anything but boring. As the old Texas weather saying goes, if you don't like the weather, just wait. It'll change soon. Bob Rose is LCRA's chief meteorologist. You can write him at bob.rose@lcra.org. |
